SouthCoastMA

That trough in the mountain west needs to be 1000 miles to the east if Maria is to get anywhere close

Np. The new run actually looks a bit further SE. I'll take some rain and 40-50 mph gusts at this point

That's last night's run.

The LLC wobbled back to almost 72 West..but not sure that will change much in the end.

It was a noticeable jog to the NW but likely temporary..and I believe models had this

The 12z is near the benchmark. Not sure Id consider that a 'almost direct landfall'

The model bust around 3/17 was a disappointment..I remember a bunch of models temporarily (maybe 2 or 3 cycles) showing a huge hit for eastern mass...then it completely evaporated within 48 hours.

Sandy was mentioned again And yes, that track is interesting for SE MASS, especially the Cape.

Barring these two scenarios: extra tropical transition like we saw with Noel, where we got some damn strong winds mixing down...or a landfall into LI/RI/Cape.., I'm only expecting some gusty winds, heavy surf, and some downpours but nothing crazy. A warm core Jose would need to strengthen like Edouard did in 96 to be more impressive than what is currently being advertised.

12z hurricane models are clustered around the benchmark..and some near nantucket. A shift east vs 6z. goalposts narrowing?

referring to the Aug 31 2004 Hermine...not the 2016 storm. Interesting that both hermines "landfalled" up here.

Hermine landfalled over my head as a low level swirl with a few clouds and a 15mph gust. Pretty epic

The euro has some semblance of a tropical storm just south of us on Day 7. It looks slow moving and weakening, though..so maybe we'd get some gusty winds and some minor surge

The euro punts Jose like Baxter on the bridge, at the last minute

You'd clearly need that trough to slow down by about 24 hours or so..its been trending the other way. Otherwise the track is being steered by high pressure which either favors a WNW track into the Carolinas or a recurve. You would need perfect timing of a retreating high to get a further north track