snowman19

I know 83-84 was considered a volcanic winter because of El Cichon 1982, which was a tropical volcano that pumped sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere. If you have a true volcanic stratosphere, then yes, it should be considered IMO. I believe that El Cichon was a strong VEI 5 eruption that reached the stratosphere back then. This year is a question mark, we obviously don’t have a Pinatubo stratosphere, as that was utterly massive, but will the cumulative VEI 5 eruption we had do anything stratospherically? I don’t know El Cichon history: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Chichón

I saw in your post from yesterday, you had 1983 as an analog, which was volcanic. I guess you’re assuming a volcanic stratosphere (El Chichon, 1982)? Given the cumulative VEI 5 eruptions we had back in April? @brooklynwx99 Edit: 1983-84

@so_whats_happening Anything new on the MEI updating? Dying to see an update. My guess is that it’s a much different MEI landscape from last year, since everything is coupled much better atmospherically (PDO/PMM) with the developing Niña….

The relentless solar onslaught continues, we also have a strengthening geomag storm in progress:

The EURO has been on again, off again since 18z last night. The GFS on the other hand, wants nothing at all to do with it

Yea I mean that’s pretty much the only thing lol besides those differences, we can keep going…QBO, solar, the AMO wasn’t out of control positive, no New Foundland warm pool, a true tripole developed in the Atlantic

Good points. 1995-96 was the complete opposite of what we are seeing now…+PDO, +PMM and WPAC cold pool. Contrast that with the present…strong -PDO, -PMM, WPAC warm pool with MJO 4-6 dominating. Night and day. The current trend toward a -IOD with a La Niña is only going to further support Maritime Continent convection and MJO 4-6

13-14 was as classic a +TNH pattern as you will ever see. Since 15-16, we have seen -TNH patterns dominating

Besides the PDO difference, which was already pointed out, you didn’t have the massive WPAC warm pool altering the MJO forcing

The 14-15 PDO wasn’t just positive, it was severely positive and it directly lead to the insane -EPO/-WPO/+PNA blocking that winter. There was also an El Niño

Didn’t Raindance only predict a Aug-Oct -WPO or something like that? And as far as your musing that even if the ONI ends up being weak, that this Niña will behave atmospherically like a moderate or strong event this winter, I couldn’t agree more. That is one thing I’m very sure about

Now that the IOD is expected to turn negative, it lends even more support to Maritime Continent convection (MJO 4-6). -IOD/La Niña favors eastern IO and Maritime Continent forcing @40/70 Benchmark @bluewave

Follow up, which explains the very strong La Niña atmospheric response we are seeing, which @bluewave has been discussing. @40/70 Benchmark RONI:

I stand corrected, it was Nina/+QBO/low solar, so the 3rd most likely to produce a SSW and or blocking….Nino/-QBO/low solar being the most likely and Nina/+QBO/high solar being the least likely

You beat me to it lol yea, that winter had the weaker -PDO and low solar, it also did not have the inferno New Foundland warm pool to go along with the +AMO. I believe it may have been -QBO too?, don’t have the time to look it up right now though

Completely agree. In this current climate, weak La Niña no longer = cold and snowy. I have no doubt that even if the ONI stays weak, this La Niña is going to atmospherically behave MUCH stronger. I know Ray agrees too

Shades of last year….later peak. The longer it takes to “get going” the later the oceanic peak. As we’ve discussed many times and @bluewave has posted, the atmosphere is leading the ONI. We are and have been very strongly into La Niña mode

Yep and a very strong -PDO

Absolutely no signs whatsoever of the strong -PDO going anywhere despite what JB may be saying. Also no signs of this elusive east-based La Niña that apparently only exists on twitter since none of the models are showing one or ever did

Correct. Hybrid or whatever you want to call it. It’s just continuing the trend like all of the other models of NOT showing an east-based La Niña. In fact, at no point since the spring did any models show that. Which is why I’m mystified by the east-based Niña talk on Twitter. Maybe there’s some secret model that none of us know about showing an east-based La Niña? If there is, it must use the same algorithm as the Wxbell CFS that shows a +PDO….

Nice anti-log find. Talk about total polar opposites of this year. Besides PDO, ENSO, QBO, solar, AMO, those years (76-77, 86-87) were also +PMM. Literally every signal is opposite to this year

16-17 is good as far as the ENSO evolution and the +QBO, but like you said the PDO doesn’t match, neither does solar or AMO