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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    If you get a dusting/coating with this tomorrow, consider it a win. The floor is just virga, which I think is what all areas north and west of the city see….
  2. snowman19
    IMO no way in hell is next weekend a cutter or inland runner/hugger. The risk is OTS. If I’m wrong tear me apart…..
  3. snowman19
    The NAM loves doing this with literally every storm at this range. It has 2 runs where it over amps/comes north of all the other guidance, then it pulls the rug out in subsequent runs
  4. snowman19
  5. snowman19
    With the amount of times the NAM has done something like this in the past only to burn us in the end I take its solutions with a huge grain of salt
  6. snowman19
    “Buckle up!!”
  7. snowman19
    The GEFS has it now too
  8. snowman19
    The people who were hyping a historic, record east coast snowstorm (KU) pattern for 1/1 - 1/15, even mentioning blizzards, repeated tweets of “buckle up!” and invoking January, 1996 as a very good analog, look to be in the exact same boat as the historic arctic cold crowd
  9. snowman19
    Once the RNA kicks in (especially in a -ENSO) you want some semblance of -NAO or the SE ridge will go wild, especially if convection starts firing in the SE….latent/sensible heat release aloft strengths the SE ridge. As we’ve seen time and again the models will grossly underestimate the SE ridge at range and get stronger and stronger as we move closer in time which ends up resulting in inland runner and cutter tracks when you don’t have a -NAO counteracting it somewhat
  10. snowman19
    Those are RMM plots are noisy. The VP/OLR anomaly maps are more accurate and they show a decided push into the IO phases late month. Pray for -NAO to tame what’s likely going to be a -PNA/RNA developing
  11. snowman19
    Yea, the models (ensembles and operationals) are showing the mid-late month pattern starting to break down with some troughing beginning to push into the west around 1/18
  12. snowman19
    20-21 worked in February because you had a solar minimum that allowed the locked in -NAO/-AO blocking. The QBO and MJO progression was also different
  13. snowman19
    Definite signal on the EURO for a -PNA late month
  14. snowman19
    There are signs at the end of the month
  15. snowman19
    When you consider that the models are likely rushing it some, that actual change is probably during the last week of this month
  16. snowman19
    The 1980’s called, they want their winter back…
  17. snowman19
    The ensembles are starting to hint at a late month retrogression and pattern change
  18. snowman19
    The tropical forcing progression supports the pattern breaking down but after mid-month. The models are likely rushing it. It’s probably more along the lines of the blocking and cold starting to break down around 1/20 or just after
  19. snowman19
    There’s a couple of issues besides the record warm Hudson Bay and the wide open waters there….The total lack of snowcover in the northeast/bare ground and the still unfrozen, open Great Lakes. That airmass, though arctic, is going to modify a lot by the time it reaches the east coast
  20. snowman19
    As soon as I saw Joe Bastardi hyping big east coast snowstorms and blizzards for 1/1 - 1/15 I knew that period was doomed. That guy is the ultimate kiss of death for snow in the east. He curses it every time
  21. snowman19
    This may well be a case of Bernie Rayno’s rule of having to wait until we are on the end/backside of the arctic outbreak before an event happens. 1/1 - 1/15 may well end up dry. It might take until all the blocking is breaking down and the cold is pulling out before something happens. Here’s a good disco:
  22. snowman19
    ^New February CANSIPS Expected tropical forcing:
  23. snowman19
  24. snowman19
    So far, despite some early indications back at the end of November that it would couple, the strong SPV has remained decoupled from the troposphere. All indications are that it stays strong, which fits the -ENSO/+QBO/solar max states. Question is, like you mentioned, does it continue to stay decoupled? @bluewave
  25. snowman19
    Obviously not 100% fool proof everytime, but I think the old Bernie Rayno snowstorm rule is pretty accurate. You get snow on either the front side or back side of arctic outbreaks. So it usually either comes immediately following an arctic cold injection as the blocking is setting up or just as the blocking is breaking down and the cold is pulling out. Does that rule work out this time? Who knows
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