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snowman19

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  1. snowman19
    My point is that no one will give a s*** if all this pattern does is get it cold. Like Tomer Burg showed, this pattern carries a high risk of suppression. If this does turn out to be a suppressed pattern, you and everyone else will call it a HUGE fail
  2. snowman19
    Yes he does. More bombastic hype. If mid-late February fails, a lot of people have set themselves up to look really stupid and loose a whole lot of credibility
  3. snowman19
    Big Nino warming/strenthening continues. Region 3.4 back up over +1.9C again. Looks like it may hit +2.0C in the next few days….
  4. snowman19
    Thoughts on this?
  5. snowman19
    Here’s Jim Cantore’s take on mid-late February. Can’t accuse him of being warm biased. He’s one of the biggest cold and snow weenie mets there is:
  6. snowman19
    Just looking at the end of the ensembles Ray….IMO the post 2/15 pattern change is not going to have much staying power. Gotta agree with you, I think this one is over and out come the beginning of March. The PAC looks poised to crash into that western ridge, I don’t see this lasting much more than 2 weeks but I could be wrong, been wrong before lol
  7. snowman19
    Interesting, since November we have yet to see any pattern lock in but this is going to be the one that locks in for a solid 28+ days
  8. snowman19
    T minus 13 days and we’ll know if all the bombastic hype about mid-late February is real. 2/15 is the start of put up or shut up time, do or die….
  9. snowman19
    It’s just wait and see what happens after 2/15 at this point. The ensembles and weeklies are either going to verify or they’re not…..
  10. snowman19
    Just for “contest” purposes, a rounded super El Niño (trimonthly ONI) is a given at this point. I’m interested to see if we actually get it unrounded too. As far as the effects on the longwave pattern whether it’s +1.9C or +2.0C/+2.1C unrounded, makes no difference at all. The atmosphere is going to behave the same way, semantics in that sense
  11. snowman19
    With the way mid-late February is getting hyped right now, if it doesn’t produce here like mid-late January didn’t, it will be one of the biggest busts of all time
  12. snowman19
    For who? New Foundland? Nova Scotia?
  13. snowman19
    @so_whats_happening @GaWx The massive WWB is having a very rapid effect…Nino 3.4 is back over +1.8C and region 3 is almost +2.0C again
  14. snowman19
    Do you think it takes a bit to get the cold in again once the pattern flips around 2/15? 2/1-2/15 look awfully warm with PAC air across Canada and the CONUS, I would think that takes a few days (at least) to chill back down?
  15. snowman19
    My guess would be if it the pattern does actually flip around President’s Day weekend, as is modeled, it lasts until the beginning of March. Do I think (hypothetically), if the can gets kicked down the road again and the post 2/15 pattern doesn’t work out we do a storybook flip to a historic March, 2018 or March, 1993 pattern? No. If past strong El Niños are any indiction of how early-mid March is going to go….nope
  16. snowman19
    If the post 2/15 pattern is real it will still be there the end of next week. If it starts to get pushed out further in time beyond President’s Day weekend then we have serious problems, real serious
  17. snowman19
    Looks like there’s going to be very impressive + warm departures for 2/1-2/15
  18. snowman19
    It’s starting to look like the pattern change around President’s Day weekend is probably going to be real. It’s still way out there (over 15 days away), but it’s across the board model agreement for now. Let’s see if it holds through the end of next week. That’s going to be the big test if this is actually going to come to pass
  19. snowman19
    Regardless of whether this is another false alarm or post 2/15 actually produces, mid-late February is our last shot. If it fails, it’s over. Say goodnight and goodbye @NEG NAO Good luck kicking the can down the road to March if mid-late February fails. Strong Ninos are definitely not favorable in early-mid March. Look back at history
  20. snowman19
    Do you believe all the hype about 2/15 and beyond or you think it’s yet another long range mirage?
  21. snowman19
    The El Niño isn’t collapsing at all. In fact, there is a massive WWB (westerly wind burst) forming right now and the Nino is strengthening again. Nino region 3.4 is starting to warm as we speak. This is only going to extend the strong Nino through late February now. See: Nino 3.4 staying strong and warming again:
  22. snowman19
    That’s a very good point. If Canada and the CONUS gets inundated with PAC air the next 2 weeks, not only is the arctic cold gone but you are going to loose a lot of snow and ice pack, also, it’s a hell of a lot easier to put Canada back in the freezer in January (like we just saw) than it is in mid-late February. Even if the pattern flips on 2/15, it’s going to take awhile to seed Canada with arctic air again. It’s not instant. I’m sure @SnowGoose69 will agree with this
  23. snowman19
    NYC is going to go into early February with less than 3 inches of snow, total, since 11/1 and above normal temps overall the last 3 months. A very, very bad sign, winters this bad normally just don’t come back. The 1st 2 weeks of February at the very least look like garbage now and I don’t see March, 2018 walking through the door, especially given the tendency for strong Ninos to have a mild to very mild early-mid March…
  24. snowman19
    Beyond horrible. That was probably the worst runs we’ve seen since November. Something has to change in a real big way the next 2 weeks or this winter will go on life support at that point
  25. snowman19
    97-98 just called….it wants its winter back
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