
snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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If anything, for what it’s worth the models are showing straight east-west tracks and not recurves. They have been showing this for a few months now and still are. FL may be screwed
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Total collapse of the +IOD. Neutral now. You can also see the very beginnings of a -IOD signature starting to develop. Big fail for the models that were showing a stout +IOD this summer back in March and April. This only lends more support to a healthy La Niña event forming
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The 14-15 winter was ++PDO driven. It wasn’t just positive, it was record positive, it fed back and lead to the relentless -EPO/+PNA/-WPO that winter. Totally PAC driven winter
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While the strong -PDO and accompanying -PNA cycle is definitely playing a major role, I also think the ridiculously positive AMO is magnifying and feeding back into the SE ridge. The “stuck” MJO 4-7 may also be playing a role too
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Agree. I can absolutely see the RONI going strong while the ONI is only moderate with this event
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Neutral/La Nada is extremely unlikely this year, besides the point though. That aside, when was the last time, in the last 10 years that DT hasn’t put out a cold and snowy in the East forecast going into the season, only to do a complete 180 and retract it mid-winter, say it was wrong, then go on to attack and lambaste anyone who disagrees with with him, calling them idiots, morons, cursing at them like a sailor, wishing diseases on them and going on profanity filled rants?
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That relentless, resilient heat wave in the WPAC around the maritime tells me at this real early stage that we are very likely to see MJO waves favoring phases 4-7 once again this coming winter, especially given the developing Niña. Wash, rinse, repeat
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Which is exactly why DT saying that a neutral winter with a -PDO along with the other background factors we have this year would be good for winter is truly perplexing
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DT lol The guy who wishes cancer on people and hasn’t gotten a winter forecast right in the last 10 years, then completely jumps ship and bails on his own forecast in the middle of winter and visciously attacks anyone who disagrees with him. He’s a reprehensible person and real lousy at winter forecasts
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After this past winter with the epic fail of the models for February, the horrible MJO projections, I take them with a huge grain of salt. Even last year we had models that failed to predict the actual trimonthly strength of the Nino, both too warm and too cold. Looking at real time observations and antecedent conditions, surface and subsurface temps, PDO, PMM, trade winds, IOD, tropical instability waves, past ENSO transitions, RONI, etc., this leads me to still believe we see at least a moderate La Niña event despite what the models may be showing in their month to month runs. I see no reason to change that guess right now
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Just law of averages, eventually this rut is going to break, however, if I’m a betting man, this coming winter isn’t going to be the one that’s going to do it
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Before my time, but it seems like we are into the throws of a 1979-1993 type of rut with bad winters. Only difference between now and then is that 13+ year period was actually cold, just had way below average snow. This one is an all out torch with way below average snow
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As of right now, I see these being the main drivers going into winter: -PDO, La Niña, +AMO, solar, +QBO, AGW, any *possible* volcanic effects on the stratosphere TBD. With the IOD being neutral, I don’t see it being as big of a player as it has been the last few years. That said, if the IOD does go negative this fall (and I think it will), that will only favor the MJO in phases 4-7 even more, as if it needs any help staying in those phases semi permanently anyway. -IOD/Nina favors Maritime Continent and eastern IO forcing
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Although the -PDO and +AMO are the 2 main drivers right now and will continue to be, ENSO is going to become the 3rd driver within a few months. Everything continues to point to a very significant La Niña despite what the warm biased Euro may be showing. I’m becoming more confident this ends up being a moderate to strong Niña event
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19-20 was driven by the record ++IOD and also the strongly +AMO and to an extent by AGW. It lead to the SPV on roids and the severely positive NAO/AO that was unrelenting all winter long
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The Euro is on its own and has had a warm bias, see last year. Given the real time observations and antecedent conditions we have right now, it’s all systems go for at least a moderate event. When you see tropical instability waves this well developed, it tells you a very significant Niña is on the way, despite what the Euro may be showing
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The February, 2018 historic SSW and subsequent huge AO/NAO blocking in March fit the “script” of La Niña, -QBO, low solar being very favorable for SSWEs. The most unfavorable combo for SSWEs would be Niña/+QBO/high solar
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Yes. 17-18*
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Agree on all points. The models are showing this Niña event rather quickly becoming “Modoki” as we head into winter. 16-17 was exclusively east-based, as you said. Solar, QBO, PDO, AGW….not even close. Just to add, we didn’t have the MJO stuck in phases 4-7 back then and the AMO wasn’t ridiculously positive as it is now, helping to feedback into the SE ridge and magnify it edit: *17-18
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@40/70 Benchmark @GaWx Good info on QBO states during La Nina’s, also discusses solar. Link: http://blog.northgeorgiawx.com/weather-blog/ninas-qbos-and-our-winter-weather
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Given the rapidly developing Niña, the SST configuration in the PAC and the overall cycle, would not surprise me at all to see a strong to very strong -PDO winter
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I wish I had a dollar for everytime the usual suspects on twitter said 95-96 was the analog when there is a La Niña
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If that happens the RONI will be rivaling 73-74 and 88-89
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That is true, we won’t know when the solar peak occurred until after it already happened. Early 2025 is just an educated guess by the experts right now