snowman19

I’m not a fan of 20-21 at all. That was a solar minimum

Eric has done horribly the last 3 winters in a row. He also says he doubts it happens given the extratropical (very strong -PDO) synoptic picture: -ENSO/-IOD very strongly favors Maritime Continent and eastern IO forcing. How many times are we going to forecast MJO 8, 1, 2 forcing only to have it fail? We tried this exact same thing last year and all we saw was MJO 4-6 all winter and that was during an El Niño no less

The east-based Niña fantasies on twitter are going to go down in flames

Winter forecasts have been in constant fail mode since the 15-16 winter because of the MJO/West PAC marine heatwave and the strong -PDO. ‘ Real curious to see what the MEI does this month….with the 30 day SOI near +5, the increasingly negative PDO, developing -PMM, cooling/increased trades in region 3.4, falling IOD (at -0.07), Niña forcing reflected in the global OLR…a very well coupled system is in place. Let’s see if the new MEI reflects this…. ‘

Besides the PDO, solar/geomag and ACE not matching, 2017 was also -QBO, it was a very east-based La Niña and there was no New Foundland warm pool, the +AMO configuration was completely different. The MJO behavior back then also doesn’t match this year. Why BAMWX is saying it’s a good analog is totally beyond me

Real curious to see what the MEI does this month….with the 30 day SOI near +5, the increasingly negative PDO, developing -PMM, cooling/increased trades in region 3.4, falling IOD (at -0.07), Niña forcing reflected in the global OLR…a very well coupled system is in place. Let’s see if the new MEI reflects this….

Part of it could be MJO propagation related too. Going to have to see what this newly emerged sunspot group does to the total number as well

Solar doesn’t match 2020 at all

I’m not thinking a 2022 level RNA, but I do think we average a solidly negative PNA DJFM

With the inferno SSTs from the western Aleutians over to Japan that’s no surprise

Yea, this is going to be a central based/CP Niña and we have clearly turned the corner with this event just in the last couple of days with a decided push starting. The chances for an official Niña as opposed to cold-neutral look way better now. The PMM turning negative with the rapid cooling off Baja, the very strongly negative PDO and the IOD turning negative only support this becoming a Niña further. I suspect there’s a drop in the MEI this month, unlike last winter where the PDO and PMM didn’t play ball and the MEI didn’t couple well, this one will have no problem

Yes he does. He goes very cold and snowy and says it’s extremely favorable for -NAO/-AO, a weak SPV and SSWEs every year. Even said that back in 2015 with a raging super El Niño in place. He has zero credibility IMO

With this look, my guess is that this month averages close a -3 PDO

Another possible correlation between high geomag and the Atlantic hurricane season:

Figured you’d accuse me of that, paranoia will destroy ya. No. 10-11 was -PMM. -PMM is most common during -ENSO. And it also correlates to a weak STJ https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Meridional_Mode

-PMM taking shape…..rapid cooling off Baja since the tail end of August

We may be at the peak but it’s going to be a few months before we can know that for sure. We may see another spike or we may not. There are other sunspot groups coming up that can cause another spike or they may not. It’s wait and see. It’s impossible for anyone to know for sure right now. The total sunspot numbers for this month are still very high

The 01-02 solar max….final seasonal ACE: 110. And that was before AGW really took off like a rocket. Not a coincidence @Gawx

Pretty clear relationship between high solar/sunspots/geomag/radio flux and the Atlantic hurricane season:

Why not? What’s wrong with keeping on eye on the strength of the PAC jet in the months ahead since it has consistently been a huge issue for the past 9 winters

The never ending saga…

Going to have to wait awhile to actually confirm that but maybe…01-02 also peaked in August/September then slowly dropped through the end of March. That said, radio flux is still very high

Nice conspiracy theory Mark Margavage lol. It doesn’t frigging matter if it’s cold-neutral, the atmosphere is and has been in a strong Niña state. MAKES NO DIFFERENCE if the SSTs are cold-neutral. So no matter what the ENSO SSTs say it’s still going to behave like a La Niña with a strong -PDO. I can conclude that the SSTs are going to say that monkeys fly out of your butt and it’s still going to behave like a negative PDO Niña this winter. The twitter crowd can predict this being “east-based” all they want. Good luck to them with region 1+2 SSTs approaching an El Niño and region 3 warming up rapidly. Now, it looks like it’s going to be a CP/Central Pacific event. And good luck with the high Atlantic ACE fantasies, we’re now below normal. You’re going to be lucky to see the final ACE number for this season crack the low 100’s