snowman19

Besides the cold-neutral state, if I’m not mistaken the IOD was positive, which may have helped alter the MJO forcing in 13-14 too, in addition to the very different PDO configuration. That winter was not only predominant -WPO/-EPO, the PNA also went through the roof positive at times, I believe there were +3 +PNA spikes that winter if I remember correctly. The PAC side saved that winter, the NAO/AO were severely positive all winter. I very, very seriously doubt we see a Pacific pattern anywhere close to that one this winter

Even though 13-14 (cold-neutral) was “technically” a -PDO it sure did not behave like one on the PAC side, in fact, it exactly mimicked a +PDO and a real strong one at that. The PAC SST configuration was completely different than what we are seeing now, which caused that very strong +PDO/+TNH response. Classic +TNH in fact. @bluewave made a post a little over a month ago explaining the reasons for it. The Atlantic side is definitely similar and it ended up being ++NAO/++AO that winter. It was all Pacific driven

The thing I remember most about 07-08 besides it barely snowing that winter, was the massive Thanksgiving Day torch. It was like 70 degrees and my cousins and I were outside in shorts and short sleeves playing football that afternoon

07-08 was an unmitigated, epic disaster south of New England. For NYC: November: no snow that month, 2nd warmest Thanksgiving Day on record. December: 12/2 - 1.4 inches of snow, washed away by rain. 12/16 - sleet and rain, 1 inch of frozen (sleet). January: 1/31 - Trace of snow, which was the total for the month. February: 2/12 - 2.8 inches of snow followed by sleet/freezing rain, then a huge torch and very heavy rain into 2/13. 2/22 - 6 inches of wet, slushy snow, biggest storm of the entire winter. 2/29 - 0.2 of snow and the last time it snowed that winter. March: nothing. April: nothing. Sources: https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2012/02/new-york-weather-highlights-2007.html%20 https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2012/02/new-york-weather-highlights-2008-.html%20

The new NMME is out FWIW:

This solar max is now on par with the solar cycle 23 max (01-02), in terms of sunspots, radio flux (a whopping 246 radio flux) and geomag activity At this point, it doesn’t appear that any of the main variables (central based -ENSO, strong -PDO, weak -IOD, -PMM, +QBO, high solar flux/sunspots, high geomag, low arctic sea ice, +AMO/New Foundland warm pool, record warm SSTs in MJO phases 4-6) are going to change as we go into met winter. The only unknown is if the cumulative VEI 5 Ruang volcanic eruptions end up having any stratospheric effects, though likely to be minimal

The -PDO is strengthening and a healthy -PMM is also starting to emerge with the cooling off Baja. And it looks like a GOA cold pool is poised to develop as the strong cooling in the Bering Sea results in downstream cooling of the GOA:

Not hanging my hat on just that but it’s a very good bet that the atmosphere is going to put the strongest convection over the warmest SSTs, just looking at the laws of physics/thermodynamics. Very likely the MJO favors those phase regions. When you have SSTs that anomalously warm, it alters the global heat budget and subsequently the main forcing

IMO that changes this year @bluewave The warmest SSTs on the planet are right in the MJO phase 4-6 regions. Gee, I wonder where the main tropical convective forcing is going to set up shop?

IMO the dry pattern we entered at the tail end of August is going to have staying power this fall. I’m expecting the next 3 months (SON) to be drier than normal as well as warmer than normal

Webb completely blew last winter and the winter before. And he was arrogant, nasty and condescending as hell about it. All of the research papers he posted last winter didn’t help his monumental bust on February and March. He was so sure of it too. Absolutely confident in a huge Feb and Mar and was mocking everyone who doubted him like they were stupid. Back in 2022, he completely blew December. Guaranteed a historic I-95 KU, quoted study after study proving how right he was going to be. Then he went on to blow January when he was sure a +TNH pattern was going to set up. He never humbles

One thing is for sure, the Atlantic is currently dead. If you look back on history, the years that were this quiet in this time frame since August never came back. Would not be the least bit surprised to see a final ACE below 100

@Stormchaserchuck1 Looks like your idea that we go into a warmer than normal pattern in earnest again starting in September appears to be spot on. I think this fall (SON) ends up solidly warmer to much warmer than normal and also drier than normal

Here comes the next surge in sunspots….

I agree. The -PDO/-AMO patterns of the past are just that, the past. I remember seeing a Joe Bastardi CNN interview clip that someone shared a few years ago from 2003 I think it was? Anyway, he said we were going back into the exact weather pattern of the 1940’s-1970’s. Replica. Was absolutely sure about it, convinced. Good lord was that an epic fail

If it’s correct then it’s a flat Aleutian ridge as opposed to a poleward one, which would support more of the status quo we’ve been seeing since 15-16. And @40/70 Benchmark my question is if the AMO is ABOUT to flip, can we use -AMO analogs for this winter? Or would the flip have to be complete (probably not till next summer, assuming that’s what indeed is happening) to see the long wave effects from it? I’m just reluctant to say it’s definitely flipping because of the 13-14 -AMO false alarm

I would think that transient spikes during a minimum period would have less important effects than a big spike during an overall solar max period over many months. Adding a cumulative effect that potentiates everything

30 days? I wouldn’t take the CFS seriously for November until Halloween

Joe D used it to explain what happened with the 01-02 winter. He attributed the increased UV from the high solar flux/max heating the upper troposphere in the low and mid latitudes leading to the SPV shrinking and moving directly over the North Pole and causing the raging zonal PAC jet and very strong westerly flow that winter Link: https://www.weatherbell.com/newsletter-10-11-2011-f

They had to be talking about the anomalies, which you and I already suspected. And I agree, we are nowhere near the peak of this +QBO since it just turned positive in June. The peak very likely doesn’t happen until sometime this winter

While AGW might definitely be playing a role, if you look back on the 01-02 high solar flux of cycle 23, we saw the same spike in upper tropospheric temps/warming over the low and mid latitudes from the increased UV

For sure and it’s showing no sign of letting up. I would not be surprised to see this season finish with an ACE of 110-140

If you look at when the upper tropospheric temps really started to rise, it was right when the solar flux/geomag and UV started spiking, not a coincidence

Too far out to think about but maybe? Especially if there’s a PDO flip next summer. As far as peer reviewed studies on Joe D’Aleo’s theory, I haven’t seen any personally, however given the very warm upper troposphere temps in the low and mid latitudes right now, the fact that we saw the exact same thing back in 01-02 with the last big solar max, I have to believe that there is truth to it. Joe is not one to be that confident in something without having good evidence to back up his claims

East-based is not happening. That ship has sailed. No models ever showed an east-based event and none do now. In fact, the new CANSIPS has region 1+2 with warm anomalies this winter. From Raindance: