snowman19

Strong -PMM developing and quickly….

I was kind of doubting an official Niña for awhile but the recent cooling and projected cooling/EWBs in region 3.4 coming up, along with the rapidly developing -PMM, -IOD, severely -PDO, the SOI finally going positive (albeit weakly), the MEI coupling and the continued Niña background forcing state (OLR), gives me confidence that we do see an official weak La Niña (ONI)

The ensembles are showing a huge ridge developing from just east of Japan to the western Aleutians and a big vortex in the GOA at the beginning of October. If correct, we are going to see strong upwelling and cooling of the SSTs in the GOA

Here comes the next round of SST warming from east of Japan to the western Aleutians. Positive feedback cycle

Looks very likely now that we see a weak, central-based La Niña (ONI). The RONI is a different story. The MJO is going to traverse back to the Maritime Continent (phases 4-6) next month and we are going to start seeing the enhanced trades/EWBs again and the SOI should rise. The PMM and IOD going negative only lends more support to Niña development…the -PDO goes without saying

The February, 2008 storm wasn’t even that “big”, just over 6 inches for NYC, biggest storm of that winter at least

If it wasn’t for that February snowstorm, 07-08 would have easily been 97-98, 01-02, 11-12, 19-20 level bad for the NYC metro area

I don’t like 2020 because of the solar minimum

Until there is a full scale AMO change, it’s probably not going to stop happening

Marine heatwaves, low arctic sea ice, etc. AGW at work….

That’s where the “match” ends. It’s a horrible match/analog IMO both PAC and Atlantic, we disagree then

Sometimes twitter is good for laughs. Just saw the 83-84 “analog” dropped again. I mean I get the desire to predict December of ‘83 and all but lol Makes me wonder where some of these guys get this stuff. Besides -ENSO/+QBO, terrible. Solar? No match. AMO? No match. The funniest part is, this person said the PAC matches. A +PDO matches this year? Lol That year was also volcanic (El Chichon). I guess you can argue that we had the Ruang eruptions that reached the cumulative VEI 5 back in April but it definitely was not on the volcanic stratosphere level of El Cichon

In agreement on everything, although I think we see some deeply negative PNA at times. Also agree that we do see at least a weak Niña now with the IOD going negative and interfering with development in the next few months

Correct. If you compare September and the projected early October pattern, it looks nothing like 2013. It’s not even close

The -PDO is only going to get stronger. The models are consistently developing an AK/GOA vortex. That is only going to upwell and cool the SSTs there. It’s a typical downstream progression from the big Bering Sea cooling we have been seeing *To your other point about the subsurface waning, one thing is for certain, this right here in no way, shape or form resembles past east-based events

@40/70 Benchmark People can kiss the east-based dreams goodbye….

There has been musings that the Arctic sea ice state is also tied into the AMO

I worded it wrong. Yes, you’re right

This new study found a connection between low arctic sea ice and the propensity for La Niña events. Could be one of the reasons why we have seen so many Niña events since the tail end of the 1990’s…. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/382327442_Wintertime_Arctic_Sea-Ice_Decline_Related_to_Multi-Year_La_Nina_Events There have also been studies that found a possible link between low arctic sea ice potentiating both the Niña/-QBO/-AO/SSWEs tendency and the Niña/+QBO/+AO/lack of SSWEs response

I played football and baseball throughout middle school and all 4 years of high school and I can tell you first hand, playing baseball in the cold is awful, torture. You can easily warm yourself up playing football no matter how cold it may be. Can’t say the same for baseball. It even hurts to grip the seams on the ball when it’s really cold

The World Series extending into November is a joke

In case anyone is following, we bottomed out on 9/11 and it has begun to rebuild. We finished at the 7th lowest arctic sea ice extent since 1979

This is the reason why it takes months to determine an actual peak in a solar max. Here comes a brand new large sunspot group/groups with flaring, high geomag activity and high radio flux:

Thanks for the advice. And “s*** on them”? Surely you can express your point without being vulgar and obscene. As for Eric Webb he is an extremely nasty, condescending, arrogant person who mocks and demeans other people and their opinions, so no, I don’t have any respect for him. Thanks again for the pointers