snowman19

The -PDO is feeding back and reenforcing itself. High pressure regime after high pressure regime in the North Pacific, -PNA and furnace SSTs off of Japan with no end in sight. Given the developing La Niña, I think we continue with this record negative PDO cycle

July’s EWB is starting to look real impressive on the models, that’s almost certainly going to trigger an upwelling Kelvin wave and probably initiate big surface and subsurface cooling. Looks like we are in for a big SOI spike too with convection moving into the maritimes. Also noticed the IOD has taken on more of a negative signature, still technically neutral, but it’s getting very close to a classic -IOD configuration

I agree. We saw the same mistake right around this time last year when people were saying the El Niño wasn’t “taking off” and wouldn’t get any stronger than moderate

https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2024ClDy...62.2925W/abstract

I sure wish Isotherm and HM still posted here so they could chime in on this very topic

I’d say no. We’ve been in a La Niña state for years now. Even though last year’s ENSO was El Niño that’s where it ended, the extratropical state, PDO, PMM and the MJO forcing was pure Niña, stuck in phases 4-7. At no point really, other than the official ENSO SSTs were we in a classic Nino atmosphere

In the unlikely event it goes La Nada, we will still have the strong La Niña background state (-PDO/-PMM) and the semipermanent Nina like forcing (MJO 4-6). With the neutral ENSO you would be at the mercy of those other factors, plus a +QBO and the high solar flux and any *possible?* volcanic effects on the stratosphere. Then 2001-2002 would become an analog IMO and I can’t imagine how much warmer such a scenario would be in today’s AGW, low arctic sea ice and ++AMO climate

Solar cycle, El Niño and La Niña: https://www.universetoday.com/35133/solar-cycle-triggers-la-nina-el-nino-like-climate-shifts/

People are being way too fast to declare this Niña a dud. The EWB has yet to even hit. People made this same mistake last year with the Nino, right around this time, saying a weak or moderate Nino was favored and we all know what happened in the end. Absolutely nothing right now supports La Nada and everything still supports a moderate event despite what the models may show happening

The SOI can definitely be fickle at times. My guess is when the MJO convection starts firing in the Maritimes, as is being projected, we see the SOI rise, possibly substantially, then you see the big trades/EWB response

The 60’s also had the strong -PDO cycle but featured strong -AO/-NAO winters. The difference now IMO is the ridiculously ++AMO and AGW. It’s also possible that the record low arctic sea ice is playing some sort of role. Over the last decade, Judah’s Siberian snowcover buildup (SAI) has been totally useless predicting the NAM/NAO states. Other things like solar cycle, QBO, tropical forcing, ENSO states and volcanism also have roles, but they also had roles in the 60’s…..something obviously changed in a big way @40/70 Benchmark Thoughts?

The ensembles are still suggesting a very strong high pressure regime setting up over the North PAC, if this is correct, it would support strong trade winds going into July with obvious ENSO effects and also supports continuation of the strong -PDO…..

Just keep in mind that this is before the projected easterly wind burst which would cause upwelling and cooling

I think once the enhanced trades get going we see pretty substantial upwelling and cooling. This burst coming up looks like it means business. But yea, watch and see for now

Great stuff as always. I know you are also of the opinion that if this La Niña “gets going” and it appears that it is now, it should have no problem going moderate. From what I see, it appears that we are definitely all systems go into July

Support is growing for MJO convection moving into the Maritime Continent, which is favorable for La Niña strengthening going into July. This would increase trade wind bursts/EWBs and raise the SOI. Just looking at the overall synoptic picture, everything else (tropical instability waves, -PDO, -PMM, high pressure building in the North Pacific, IOD taking on a negative signature) is favorable for continued Niña development

There is a theory that solar max actually supports Nina’s and solar min supports Ninos. Why? Solar max = more radiation and UV heating the surface/troposphere = stronger trade winds = La Niña. Solar min = less radiation and UV heating the surface/troposphere = weaker trade winds = El Niño

Also, appears to be central-based too

Ridiculous and it’s not even July yet….

@Stormchaserchuck1 Correct me if I’m wrong, but I remember reading a study several years ago that correlated a June tripole in the Atlantic to a -NAO winter. I forget the exact details, but basically it argued a very strong correlation to a tripole showing up in June, then “going away” and resurfacing by winter. It showed that the anomalies sink underneath the surface after June then come back to the surface in winter. I assume the inferno SSTs around New Foundland right now is definitely not what we want to see, nothing even close to any semblance of a tripole so far this month

We are in agreement on pretty much everything. Let’s see what happens over the next 5 months, but as it all stands right now, it looks very ugly for winter. Unless there are some major, large scale synoptic changes all around (from PAC to ATL to tropics to arctic to stratosphere to solar) between now and November, I think we may be in real big trouble. That said, seasonal snowfall is always the biggest wildcard, cliche, but it only takes one big luck storm to skew the entire season…..

Lol I mean the PAC is almost always the main driver with everything moving west-east unless you have a winter of anomalous, predominate strong NAO/AO blocking

@Gawx These heatdomes just serving to further increase the already boiling SSTs in the western Atlantic (+AMO), feeding back into the seemingly never ending cycle of amplifying the SE ridge/WAR during winter