snowman19

After the utter debacle last winter, I’ll never look at those again

This is looking to possibly be a “high end” VEI 5, cumulative, when all is said and done. Like you said, extremely impressive

Classic tropical volcanic eruptions that get into the stratosphere typically cause +AO (NAM)/+NAO the 1st winter after an eruption. Then -AO/-NAO is favored the 2nd winter after

I am referring to the potential volcanic effects yes. I don’t think AGW is going anywhere anytime soon, in fact, it may even get worse @donsutherland1 Thoughts?

Looking like we are going to have a potentially interesting setup taking shape…possible volcanic stratosphere?, -IOD by fall?, strong La Niña (orientation TBD - east based/basin wide/Modoki?), -PDO, high solar max/high geomag/high sunspots, +QBO, ++AMO….

This is a big deal. These are classic tropical volcanic eruptions back to back (cumulative VEI 5 possibly) injecting sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere. This definitely has implications for the winter….volcanic stratosphere @GaWx @donsutherland1

If we should go -IOD I think this Niña really takes off, i.e. 73-74, 88-89. I wish him a lot of luck with those +PDO wishcasts, I think he’s going to need it

He will still be predicting cold and snow on Memorial Day weekend. He’s living in an alternative universe all to his own

It feels like a June morning right now

We are primed for a very strong La Niña event. If the IOD goes negative like the CFS monthly is suggesting, it’s really off to the races, i.e. 73-74, 88-89.

Way, way too early to think about winter, but just based on the current solar cycle, I would hedge very strongly against a -NAO winter right now. In the last 45 years (since 79-80), we have had 6 -NAO winters. All of them, without exception, occurred during a solar minimum, with a very low number of sunspots and low geomag activity. Definitely not a coincidence and HM wrote up a detailed explanation of why that is years ago. Wish I still had the link to it. But we have the exact 180 degree opposite of that solar setup this year

Ok JB lol

He isn’t just going for a cold and snowy east coast winter this year, he’s going epic (95-96, 10-11). I can see it coming already. That’s why he’s wishcasting a huge Atlantic hurricane season with recurves and super high ACE, 95-96 (-NAO) and a +PDO. He knows that even if the +PDO doesn’t work out, he can just fall back on 10-11 being -PDO/+QBO, and still use 95-96 if his tropical Atlantic wishcast works out

Record cold and snow was coming for 6 months in a row according to him. His 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 77-78, 02-03 and 09-10 “analogs” and “migrating Modoki” worked out superbly lol First it was Thanksgiving week/late November, then Christmas week, then late December/New Year’s, then late January and early February, then mid-late February “Sixteen Chapel” cold and snow pattern, then early March, then March 10th-April 10th, then late March/early April, “coldest and snowiest start to spring in history”. Anyone who actually takes him seriously anymore needs a psychiatric evaluation

Haven’t seen a drop here…

It’s a miracle! Please, let’s go into a long-term drought!

Let me guess…you were disappointed that you couldn’t be in a winter parka, long john’s, a scarf, a wool hat, mittens and galoshes?

I doubt it too but stranger things have happened. I’m actually rooting for it. A major drought would not bother me in the least right now

I hope we go into a legit drought from here on out to be honest. Would be the 1st one in the region since 2002, we’re due anyway

As @GaWx pointed out, we have only had 6 -NAO winters since 1979-1980. Literally ALL of those 6 occurred during solar minimums with a very low number of sunspots and low geomag activity. We have the complete 180 degree opposite of that right now with the solar max/high solar flux/high geomag cycle. Given this fact, predict a -NAO winter at your own risk

No doubt in my mind that he’s going for a huge cold and snowy east coast winter this year. That’s the reason why he’s hyping a La Niña with a hyper active recurving Atlantic hurricane season and a +PDO. He’s looking for any excuse to say 1995-1996 and 2010-2011 are analogs (if the PDO doesn’t work out, he will say the +QBO matches 2010). His entire existence depends on the east coast weenies forking him over subscription money and giving him likes, follows and retweets on X

The CFS is predicting the first ever “super” La Niña lol

Not only solar minimum but also low geomag. HM did a write up years ago on why solar minimum/low geomag strongly supports -NAO winters

IMO the very high solar flux is going to be the elephant in the room this upcoming winter. It is going to be a big player just like the 2001 solar flux was