snowman19

Just law of averages, eventually this rut is going to break, however, if I’m a betting man, this coming winter isn’t going to be the one that’s going to do it

Before my time, but it seems like we are into the throws of a 1979-1993 type of rut with bad winters. Only difference between now and then is that 13+ year period was actually cold, just had way below average snow. This one is an all out torch with way below average snow

As of right now, I see these being the main drivers going into winter: -PDO, La Niña, +AMO, solar, +QBO, AGW, any *possible* volcanic effects on the stratosphere TBD. With the IOD being neutral, I don’t see it being as big of a player as it has been the last few years. That said, if the IOD does go negative this fall (and I think it will), that will only favor the MJO in phases 4-7 even more, as if it needs any help staying in those phases semi permanently anyway. -IOD/Nina favors Maritime Continent and eastern IO forcing

Although the -PDO and +AMO are the 2 main drivers right now and will continue to be, ENSO is going to become the 3rd driver within a few months. Everything continues to point to a very significant La Niña despite what the warm biased Euro may be showing. I’m becoming more confident this ends up being a moderate to strong Niña event

19-20 was driven by the record ++IOD and also the strongly +AMO and to an extent by AGW. It lead to the SPV on roids and the severely positive NAO/AO that was unrelenting all winter long

The Euro is on its own and has had a warm bias, see last year. Given the real time observations and antecedent conditions we have right now, it’s all systems go for at least a moderate event. When you see tropical instability waves this well developed, it tells you a very significant Niña is on the way, despite what the Euro may be showing

The February, 2018 historic SSW and subsequent huge AO/NAO blocking in March fit the “script” of La Niña, -QBO, low solar being very favorable for SSWEs. The most unfavorable combo for SSWEs would be Niña/+QBO/high solar

Yes. 17-18*

Agree on all points. The models are showing this Niña event rather quickly becoming “Modoki” as we head into winter. 16-17 was exclusively east-based, as you said. Solar, QBO, PDO, AGW….not even close. Just to add, we didn’t have the MJO stuck in phases 4-7 back then and the AMO wasn’t ridiculously positive as it is now, helping to feedback into the SE ridge and magnify it edit: *17-18

@40/70 Benchmark @GaWx Good info on QBO states during La Nina’s, also discusses solar. Link: http://blog.northgeorgiawx.com/weather-blog/ninas-qbos-and-our-winter-weather

Given the rapidly developing Niña, the SST configuration in the PAC and the overall cycle, would not surprise me at all to see a strong to very strong -PDO winter

I wish I had a dollar for everytime the usual suspects on twitter said 95-96 was the analog when there is a La Niña

If that happens the RONI will be rivaling 73-74 and 88-89

That is true, we won’t know when the solar peak occurred until after it already happened. Early 2025 is just an educated guess by the experts right now

Maybe, question is when in “early” 2025 does it peak and start descending? Is it January, February, March?

@40/70 Benchmark I wonder if this ends up being more of a factor than people, including myself were thinking with the Atlantic hurricane season? Could it possibly cause all the record tropical season forecasts to bust IF it continues?

Not disagreeing with you. Either way it looks like this solar max is going to peak sometime in early 2025, then we start descending

With the epic furnace in the Atlantic (++AMO), if this (dust) continues, it may be the only thing that could help cap the number of cyclones that form this hurricane season, otherwise it’s probably going to be real bad given the other antecedent conditions globally

“How long does solar maximum last? Though solar maximum is often referred to in terms of the month where the sunspot number peaks, the associated period of high activity lasts longer than that — from one year to over two years. So, in the current solar maximum, we expect high levels of solar activity throughout 2024 and likely into 2025.” https://www.space.com/what-is-solar-maximum-and-when-will-it-happen#:~:text=Though%20solar%20maximum%20is%20often,2024%20and%20likely%20into%202025.

If you look back at every -NAO/-AO winter over the last 44+ years, since 1979, every single one of them occurred at a solar minimum, with a low number of sunspots and low geomag…..Without any exceptions. I don’t think we need to be at the exact peak of this solar max for it to be hostile to AO/NAO blocking. The high solar flux/high sunspots/high geomag alone argue very strongly against any sustained blocking in those domains this winter. That said, some experts are predicting that this solar max cycle peaks this winter/early next year. This should be an interesting one to watch

Agreed. When you see tropical instability waves that well pronounced, you know it means business. I think we see enhanced trades and easterly wind bursts (triggering upwelling and surface/subsurface cooling) shortly, which is typical with this kind of progression

This SSTA animation is showing very well defined tropical instability waves (“TIWs”), which are indicative of real healthy La Niña event developing. Enhanced trade winds and easterly wind bursts usually follow. To me, this suggests that at the very least, a moderate event becoming more and more likely. It is forming more rapidly than both ‘98 and ‘10 were at this point in time @GaWx

This high solar cycle continues to overperform

The furnace south of the Aleutians (if it continues), would strongly support Aleutian ridging/Aleutian high going into the cold season. Which would fit typical Niña climo

As of now, I doubt an ONI that low too, the RONI however may be a different matter