Math/Met

Meteorologist
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  1. According to the Greeneville Sun, the UT Experiment Station recorded 0.24 inches of rain in September, which was 3.00 inches below normal for that location. My rain gauge recorded 0.20 yesterday, which brought my final September total to .24 as well.
  2. Some of those totals seem a little low, but I have no way of knowing for sure. I think the Greeneville total is pretty accurate. That 21.0 in Greene Co. was likely from the UT Experiment Station. They used to keep daily hand written records. The two biggest snows I saw in their data were 21” in 1993 and 18” in 1998.
  3. Recent gust of around 71mph at Camp Creek. The rain overcame the downslope flow and moved over the area, otherwise I think the gusts would have been higher so far. Edit: Update from MRX discussion.
  4. Already gusting close to 60 at Camp Creek. How strong this event gets will likely be determined by how effective downsloping is at keeping rain out of the area. When rain moves in, it usually prevents stronger gusts.
  5. Winds are starting to pick up along the mountains and foothills. There could be a significant wind event tonight in a few spots. The wind profile on models is more favorable now. I could see an upgrade to a high wind warning being warranted as the event gets going.
  6. The link between meteorology and social/behavioral science is an interesting field of study. I'm certainly no expert on that. However, one of my grad school professors was interested in that field. If I remember correctly, the correlation between false alarms and people not responding to the next severe threat was pretty weak. For many people, they will either take watches and warnings seriously or not based on their own personal trust in the forecast(or belief in science in general). That trust is probably independent of any previous false alarms. I'm sure we've all heard people say "they never get it right". That statement is obviously false and they probably know that at some level, but you would never get those people to take shelter during a warning. They would probably need to visually confirm a tornado before they would seek shelter.
  7. Just wanted to say congrats to TN fans. I knew today would be tough for UK. UT is a much better team than they showed the first game. As bad as UT played the first game, UK took it to another level of bad today. They were terrible today. Got to give UT credit though, they played with more energy and made it tough on kentucky to get anything going offensively. As a fan of good basketball, it's a shame that neither game was competitive. Bone was outstanding today. If he plays like that, UT should go a long way in the tournament.
  8. I saw that picture on social media and originally thought "there's no way that's real". That’s ridiculous.. Regardless of the true story behind the picture, it shows a lack of integrity on his part for even agreeing to do an LSU game. He knew that picture was out there.
  9. Is that picture of the ref ( LSU-TN game) holding a LSU shirt real? If so, that's a terrible look for SEC officials.
  10. Glad they did quality control and straightened that out. Are they saying 81mph was the peak gust today? Just wondering because it looked like there were legitimate gusts in the mid to upper 80's based on the plot. Not that it really matters at this point, just wondering if all recorded gusts were higher than actual winds.
  11. I don’t want to post too much about the mountain wave event, but here is why I think the red data plots are incorrect. If you expand out to a 720 hour plot, you can see errors show up several times. The peak (green) is usually very accurate.
  12. I haven't heard any major damage reports, but it looks like there are a lot of trees down in southern Greene County. WCYB Probably not the best idea to be standing there.
  13. That’s unfortunate. It may end up being correct, but I would be VERY surprised. The near 90mph gusts seem legit. I have a full dataset for research purposes that goes back to 2008, and 123mph would be way above anything recorded there. I do think it’s possible for Camp Creek to gust over 100mph in mountain wave events. I’ve speculated that it was over 100mph in 2004, but there was no reliable data at that point.
  14. I think you are correct to ignore the red data on that chart. It is unreliable. The peak gust data (green) is probably accurate, so nearly 90mph.