snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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The ensembles have definitely cut back QPF area wide since yesterday morning but are still more than we have seen in months. The GEFS is less than an inch, GEPS is around an inch, EPS is just over an inch and the NWS blend of models is around an inch
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If I’m wrong I’m wrong and I’ve been wrong many times before and if you’re wrong I would never insult you, troll you or make fun of you. I don’t play that game
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Dancing naked holding hands? Really disgusting and uncalled for. Classy.
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Those snow maps are completely bogus. Junk. Sell them like they are on fire. The soundings and that midlevel setup aren’t snow anywhere in this area but maybe the mountains of northern New England. Just be grateful it’s actually going to rain
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If that’s where the MJO forcing/wave is indeed going to be and going to be that strong, then expect the long range models for early December to change in the next several days. And either Joe Bastardi’s new favorite model (the CFS) is going to score a big coup with the projected huge EWB and rapid Nina strengthening it has for December or it’s totally out to lunch
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There is a town north of me in Orange County called Greenwood Lake. They have an out of control wild fire that looks like something from out west. It’s insane up there
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IF (and it’s a big if) the models can keep this new idea of the closed cutoff upper low and secondary surface development then this week would be the best chance at over .50 of rain we’ve had since mid-August. With the way things have gone since then, I would view these new solutions with caution This is the NWS blend of models: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nbm&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2024111706&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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The record drought and warmth since August aside for a minute. Here is another warning sign for winter:
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This still looks like nothing more than FROPA with GOM influx completely cut off. I expect the drying trend to continue. Take the under on this one
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The record drought and warmth since late August being 2 big warning signs….This right here is a BIG red flag. Warning bells going off, but it will be ignored by some
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The tropical forcing progression in December is going to be completely unsupportive of an east coast trough. Does it change in January? Going to have to wait and see
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Yes I agree. December is starting to look like a very warm month. MJO forcing in warm phases (-IOD, -PDO, -ENSO = +EPO/-PNA, neutral WPO) and the SPV is about to go on steroids (+NAO/+AO). The entire subseasonal picture looks warm to very warm, PAC side, Atlantic side, arctic side. Question becomes does it change come January?
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The CPC has just spoken:
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My thoughts exactly with the GOM influx cut off. Would not be surprised if we end up with even less than what the Euro is showing right now. I know that’s not what people want to hear but I guess any little bit of rain from a FROPA would be a change at this point given where we have been since August
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The Euro is very likely the closest to reality for next week. I don’t see it being much than a run of the mill FROPA. The Canadian is totally off its rocker as usual and the GFS has a wildly different solution on every run
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What is EPS showing?
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It was really terrible with that last winter. And in December with a negative ENSO, MJO phases 3 through 7 are all warm in the east
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If you have time, look up the 5 driest falls on record, since this fall is at #2 of all time, and see how those winters turned out. Snowfall and temps
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The MJO is forecast to emerge in warm phases by early December. We’ll see
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God speed and good luck with your forecast!! I hope it works out for you
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Sustained EWBs confined in region 3.4! Yep, this is definitely a textbook east-based event!!
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Who gives a shit what Eric Webb says?
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Look at where all the arctic air is, locked on the complete opposite side of the pole again, in Eurasia. And we are going into mid-November. Just like last year
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FWIW:
