snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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If the new EPS is correct we go into a torch-a-rama pattern come mid-month. Massive -PNA trough into the west, +NAO, +AO, +EPO and the SE ridge goes bonkers
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100%. Based on the D-F 500mb, the Cansips would be a torch winter
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@bluewave Ensembles now digging a massive -PNA out west come mid-month
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The red flag was that the CFSV2 got warmer and warmer with November in the final days of October. The end of the month is when the CFS actually becomes accurate in sniffing out the following month. My guess is that the east coast drought continues and November ends up a well above normal month (temps)…..possibly a top 10 above normal November…. @michsnowfreak Yes it was very consistent with a warm November but got warmer and warmer in the final week leading up to today, which gives me even more confidence that this month is possibly going to torch
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As the old saying goes “When in drought, predict drought…..”
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The stratospheric polar vortex is going to massively strengthen during November
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We are about to see massive strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex during November
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You ain’t kidding. November is starting to look like a dry as a bone torch-a-rama @Bluewave
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Tomorrow will be the latest in the season I can ever remember having to use my A/C. The earliest was just after St. Patrick’s Day, 2012 when it hit 90 degrees
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The ensembles look like a torch and a continuation of the drought for November
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@GaWx Just looking at the anomalies, the QBO is clearly still strengthening. Last month’s number was +12 and I believe the strongest westerly/positive QBO on record at 30mb was over +15. Wondering if we may rival or top that?
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Just saw 2 raindrops. Now the sun is back out
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November is starting to look like a huge torch month, not only torch, very dry/drought continuing
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November is starting to look more and more like a torch and not only a torch, continued very dry/drought as well. Also on a side note, just eyeballing the QBO anomalies, it’s definitely still strengthening positive
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We are completely blowing the 01-02 drought out of the water
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The models are nothing more than showers for Friday and Monday/Tuesday. Would not be surprised to see them dry out more. I honestly cannot remember a period that was this dry for this long in my life
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Probably his worst bust ever. And he refused to give it up. Months and months of him insisting that the east was about to plunge into an arctic tundra. “Vodka cold is coming!” If there ever was a winter that was toast in November that was the one. November was an epic dry torch, that set the tone for the next 4 months and it was game over. Right through the end of March
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With how things have been going since late August, would anyone actually be surprised if this modeled “rain event” for early November verifies as nothing more than some showers?
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I’ll leave that one to @GaWx He’s done a bunch of research into it
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It sure has…over 250 and climbing. There’s a chance we go over 300
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So we are going to end up with a perfectly normal October SAI. Not that it mattered anyway. We spoke about it before but 14-15 rendered the entire high SAI = -AO and -NAO argument bogus. A record high SAI in 2014 and one of the most positive AO and NAO winters on record
