snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Looks like another Atlantic TC shutdown is coming. I also think the huge solar spike we are seeing right now is contributing to this as well. IMO, 100-110 ACE is where we finish this tropical season Hopefully we see OISST update again soon. Been happy to at least see the TAO, CRW and the QBO data still coming in
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Beat me to it, just saw the updated number (+10.36). Since it just went positive in June, my guess is a peak around January or thereabouts
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The subsurface under region 3.4 is cooling down quickly again. Now it really looks like a CP event
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Other than some residual warmth it shows in the GOA, it still has the colder anomalies developing there. Other than that, I don’t see a huge difference
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My guess is that the Atlantic is about to go quiet come mid-month. Huge shear profile starting to show up and the MJO is going to propogate 4-6 (Maritime Continent) with a subsidence response over the Atlantic basin. When you combine that with the big solar spike (upper atmosphere warming/stability) we are seeing, it screams a big drop in TC’s Also, here comes the suspected GOA cold pool, as a normal progression downstream from the big Bering Sea cooling we saw last month:
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I remember people on twitter posting the weeklies just before the season started, showing a big season coming up Edit: And if it was another model then I apologize but I do believe it was the weeklies just before the season began that was getting hyped
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Color me very skeptical of that EURO forecast. It has been busting badly on ACE this summer as it is
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Big jump, back to well over 200. When you combine this with the MJO propagation to the Maritime Continent later this month, my guess is another shutdown of Atlantic TC’s
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@Stormchaserchuck1 @GaWx Any update on September’s QBO number yet?
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@Gawx Here comes another solar spike. Very large sunspot group showing up with major flares. Radio flux and geomag also going up Also, the IOD got more negative (-0.39), all models now showing it on the negative side of neutral going into November, increasing confidence in a weak CP event going into winter: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean
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EWB right smack dab in the middle of 3.4. More support for a central-based/CP event growing: Eastern Region 3:
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In the last 30 years, nothing can compare to those 6 winters (95-96, 02-03, 09-10, 10-11, 13-14, 14-15). For the most part, they all tipped their hand by the end of November then it was “bombs away” for months, in most cases right through the beginning of April. The exception being 10-11 which shut off and ended in February. Had it kept going, I have no doubt we would have beaten 95-96
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Agree. I would also add 02-03 to that list
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Big Aleutian ridge/high signal
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The problem I see with 13-14 and I know you have discussed it several times is the PDO configuration (basically +PDO). IMO, the North PAC SSTs have to change big time and very quickly for that to become a viable analog. That PDO configuration lead to the -EPO/-WPO and at times very strongly +PNA. The AO/NAO was wall to wall strongly positive; all PAC/+TNH driven. The MJO forcing was also very different, it was also a cold-neutral/La Nada
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Correct. Weak Niña aside, @bluewave found a pretty strong correlation to weak MJO forcing in phases 4-6 in October. As of now, that is what the models are showing happening. Of course, that can change though
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If @bluewave indicators hold, it definitely doesn’t look promising. Weak CP La Niña and the progged weak MJO 4-6 forcing starting around mid-October…..
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2007 is way better than some of the other ones floating around social media (83-84, 95-96, 10-11, 13-14, 17-18, 20-21)
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Oh jeez you’re right. Must be a glitch this morning, the bottom one is up to date. Still a very CP signature
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Amazing how fast the subsurface warmed and went to a purely CP signature. There’s actually +5 anomalies just below the eastern ENSO regions now….
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Agree. Once the MJO pushes into the Maritime Continent again (albeit weakly into phases 4-6), we very likely see another lull in the Atlantic with compensatory sinking air over the basin. By then we will be into mid-late October, so starting to get very late for any hyperactivity at that point in time as we get closer to November
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Sorry, I work double shifts to pay off all the loans I took out for that wedding
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One thing is for sure, this La Niña definitely looks like a central-based/CP event now. The only cold subsurface water left is in region 3.4 @40/70 Benchmark
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I’m starting to get a good idea of where we are headed for winter. Going to wait until the beginning of November to make a final guess and write something up here, but safe to say my analogs are not going to be 83-84, 95-96, 10-11, 13-14, 17-18 or 20-21……
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Would not surprise me at all to see a final Atlantic ACE of 90-110 come 11/30
