snowman19

Very impressive subsurface cold (approaching -6C) now in region 3.4. Courtesy of an upwelling Kelvin wave. Extremely likely some of this makes it to the surface with the enhanced easterly trades. Also, very pronounced tropical instability waves showing up on the new SST charts in the ENSO regions….an indication of rather healthy La Niña development

Absolutely no sign of this solar max cycle peaking yet. We are most likely several months away from the actual peak….solar activity/sunspots/flares/geomag are still increasing and extremely impressive. @GaWx Sunspots look to go over 200:

He stopped talking about it on X about a month ago because he knows he’s going to get ripped apart. He’s been hyping on the paid site to get subscription money from the weenies

No, JB has been incessantly hyping and wishcasting that the PDO is somehow magically going to turn raging positive. That’s why he’s using the asinine analog of 14-15

Anomalous high pressure over the North Pacific = continued record strong -PDO

The expected July strengthening period looks like a go: CPC:

I believe Chuck @Stormchaserchuck1 said the warm pool in that region is an even stronger signal for +NAO

WAR/SE ridge city

Holy hell at that New Foundland warm pool

Yes, from the little I do remember, they were tying recurving hurricanes and tropical storms into -NAO development during the winter. It was all NAO related discussion. Here’s my question…..does high ACE from low latitude East-West tracking tropical systems have the same effect as recurves that gain latitude poleward into the far North Atlantic? I would think that recurves do a way better job of transporting latent and sensible tropical heat energy and momentum into the tropopause of the North Atlantic and subsequently pumping ridges than do low latitude East-West tracking tropical systems @40/70 Benchmark @GaWx @raindancewx @bluewave Thoughts?

That’s what I meant to ask Ray before but it slipped my mind. I vaguely remember the correlation being high ACE with recurves releasing latent and sensible heat energy into the tropopause of the North Atlantic. Not sure if it applied to East-West tracking tropical systems too, I honestly didn’t read into the research I had seen on it years ago, but I do remember that recurves were mentioned

Just using 95-96 as an example, yes, it had the record high Atlantic ACE, but did that directly lead to the massive -NAO/-AO blocking that winter or was it the low solar/geo mag, -QBO, +PDO, weak east-based Niña that would have lead to it regardless, even if it wasn’t high ACE?

Pretty much agree. Pray that high ACE forecast works out, because if that’s a fail, I don’t know we avoid an all out disaster outside of interior northern New England

The CSU high ACE forecast is pretty much the only thing that looks good right now, unless there are very drastic changes in the next 4 months

It’s scary to think how warm the upcoming winter for the CONUS and even parts of Canada would be with a well poleward displaced jet (in combination with AGW) like the Euro is suggesting

If we assume it’s not deep enough with the RNA/-PNA again (possible given the strong -PDO), it doesn’t get much uglier than that…..flat Aleutian ridge, ++AO/++NAO, SE ridge/WAR on steroids

Verbatim, that’s a warmer version of the 88-89 La Niña disaster

Correct me if I’m wrong but I believe that the New Foundland warm pool is a very strong signal for +NAO

This month is becoming increasingly favorable for strengthening for several reasons as I outlined in my post this morning. We made this same mistake last year at this time with the El Niño, when people were saying it wasn’t strengthening and was likely to never get any stronger than moderate. The brand new NMME run is still showing a robust Niña event:

Not sure about a strong La Niña, however, IMO, La Nada (i.e. the Euro prediction) is quickly becoming very unlikely

There’s no way for anyone to know exactly how far off it is, but its La Nada projection is starting to look very unlikely

Based on what is going on right now, I suspect the Euro is way too warm with its new ENSO plumes. The OHC is dropping quickly and this looks like it’s going to be quite the EWB and SOI spike. Also, as Chuck pointed out the other day we have -5C anomalies in the subsurface and strong convection in the Maritimes per VP. It appears we are going to see a healthy upwelling Kelvin wave

It sure was. We have been stuck with that forcing for years now and it looks to continue

And there is nothing to indicate that the record WPAC marine heatwave or the very strong, overwhelming MJO 4-6 forcing is going anywhere anytime soon