snowman19

While the first couple of weeks of January may well average a positive PNA, I very seriously doubt it continues much past mid-month. I think we see a very different PNA regime in place come late January….

There is going to be a brief, transient weakening of the trades and EWBs at the beginning of January, then they come right back in region 3.4. Also, region 1+2 is going to be much warmer than 3.4….very consistent with a classic CP/Modoki La Niña event

The idea from some folks that the NPAC is just going to somehow magically stay in a default Nino look the rest of this winter with a massive, record La Niña response like this in the tropical PAC is about to go down in flames Edit: @roardog Not disagreeing that the NPAC has resembled a Nino from late November to this point in time. However, the idea from some that this is just going to continue through March, no way. This winter would have to completely defy the laws of physics and reality for that to happen. This wasn’t just some week long Niña push, it’s been a strong, record breaking, sustained Niña push since November. The effects are going to be lagged, but there has to be an equal response to the tropical PAC in the NPAC. I don’t see it (Nino-like look) continuing much beyond mid-January and the models are starting to reflect this

Yes

This is definitely historic strengthening for this late in the season. I’m sure the MEI also dropped like a rock, probably high-end moderate, borderline strong like the RONI. We have way, way surpassed the 2008 late bloomer La Niña strengthening. It’s incredibly rare to see a Niña event just take off like this in the NDJ trimonthly period @bluewave @donsutherland1 @40/70 Benchmark

Either the GEFS or the EPS is going to have an epic fail. They are 100% polar opposite with the January pattern

1/1-1/20+? Beyond 1/20? Not sure about that one. I can see it lasting to mid-month but not locking in for the entire month. I don’t think we get very far beyond mid-January before we start seeing -PNA dumping into the west. The GEFS is probably rushing it, but the signs are growing that it’s going to happen

You knew the weenie January, 1996 “analog” was coming. I’m laughing at a tweet I just saw: “January-February 2011 let’s do this!!”. Guess they didn’t bother to actually look at what happened in February, 2011 when the blocking went away and the pattern completely shutdown and never came back again….

6 degrees in Sloatsburg @CPcantmeasuresnow That was the temperature reading in my car. It’s not below zero here. But nice little paranoid conspiracy theory about me

I figured with the huge push into a Niña over the last few weeks, it was just a matter of time before the modeling caught on and started dumping -PNA into the west. They are probably rushing it though, don’t think it actually starts until mid-January or more likely just after that point, which would be climo for a front-loaded Nina winter

I was never expecting a blowtorch winter, that’s why I went with a +2F - +4F average for Dec-Mar. But yes, definitely colder than I had expected up to this point in time and more -EPO than I had expected. Now the real question everyone cares about….what does the rest of this winter do snow wise? In the end, no one cares about the cold….if this ends up being a below average snowfall winter, people will call it a fail and say it sucked even if we average -5F from Dec-Mar

Ok. I’m not saying the NPAC hasn’t resembled a Nino. I was speaking in terms of the cold and snow so far (albeit) nothing like 10-11 snow wise to this point. There are very clearly Niña influences in this pattern and the tropical PAC is and has been very strongly into a Niña state. There’s also no guarantee that the NPAC stays in a Nino like state either

As far as La Niña winters go, just in terms of cold, not snow so far obviously, maybe 10-11 wasn’t too horrible of an analog, 10-11 was night and day at this point with the record -NAO/-AO blocking. That winter was a classic front-loaded Niña too. If that’s the canonical Niña progression we are going to follow, the cold/blocking hangs around till mid-late January, then goes -PNA/Aleutian ridge with tropical forcing in the Maritime Continent

We’ll see, my guess is that a -PNA takes shape mid-late January

So much for all the non stop +TNH hype for weeks on end. If that’s correct, that’s not +TNH…..no Hudson Bay vortex

Just saw a measurement of 2.4 in Sloatsburg. So really not that much more than NYC. I think the official city measurement is like 1.7 or something like that

2-3. I was expecting an inch or so yesterday based on what the morning Euro was showing but it overperformed. The Euro is not what it used to be

The NAM is total outlier garbage. Throw it in the dumpster. The EURO is the way to go. While it’s not great in the longer range sometimes, when you’re this close in, the Euro is deadly accurate

We are and have been very strongly into La Niña mode

Westerlies in regions 1+2 and 3 are normal in CP Niña events. Those regions stay warmer than where the event is centered in 3.4

As classic a CP Nina as you will ever see. Surface and subsurface. I do not believe for one second that we see a sustained +PNA January. In fact, I think we go full on -PNA especially mid-late month

New NWS forecast: https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter

Ok

I’m as confused as you

Noise. Nothing has changed since yesterday, very good model consensus (minus the awful NAM) on less than an inch for NYC and 1-2 for the NW suburbs, with the 2 inch amounts being up towards Orange, Passaic, Sussex. @donsutherland1