snowman19

Also, it’s suggesting more of a central based (coldest anomalies) or Modoki La Niña

@donsutherland1 He doesn’t care, that’s the thing. He will find some way, somehow to use the coldest and snowiest analogs he can no matter what. It’s kind of like how he kept repeating over and over, even into December, that the El Niño was becoming a Modoki and used 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 77-78, 02-03 and 09-10 as his analogs. And he has a real big problem if he’s going to argue for a big -NAO/-AO winter (i.e. 95-96, 10-11), possible volcanic stratosphere and +QBO aside, the solar max we are in very, very strongly argues against it. As you stated, in the last 45 years, since 79-80, every single -NAO/-AO winter we have had, without exception, has occurred during a solar minimum with low sunspots and low geomag. That’s not a coincidence. Further, SSWEs are extremely unlikely during a La Niña with a +QBO and high solar, in fact, that combination is the LEAST likely to produce a SSW, with El Niño, -QBO, low solar being the most likely to produce one

@donsutherland1 JB this morning is hyping/wishcasting a very high Atlantic ACE tropical season. Why you ask? Because he wants to use that to say 95-96 (over a 220 ACE season) is an analog and add it to the analog list he already made of 10-11, 13-14, 14-15. You can read him like a book https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Atlantic_hurricane_season#:~:text=The season's activity was reflected,1981–2010 median of 92.

Looks like this year’s solar maximum is going to be the biggest in over 20 years. Link: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/show/the-sun-is-super-active-right-now-heres-how-it-can-affect-electronics-on-earth

No but would it surprise you if the WB maps were skewed in some way to purposely show his wishcast of a +PDO?

Just like he hates the “warm biased” CFS until it shows what he wants

I wouldn’t put anything past him. Back during the winter, he purposely posted maps in degrees Celsius and snow in centimeters to make them seem colder and snowier hoping no one would notice. The man is twisted

I believe the maps are purposely skewed in some way to fit his east coast cold and snow obsession. The guy isn’t right mentally. Make no mistake about it, no matter what happens with the PDO (which will extremely likely be negative), his analogs for next winter will be 95-96, 10-11, 13-14, 14-15. It’s already a predetermined done deal in his warped mind

He doesn’t care and he knows that the majority of his weenie base doesn’t know any better. They just keep forking him over the cash. He’s a snake oil salesman, laughing all the way to the bank

Once again, he’s simply finding the coldest and snowiest winters for the east coast and saying they are “analogs” just like he does every single winter for subscription money, likes, follows and retweets from his weenie base. His next wishcast will be that 95-96 is an analog too. As predictable as the rising sun. Wash, rinse, repeat

Here comes La Niña. We already have the strong -PDO….only question remaining….do we flip to a -IOD by fall, which will really kick this into overdrive?

@GaWx @donsutherland1 Heres the paper I was looking for regarding strong +AO response to volcanic eruptions. Given this and the solar max/high geomag/sunspots, +QBO, I would say at this very early juncture that a +AO/+NAO winter is highly favored as of right now: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005JD006286

A classic, strong -PDO signature is developing, cold subsurface anomalies in the ENSO regions, all systems go for this La Niña to really take off

@Volcanic Winter Just read on twitter that the eruptions are still getting revised higher and may approach a VEI 6 in the end?

After the utter debacle last winter, I’ll never look at those again

This is looking to possibly be a “high end” VEI 5, cumulative, when all is said and done. Like you said, extremely impressive

Classic tropical volcanic eruptions that get into the stratosphere typically cause +AO (NAM)/+NAO the 1st winter after an eruption. Then -AO/-NAO is favored the 2nd winter after

I am referring to the potential volcanic effects yes. I don’t think AGW is going anywhere anytime soon, in fact, it may even get worse @donsutherland1 Thoughts?

Looking like we are going to have a potentially interesting setup taking shape…possible volcanic stratosphere?, -IOD by fall?, strong La Niña (orientation TBD - east based/basin wide/Modoki?), -PDO, high solar max/high geomag/high sunspots, +QBO, ++AMO….

This is a big deal. These are classic tropical volcanic eruptions back to back (cumulative VEI 5 possibly) injecting sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere. This definitely has implications for the winter….volcanic stratosphere @GaWx @donsutherland1

If we should go -IOD I think this Niña really takes off, i.e. 73-74, 88-89. I wish him a lot of luck with those +PDO wishcasts, I think he’s going to need it

He will still be predicting cold and snow on Memorial Day weekend. He’s living in an alternative universe all to his own

It feels like a June morning right now

We are primed for a very strong La Niña event. If the IOD goes negative like the CFS monthly is suggesting, it’s really off to the races, i.e. 73-74, 88-89.