snowman19

There actually is a strong solar connection to the NAO, @Gawx has shown this several times. HM and Isotherm also used to speak of it in detail. Sunspots and radio flux aside, there is and has been a constant geomag onslaught going on. High geomag alone very strongly favors +NAO

The WPO may prove to be variable I agree. As far as -EPO blocking, not so much. That would be a very hard sell for me IMO. Not with a GOA and PDO that look like that

If there is pronounced poleward Aleutian ridging/-WPO, then that would obviously change the game. If it does happen, I would think it would be early on (December). Want to see what happens over the next 3 weeks (brings us to early November), but I think we face a hostile to very hostile NAO and AO, getting pretty confident in that. I don’t see the PNA playing ball either, obviously not to the extent of 22-23 but hostile none the less. I doubt much cooperation from the EPO either; why? GOA cold pool, very strong -PDO, Maritime Continent 4-6 forcing very likely favored and SST cooling starting to extend west from there (GOA) to the eastern part of Aleutian chain

A bunch of the preliminary outlooks I’ve seen on X have above to well above normal precip from the mid-Atlantic through New England. I guess stranger things have happened given AGW, but this time around, I doubt it

Good luck and I agree that this winter will end up drier on the east coast than some think. I know some people are expecting well above normal precip but I’m not of that opinion right now

Good point. Maybe there is a lag? If there is a total shutdown again after Milton, your lag theory may be right

@Gawx

Classic CP Niña development; impressive, sustained EWBs concentrated right in region 3.4, substantial cooling on the way

@so_whats_happening Any MEI update? I would think that it went up more from last month given the OLR, -PMM, -PDO, +SOI, 3.4 SST states?

Really a shame. Over the last several years we have lost some great people here….HM, Isotherm, Raindance…..

GEFS, EPS, GEPS still showing the MJO 4-6 pass. Given that, coupled with the increasing -IOD, this should result in a rather healthy EWB/enhanced trades and continued cooling in region 3.4 coming up. SOI up to +15

Obviously subject to change, but looking at the extended, long range on the ensembles, it does appear that we may be headed for a warmer to much warmer than normal pattern as we go into the end of this month, gives support to Roundy’s idea of a warm end to the month going into November….

I know you’re not expecting that. I wanted to look into the antecedent conditions data for the ones that did for when I do my winter write up next month

Possible November warmth aside, I’m just curious as to which and how many La Niña’s had a warmer than normal December then went on to have a cold/snowy January-March or February-March. I never actually never looked into that, if you know? If not, maybe @bluewave or @donsutherland1 would?

Assuming you are correct and December is warmer than normal, and yes the models do show that, how many and which La Niña winters had a warmer than normal December then went on to have a cold and snowy January-March? Or at least a cold and snowy February-March? It’s also looking like November may be warmer than normal too based on the progression of the tropical forcing per Paul Roundy:

Yes. The models are still showing persistent enhanced trade winds/EWBs in ENSO 3.4. If they are correct and it looks like they are based on the totality of the other synoptic features, then there will be cooling in that region and the SSTAs will drop to La Niña territory this month and into next month…..

Not vitriol at all and I’m not totally dismissing it. The seasonal guidance last winter was beyond awful and I bought into it. The only one who didn’t (Bluewave) ended up being right. I view it with extreme skepticism until proven otherwise now. Remember when the EURO weeklies and monthlies kept showing massive blocking for February and March? It sure fooled me with the Nino in place. They kept insisting on MJO 8-1-2, -NAO/-AO/+PNA/-EPO/-WPO, off to the races, severe cold and KU’s barreling up the coast, run after run after run. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me Edit: @40/70 Benchmark My post was about last year, not 21-22 or 22-23

After the utter dumpster fire debacle with the long range models last winter, I’m going to watch the real time observations and patterns and make my forecast next month based on those, not what some long range model says is going to happen. The people who blindly followed the models last winter got burned and failed horribly. It was a disaster

I don’t believe for one second that there is no La Niña this winter like the EURO is showing. Hard sell on that one. Every run flip flops on ENSO like a fish out of water

How many times is the EURO going to show a La Niña then go to cold-neutral/La Nada then back again before this winter starts? Back and forth, back and forth like a schizophrenic. How can you trust it?

FWIW the new Meteo-France showing a canonical CP Niña this winter:

It’s warm below region 1+2 because this is a CP Niña event. Barring something really weird happening in the next 3 weeks before November arrives, I think the main drivers for this winter are probably already set…..CP La Niña (weak), very strong -PDO, -PMM, -IOD (weak), +AMO/New Foundland warm pool, +QBO, solar max/high geomag, low arctic sea ice, MJO very likely favoring phases 4-6, AGW, near average Atlantic ACE?. The only question I have at this point is what effects if any and likely minor (does it potentiate the Niña/+QBO/high solar effect on the AO?), will the cumulative VEI 5 Ruang volcanic eruptions back in April have on the stratosphere. We won’t know the answer to that question until after winter is over

As far as a typical Niña/-PDO/+QBO/solar max response, yes I agree

Subsurface cold continuing to build, models are getting stronger with the EWB in region 3.4. Fits with the MJO propagating to the Maritime Continent TIWs showing up in 3.4

EPS is developing a massive GOA vortex around mid-month. Fits MJO 4-5, October, -ENSO composites