Math/Met

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  1. The NAM soundings are supportive of that for Wednesday night/ Thursday morning. Steep low level lapse rates as 850mb temps drop to below -10C by Thursday morning. Those are always fun if you can get under one.
  2. I was just looking at that and wondered if you guys were talking about it. The soundings on the NAM are pretty impressive.
  3. I was thinking the same thing earlier. We had no problems with moisture. Night could have made a significant difference.
  4. Obviously accumulations vary depending on the surface with these marginal temps and warm ground, but I have nearly an 1 inch on my car. Still coming down at a decent rate, but it’s having a hard time adding to the accumulation. It takes heavy snow rates to really add to the accumulation. The time of day didn’t help here either.
  5. The Greeneville airport is down to 32 and reporting .25 visibility.
  6. 00z Euro has significantly improved for East TN. A step in the right direction.
  7. Strictly in terms of precip totals, there was a decent jump in the right direction for East Tn on the 00z UKMET vs 12z.
  8. I believe this snowfall output was from a weak inverted trough event. Totals increased at the last minute if I remember correctly.
  9. When it comes to downslope winds in East TN, I would never say never. There are so many possible ways for it to happens. I assume that areas along the mountains of SE TN would have a slightly better chance of that happening, due to the surface winds being SE on the other side of the mountains in that area. I think areas farther to the northeast would be pretty safe from downslope in this situation. Just to be clear since there is some discussion about this now, this isn't a significant inverted trough. It is very subtle (mainly seen in wind field), but it maybe just enough to help us out a little. Especially in eastern counties. And the northerly flow down the valley could help areas further south with temps, as Jeff mentioned.
  10. In these cases, the inverted trough is induced by the terrain. The air flow is different on either side of the mountains, so you can basically get a "pinching" (not a very technical way of describing it) between the two flows. Neither side has to deal with much downslope because it creates rising air in the low levels. It is a fixed feature because the mountains are a permanent feature. Hope that makes sense.
  11. I always try to looks at small details for any event in East TN. Mainly because the terrain can cause things to go unexpectedly wrong or sometimes in our favor. Looking at the NAM, the thing I like about this system is that low level winds over WNC are from a more easterly direction during the start of the system, while winds over the ETN valley are more northerly. This typically happens when we get an inverted trough induced along the mountains, which helps provide some low level lift and often produces more precip than modeled. This current situation is more subtle, but the characteristics are still there. It’s something to watch to see if precip trends upward as we go.
  12. Just got back from Camp Creek. The wind is pretty strong there tonight. I estimate that it was approaching 70mph where I was. I've definitely felt much stronger there in other events, but it was still worth the trip. Fairly consistent gusts.
  13. I’ll move this to the main discussion based on Carvers suggestion. Just wanted to say that the wind event potential has trended a little stronger in my opinion. I thought the MRX discussion was very good regarding this potential.The NAM has slightly shifted the 850mb wind to more of a southerly direction, and that could be just enough to increase the mountain wave enhancement. You don’t really need a southeasterly flow at 850mb because the cross barrier flow is determined at lower levels based on statistical analysis. We often have a southerly or even slightly SW flow over the valley during a mountain wave event. This current event is right on the threshold, so it could go either way in terms of significant MW enhancement. Everything else is favorable. Regardless of MW enhancement, the LLJ is strong enough to potentially cause some tree problems in the mountain and foothills due to saturated ground conditions.
  14. That’s definitely something to watch. There will be some additional strong winds... likely starting tomorrow afternoon. It doesn’t look like a strong wind event at this point, but enough for some concern. I don’t think it would take much to cause some downed trees at this point. If the LLJ trends slightly more southerly (versus SW), then the potential for higher gusts will increase.
  15. It is a prolonged event, but wind gusts should pick up by Saturday morning and continue into the evening. The strongest LLJ winds move in later in the day. Sometimes there's a weakening of winds during the afternoon, and it gets stronger as the sun goes down.