snowman19

Yea, assuming we don’t get NAO/AO help, which seems like a real good bet, I guess pray for a poleward Aleutian ridge (-WPO), given the Niña, -PDO/-PMM and an MJO probably favoring Maritime Continent and eastern IO phases 4-6, especially if the IOD goes negative, I doubt we see a favorable PNA or EPO for any extended periods

I know you weren’t. Right now, 95-96 is an absolutely horrific analog and should not even be a thought. It only exists as an analog in JB’s weenie world of make believe. In any given year something unexpected can happen, i.e. 19-20 when pretty much everyone was expecting a cold and snowy winter, then the ++IOD came along and ruined the party

Now that’s interesting. Despite the hype, high Atlantic ACE doesn’t automatically = blocking

The only issues (2) that I have synoptically with 10-11 is the current solar state and the *possible* upcoming Modoki configuration of this La Niña….

Right. The “cold” in that region of the IO he’s showing corresponds to -IOD, which is actually very likely and will only serve to strengthen the Niña along with the -PDO and -PMM. I guess he doesn’t care that it also shows the -PDO and a central based/Modoki Niña, which contradicts a big part of his analogs but that won’t stop him from using them anyway because they fit his cold and snowy east coast winter agenda, which is why he’s wishcasting high Atlantic ACE as a fallback in case that happens

@Gawx Oh the irony. Now he’s posting the CFS showing a strong Modoki La Niña come November AND a -PDO

Very nice. I remember HM’s write up at the end of the 10-11 winter….he said the high latitude AO/NAO blocking was due to the solar cycle. Even though solar activity was rising that winter, it was coming off a solar minimum and had low sunspots and low geomag, which HM said caused the extreme blocking early-mid winter. It was also a very east-based Niña until late January, which I believe also played a big role

Yep. -QBO was a big part of the reason 95-96 played out like it did besides being during a solar minimum, +PDO, weak Niña and well before AGW started to have a huge impact on our climate

Agree with you on the peak. Also agree with you that it likely becomes a Modoki event rather quickly

Atmospherically and oceanically, (-PDO, -PMM, neutral IOD, most likely turning negative), it’s all systems go for this La Niña. It will have no problem coupling. Would not be surprised at all if we see a strong event

Strongly agree. And the earlier “This Niña isn’t going to couple well and strengthen because of the +IOD” argument by some on twitter is very rapidly falling apart like the IOD is

95-96 was a very weak Niña, +PDO and -QBO. 13-14 was cold-neutral/La Nada, 14-15 was ++PDO and a Modoki Niño which lead to extreme +PNA and -EPO blocking. 10-11 was a solar minimum with low geomag and a low number of sunspots, it was also an extremely east-based La Niña until late January when it migrated west and became a Modoki event, then all the high latitude blocking completely disappeared in February and never came back again….not a coincidence. The only reason JB is using them as “analogs” is because they were cold and snowy winters for the east coast

If you can, years that went into a La Niña, solar max, volcanic, +QBO and -PDO. The AMO is so anomalously positive right now, there are no analogs for that

@40/70 Benchmark The +IOD made no sense anyway…

95-96 was not only weak, it was a very atypical Niña because it had a +PDO. That is why Joe Bastardi is wishcasting a +PDO so hard right now….he is dying for any excuse to say it’s an “analog” so he can add it to his already predetermined list of 10-11, 13-14, 14-15 for this winter. It’s also the reason why he’s hyping a super high ACE Atlantic tropical season with recurves. Anything to predict another very cold and very snowy winter for the east coast

I agree. I think there is definitely an above normal chance of a strong La Niña. That said, do I think it gets to the levels of 73-74 or 88-89? Probably not, since those 2 are the strongest Nina’s on record

I strongly suspect this event’s ONI synchs with the MEI and RONI this time around and is very well coupled. -PDO/-PMM/La Niña. Also, the models continue to get weaker and weaker with the +IOD this summer and have it neutral by fall. I think this trend continues and we go -IOD this fall into winter, which fits normal La Niña climo. Given this, very good chance this Niña reaches strong status IMO. Models show this event migrating west rather quickly into a “Modoki” configuration by winter. The +AMO shows no sign of letting up and just continues to get more impressive, which I believe is a by product of AGW I also think we need to keep an eye on the 2 recent volcanic eruptions which not only made it into the stratosphere but also reached a cumulative VEI 5. These were classic tropical volcanic eruptions that injected sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere and it may have a significant impact on this winter’s NAM/AO state along with the +QBO and high solar flux

They were also all low geomag

Besides the robust RONI, it looks like there’s not going to be a disconnect with the MEI like there was last year. This time around, the PDO is going to cooperate (negative) with ENSO, as is the PMM (negative). The PMM and PDO were the main reasons for the MEI disconnect last year. Also, the models continue to back off the +IOD they had been projecting….This leads me to believe that a strong La Niña has a very good chance of developing and that the models correct stronger with this event as we go forward

Agree. A -PDO/Nina along with +NAO/+AO = SE ridge on roids, especially with the +AMO tendency the last several years to amplify the SE ridge. If there’s no -NAO to “tame” it, then it’s going to run amok

When does NNE not have a decent snow season? Lol Anyway, 07-08 may not be bad, still a long way to go. I’m not making a final judgement until November. That said, I have a very strong suspicion like you do that the AO and NAO aren’t going to cooperate nor do I believe that the PNA is going to either

A few models are now showing a rapid transition to a “Modoki” Niña configuration by winter

Given the already relentless background Niña state in the PAC (strong -PDO), and I strongly suspect a -IOD develops this fall into winter, if this Niña reaches 88-89 or 73-74 strength, this winter will definitely be in very, very serious trouble IMO. The 88-89 winter was wall to wall ++AO/++NAO

Not surprising, but the new Copernicus model runs have started to back off the +IOD. It did not fit anyway, +IOD/Nina’s are extremely rare. The models have it going neutral into fall now. My guess is that the IOD flips negative this fall into winter, which would fit typical Niña climo