snowman19

No, the AMO is currently positive and very strongly positive at that

Going by past history, decades

The 1940’s-1970’s were a strong -PDO cycle, then we went into a +PDO cycle at the tail end of the 70’s. The end of the 1970’s till around 1995 was a -AMO cycle

This solar max is extremely impressive in terms of sunspots, solar flares and now geomag activity. This is the highest geomag activity we’ve seen since the early 2000’s:

We are very clearly in a long term negative PDO cycle, when this one ends is anyone’s guess. Any volcano updates?

Textbook -PDO, strengthening and getting even more well defined. JB’s +PDO wishcast isn’t looking too good….

I still remember the one winter, forgetting which one, when the record low arctic sea ice started….all the epic busted forecasts calling for major -AO blocking because the open waters were supposedly going to add moisture and cause record arctic snowpack and lead to -AO all winter. There had to be at least 5 of them. The weenies jumped all over that theory and it failed, big time @donsutherland1 I’m sure you remember that debacle well lol

Could be AGW and ++AMO related? Not really sure. As far as the AO, it was theorized years ago that the record low arctic sea ice would cause an increase in snowcover and lead to more -AO winters but that theory was a miserable failure

HM sounded the alarm at the beginning of November, 2010 that the troposphere and stratosphere were “talking” and massive, sustained high latitude -NAO/-AO blocking was coming. Again, IMO, this was due to both the solar state and the extremely east-based nature of the La Niña in the early to mid part of that winter. As soon as the event moved into the western ENSO regions by the end of January and was no longer east-based, the blocking completely folded like a deck of cards and fell apart, then winter ended for all intents and purposes in February

I think a couple of things lead to the -AO/-NAO blocking that winter (10-11)…first and foremost, the solar minimum and low geomag, it also started out as a very east-based La Niña. It migrated west as that winter wore on and became much more west-based/Modoki at the end of January, then the blocking vanished in February and it never came back again

Also, it’s suggesting more of a central based (coldest anomalies) or Modoki La Niña

@donsutherland1 He doesn’t care, that’s the thing. He will find some way, somehow to use the coldest and snowiest analogs he can no matter what. It’s kind of like how he kept repeating over and over, even into December, that the El Niño was becoming a Modoki and used 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 77-78, 02-03 and 09-10 as his analogs. And he has a real big problem if he’s going to argue for a big -NAO/-AO winter (i.e. 95-96, 10-11), possible volcanic stratosphere and +QBO aside, the solar max we are in very, very strongly argues against it. As you stated, in the last 45 years, since 79-80, every single -NAO/-AO winter we have had, without exception, has occurred during a solar minimum with low sunspots and low geomag. That’s not a coincidence. Further, SSWEs are extremely unlikely during a La Niña with a +QBO and high solar, in fact, that combination is the LEAST likely to produce a SSW, with El Niño, -QBO, low solar being the most likely to produce one

@donsutherland1 JB this morning is hyping/wishcasting a very high Atlantic ACE tropical season. Why you ask? Because he wants to use that to say 95-96 (over a 220 ACE season) is an analog and add it to the analog list he already made of 10-11, 13-14, 14-15. You can read him like a book https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Atlantic_hurricane_season#:~:text=The season's activity was reflected,1981–2010 median of 92.

Looks like this year’s solar maximum is going to be the biggest in over 20 years. Link: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/show/the-sun-is-super-active-right-now-heres-how-it-can-affect-electronics-on-earth

No but would it surprise you if the WB maps were skewed in some way to purposely show his wishcast of a +PDO?

Just like he hates the “warm biased” CFS until it shows what he wants

I wouldn’t put anything past him. Back during the winter, he purposely posted maps in degrees Celsius and snow in centimeters to make them seem colder and snowier hoping no one would notice. The man is twisted

I believe the maps are purposely skewed in some way to fit his east coast cold and snow obsession. The guy isn’t right mentally. Make no mistake about it, no matter what happens with the PDO (which will extremely likely be negative), his analogs for next winter will be 95-96, 10-11, 13-14, 14-15. It’s already a predetermined done deal in his warped mind

He doesn’t care and he knows that the majority of his weenie base doesn’t know any better. They just keep forking him over the cash. He’s a snake oil salesman, laughing all the way to the bank

Once again, he’s simply finding the coldest and snowiest winters for the east coast and saying they are “analogs” just like he does every single winter for subscription money, likes, follows and retweets from his weenie base. His next wishcast will be that 95-96 is an analog too. As predictable as the rising sun. Wash, rinse, repeat

Here comes La Niña. We already have the strong -PDO….only question remaining….do we flip to a -IOD by fall, which will really kick this into overdrive?

@GaWx @donsutherland1 Heres the paper I was looking for regarding strong +AO response to volcanic eruptions. Given this and the solar max/high geomag/sunspots, +QBO, I would say at this very early juncture that a +AO/+NAO winter is highly favored as of right now: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005JD006286

A classic, strong -PDO signature is developing, cold subsurface anomalies in the ENSO regions, all systems go for this La Niña to really take off

@Volcanic Winter Just read on twitter that the eruptions are still getting revised higher and may approach a VEI 6 in the end?