snowman19

Pretty much agree. Pray that high ACE forecast works out, because if that’s a fail, I don’t know we avoid an all out disaster outside of interior northern New England

The CSU high ACE forecast is pretty much the only thing that looks good right now, unless there are very drastic changes in the next 4 months

It’s scary to think how warm the upcoming winter for the CONUS and even parts of Canada would be with a well poleward displaced jet (in combination with AGW) like the Euro is suggesting

If we assume it’s not deep enough with the RNA/-PNA again (possible given the strong -PDO), it doesn’t get much uglier than that…..flat Aleutian ridge, ++AO/++NAO, SE ridge/WAR on steroids

Verbatim, that’s a warmer version of the 88-89 La Niña disaster

Correct me if I’m wrong but I believe that the New Foundland warm pool is a very strong signal for +NAO

This month is becoming increasingly favorable for strengthening for several reasons as I outlined in my post this morning. We made this same mistake last year at this time with the El Niño, when people were saying it wasn’t strengthening and was likely to never get any stronger than moderate. The brand new NMME run is still showing a robust Niña event:

Not sure about a strong La Niña, however, IMO, La Nada (i.e. the Euro prediction) is quickly becoming very unlikely

There’s no way for anyone to know exactly how far off it is, but its La Nada projection is starting to look very unlikely

Based on what is going on right now, I suspect the Euro is way too warm with its new ENSO plumes. The OHC is dropping quickly and this looks like it’s going to be quite the EWB and SOI spike. Also, as Chuck pointed out the other day we have -5C anomalies in the subsurface and strong convection in the Maritimes per VP. It appears we are going to see a healthy upwelling Kelvin wave

It sure was. We have been stuck with that forcing for years now and it looks to continue

And there is nothing to indicate that the record WPAC marine heatwave or the very strong, overwhelming MJO 4-6 forcing is going anywhere anytime soon

If you look at all of the good La Niña and cold-neutral/Nada winters (95-96, 10-11, 13-14, 17-18) the common theme with all of them is the east-based forcing with the Hadley cell shifted east like you’re showing. Not a coincidence and you can clearly see the reason for it

Wrong. 10-11 absolutely started out east-based and moved west in late January

Possibly, but the issue is, this is not being shown on any model as an east-based La Niña (i.e.: 95-96, 10-11, 17-18) those years were true east-based Niña events or started out as true east-based Niña events. 13-14 was cold-neutral/Nada, with a cold region 1+2, so “east-based cold Nada”, if you want to call it that? At no time were the models depicting this one an east-based event and they’re still not. Maybe @GaWx can chime in here?

Unfortunately I can’t find that article but I’ll look again a bit later, if I find it I’ll post it. The problem Bluewave is mentioning is in regard to where the very warm waters are and have been for years now in the WPAC. They are allowing the MJO 4-5-6 waves to really amplify in those phases over the super warm waters. The forcing is so strong and overwhelming there that even the very warm ENSO region 4 last winter made no difference, the waters west of there were even warmer. When you have SSTs that are anomalously that warm, it alters the global heat budget. The atmosphere is always going to put the strongest convection/forcing where the warmest waters are, it’s akin to a magnet for convection, which is why we have been stuck in MJO 4-6. It completely trumped the +ENSO signal last winter, as did the very strong -PDO in the North Pacific

I’m looking for the study right now, hopefully I can find it. It’s a few years old, but it found that there is no difference in the atmospheric response between cold-neutral/cold-La Nada and weak La Niña. Same story with warm-neutral and weak El Niño

Not sure we see an active STJ due to the PMM being strongly negative. -PMM corresponds to a weak STJ. The reason why the 95-96 Niña had the very atypical -ENSO strong STJ, besides the +PDO, was the fact that it also featured a +PMM

I believe that was 2006 too. I wasn’t a member yet but I do remember there being the massive New Foundland warm pool and the strong -PDO like Chuck said. There was quite a few winter forecasts that were for a very cold and snowy east coast winter (JB being one….surprise surprise) and they all busted horribly

Only a complete fool (or someone that follows Joe Bastardi) would be expecting a 95-96 or 10-11 redux since absolutely nothing even remotely supports that. Same story with 13-14, 14-15, 17-18….

The new run Bluewave posted is clearly showing a central-based, region 3.4 event. Further, the Euro has had a very strong warm bias in its ENSO forecasts for quite awhile now. @GaWx research showed this

Verbatim, the new run is also showing a central-based La Niña now and a continued blazing AMO

Classic La Niña longwave pattern and forcing. It looks like a decent upwelling Kelvin wave with the subsurface drop and I suspect with the EWB/enhanced trades the surface drops rather substantially by the end of this month and we see a large SOI spike

Look at the actual VP anomalies in the map @bluewave just posted, the forcing is in the exact same area it’s been in for years and if anything, it’s gotten even stronger over the last month. Classic La Niña VP/forcing. Nothing has changed. The MJO Wheeler plots are very noisy and very often inaccurate and do not represent what is actually going on with the forcing

Until we have a legit wholesale, major shift in the Pacific, I don’t see anything drastically changing, it’s been semipermanent, stagnant status quo for awhile now, regardless of the ENSO events, they have made no difference. The background state has not changed at all. We saw a very good illustration of that last winter. The background state has to change big time and until that happens, it’s just more of the same. Same story with the Atlantic (++AMO)