mahk_webstah

Yup. It is now Sunday afternoon data and we are only barely inside 72. It's been a fun read today here in the sanitarium thread.

It is Sunday morning at 12z

My use of “a lot” was definitely an unintended overstatement. What I think is that the models will come a lot closer at 12Z and 18Z today and then overnight and tomorrow we’ll start to see a slow trend toward something that’s more north and west and may be a little more impressive. I’ve been watching my weather underground accumulation protection from Wednesday be somewhere around 8 inches a couple days ago and slowly drop to about 2 1/2 inches as of this morning. I expect that to go back up in the end maybe around 5 inches inches

Did he listen to Scott and Will? That’s basically my default every time. LOL. If I was in Vegas I think I would go with those odds every time.

Responding to Tip, I would go with the models coming a lot closer today and then a slow trend north and west. That’s just based on how Will and Scott described this set up a couple of days ago and the likelihood that this ends up coming north. This feels like one of those situations where you do get a trend back to the north in the end. Eventually 3 -6+For many

and usually there's a run that shows 10-14 and a weenie like me gets all hyped. Then you say something about swfe climo. Then Brian says something about warm tongues. Then much of SNE gets a bad attitude. Then we get like 6-8, maybe 10 isolated. Been there, done that, bring it.

Next GTG in Concord? Or CH?

About an inch here maybe a tad more. Latitude wise I am between 17 and 18 but at 600 ft. It is just enough distance and elevation from the river usually.

don't you mean a "severe blizzard?"

this pattern could be bread and butter for you and maybe me...we'll see

Thank you for that explanation Tip! I like your notion of Scooter highs because that usually means a lot of swfe love up this way.

How far are we/what would it take for those 3 ridges to bridge one to the other and shove the cold south? That looks like a great pattern for Quebec City in terms of gradient

thats what she said. I expect snow that sticks late in November and the 1st half of Dec up here...but it usually isn't significant and/or melts quickly. The snowpack should start 2nd half Dec and get beat up a couple of times but stay around mostly until early-mid March. That is my general expectation for a slightly better than average winter.

Seems more unclear than ever how things will break as we move into December. In the meantime it’s cold and things are freezing up and there will at least be some snow in the air over the next week. And the models will keep shifting around to find the next pattern after our somewhat persistent troughing in the NE

I do like the persistance of cold, which might not have been anticipated? Long rangers are verifying colder lately, but also snowstorms aren't verifying. But it is November. It has been nicely seasonably chilly, ponds freezing over, etc. We just need 2-4 inches and it will really feel like winter. We are perhaps closer than we think.