snowman19

95-96 was not only weak, it was a very atypical Niña because it had a +PDO. That is why Joe Bastardi is wishcasting a +PDO so hard right now….he is dying for any excuse to say it’s an “analog” so he can add it to his already predetermined list of 10-11, 13-14, 14-15 for this winter. It’s also the reason why he’s hyping a super high ACE Atlantic tropical season with recurves. Anything to predict another very cold and very snowy winter for the east coast

I agree. I think there is definitely an above normal chance of a strong La Niña. That said, do I think it gets to the levels of 73-74 or 88-89? Probably not, since those 2 are the strongest Nina’s on record

I strongly suspect this event’s ONI synchs with the MEI and RONI this time around and is very well coupled. -PDO/-PMM/La Niña. Also, the models continue to get weaker and weaker with the +IOD this summer and have it neutral by fall. I think this trend continues and we go -IOD this fall into winter, which fits normal La Niña climo. Given this, very good chance this Niña reaches strong status IMO. Models show this event migrating west rather quickly into a “Modoki” configuration by winter. The +AMO shows no sign of letting up and just continues to get more impressive, which I believe is a by product of AGW I also think we need to keep an eye on the 2 recent volcanic eruptions which not only made it into the stratosphere but also reached a cumulative VEI 5. These were classic tropical volcanic eruptions that injected sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere and it may have a significant impact on this winter’s NAM/AO state along with the +QBO and high solar flux

They were also all low geomag

Besides the robust RONI, it looks like there’s not going to be a disconnect with the MEI like there was last year. This time around, the PDO is going to cooperate (negative) with ENSO, as is the PMM (negative). The PMM and PDO were the main reasons for the MEI disconnect last year. Also, the models continue to back off the +IOD they had been projecting….This leads me to believe that a strong La Niña has a very good chance of developing and that the models correct stronger with this event as we go forward

Agree. A -PDO/Nina along with +NAO/+AO = SE ridge on roids, especially with the +AMO tendency the last several years to amplify the SE ridge. If there’s no -NAO to “tame” it, then it’s going to run amok

When does NNE not have a decent snow season? Lol Anyway, 07-08 may not be bad, still a long way to go. I’m not making a final judgement until November. That said, I have a very strong suspicion like you do that the AO and NAO aren’t going to cooperate nor do I believe that the PNA is going to either

A few models are now showing a rapid transition to a “Modoki” Niña configuration by winter

Given the already relentless background Niña state in the PAC (strong -PDO), and I strongly suspect a -IOD develops this fall into winter, if this Niña reaches 88-89 or 73-74 strength, this winter will definitely be in very, very serious trouble IMO. The 88-89 winter was wall to wall ++AO/++NAO

Not surprising, but the new Copernicus model runs have started to back off the +IOD. It did not fit anyway, +IOD/Nina’s are extremely rare. The models have it going neutral into fall now. My guess is that the IOD flips negative this fall into winter, which would fit typical Niña climo

If this La Niña does in fact become strong, the most recent example we have that went from super El Niño right to strong La Niña would be 98-99

Correct. 1995-96 was, 1998-99 wasn’t. Just looking at those quickly as examples

Over the last decade, factors like the PDO, AMO, ENSO, solar, IOD, volcanic, have been more dependable in winter outlooks than have arctic sea ice or Siberian snowcover, both of which have largely been debacles. Not great, but better than those 2. I suspect it’s largely related to AGW. Basically, there’s no denying anymore that AGW is having a HUGE effect on our climate, really big

Doubtful lol

Good info. This solar setup, along with the possible volcanic stratosphere, +QBO/La Nina (possible Modoki?) is a strong signal for +NAO/+AO with a decreased chance of SSWs. Also, the +AMO is a stronger than normal signal for a juiced up SE ridge IMO

IMO very good evidence for a strong -PDO this coming winter despite what Mr. Bastardi is saying. It’s strengthening right now. Also looks to be a moderate La Niña at the very least, possibly strong, especially if the IOD goes negative this fall

HM did an extensive write up many years ago on why low geomag correlates with -NAO/-AO. Wish I still had it. It fits with Gawx’s finding that all of our “recent” -NAO/-AO winters (since 79-80) have occurred during a solar minimum with a low number of sunspots

He’s going to ride the +PDO/high Atlantic ACE train like sea biscuit. Even if it doesn’t work out, he will still find some way, some how to say 95-96, 10-11, 13-14, 14-15 are analogs

It’s obviously still extremely early, but yes, as of right now it looks very ugly. At least a moderate, possibly strong La Niña, some models are suggesting a Modoki Niña event, +QBO (when combined with a Niña and high solar makes SSWEs very unlikely, +QBO/Nina also supports less I-95 snowfall than -QBO/Nina per Joe D’Aleo’s research), strong -PDO, solar max, high sunspot numbers, very high geomag, ++AMO (seems to support a stronger SE ridge), very likely -IOD come fall into winter (supports Maritime Continent/Eastern IO MJO 4-6 forcing and a stronger La Niña), possible volcanic stratosphere with the recent high-end VEI 5 tropical volcanic eruptions, I guess a high Atlantic ACE tropical season with recurves would be a possible plus for the NAO, however, as Gawx pointed out, literally every single -NAO/-AO winter we have had in the last 45+ years, without exception, since 79-80, has occurred during a solar minimum with a low number of sunspots and low geomag. Arctic sea ice and Siberian snowcover buildup TBD this fall, however, both of those have been pure voodoo, as we have seen over the last decade…..

But yet JB posts it on the paid site anyway for his east coast weenie base who don’t know any better. $$$$

Very clearly way off and makes zero sense. Only the completely delusional (JB) would believe that

The new Copernicus model run has started to back off the strength of the +IOD this summer and most have it neutral by September. Not a surprise since a +IOD La Niña is extremely rare. My guess is that the IOD goes negative this fall which would fit Niña climo @bluewave

JB has already decided that this winter is going to be severely cold and snowy. No matter what happens between now and November, he will find any excuse humanly possible to predict that

We are experiencing the most extreme geomag storm possible…G5 https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/severe-geomagnetic-storm-watch-issued-unusual-solar-event/