snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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The new EURO is showers, 0.2 - 0.3 total QPF for the next 10 days from the Mid-Atlantic through the Northeast
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That big GOA cold pool too
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One thing is for sure, with the -PMM (cold water off Baja), it supports a very muted STJ this winter and a very reduced chance of KU’s marching up the coast
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2020 is not an analog IMO due to the solar minimum which in very large part helped drive the high latitude blocking
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If the end of November pattern on the long range ensembles is correct, that’s a Bering Sea vortex, total lights out ++EPO pattern. That’s exactly what happened back in late November, 2011. It’s even worse than an Alaskan vortex
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As strong a signal as you will ever see (rest of this month)
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As strong a signal as you will ever see for the rest of this month @Bluewave
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The ensembles (GEFS GEPS EPS) are a general 0.2 - 0.4 total QPF Sun/Mon which will seem like a deluge
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I’m confident in either a central-based cold-neutral (ONI) or very weak La Niña
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@40/70 Benchmark This is going to become even more of a classic central-based Niña
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Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
snowman19 replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
EPS is not enthused at all, with a general 0.2-0.4 total QPF from the Mid-Atlantic through the northeast by Wednesday, which makes me view the GFS with extreme skepticism https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=epsens&p=qpf_acc-mean-imp&rh=2024110500&fh=204&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 -
Hard sell on the SPV weakening. The Euro was awful with doing this last year early on in November/December. And there’s a massive trough in Eurasia exactly where you would want a ridge, which is going to allow the SPV to strengthen as much as it wants
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@Gawx Even more confidence in my guess of a hostile NAO this winter. And any word on the October QBO number? Edit: @GaWx Assuming a Dec/Jan peak, I wonder if we meet or eclipse the WQBO record (at 30mb) of +15??
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That’s a real good question. It’s clear that by mid-month the SE ridge/WAR is going to pop, then it becomes a question of how strong, which is going to depend on the trough in the west. The +AMO and New Foundland warm pool by itself is supportive of SE ridge/WAR. If the -PNA really dumps into the west then it’s probably more of the same on the east coast (dry) with a stronger downstream ridge @SnoSki14 @Allsnow And the GFS has begun a full scale cave to the drier Euro suite for Sun/Mon. Watch it turn into nothing more than a few passing showers. “When in drought, forecast drought”
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Not sure about THE warmest November, but I can absolutely see this being in the top 5 based on what the ensembles are showing right through Thanksgiving
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Agree. Showers on Sunday/Monday are not going to undo the damage that has been done since August 20th
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Warm Niña falls doesn’t have as strong of a signal as precip. The correlation to winter is stronger with dryness/wetness. Dry falls, in particular very dry falls have a correlation to below normal snowfall
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If the ensembles are correct this pattern lasts right through Thanksgiving. This is a very stable, feedback pattern we are in and have been in
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Fall dryness/wetness has a much better correlation to the winter pattern than does temperatures @donsutherland1
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I think more than the warmth (which has been going on for years now), the big story since August is the record dry pattern. We have clearly gone into a dry feedback loop and once they are in place, they are VERY hard to break
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I think this ends up another record dry month and the drought continues unabated
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I mentioned it before, but I think the risk is that my forecast of +2 - +4 this winter busts too low given the very rapid acceleration of AGW over the last 10 years
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If anything, I think the risk is that my forecast of +2 - + 4 this winter busts too cold given the rapid acceleration of AGW over the last 10 years
