Cobalt

The Euro is close to being a southern outlier compared to the EPS.. in intensity too it seems. the EPS did not like what the Euro decided to throw out tonight. Euro for reference

Mhm, the preicp mean for the costal aspect is improved too. In fact part of it might be because a cluster of means are decently NW during this time (disagrees with Euro), in fact 850s are borderline for part of that, but that's probably the least of our worries atm

This is actually NW of 12z lol Control is still a bomb too. Weird that the EPS went up pretty well compared to it's Op brother.

The EPS looks pretty similar to 12z, if not a tiny bit North. Certainly not a step back. I'd imagine that ensembles are pretty decent at this range.

GFS transfer still gets Norther Maryland into some of the costal snow.. let's see if it stalls there

Considering the worry of fringe.. that's a decent run. Still basically WSW snows for DC and west, Northern Maryland gets a great snow

The control is a full on Virginia special.. costal is pivoting bands up through DC at this time with temps in the mid 20s. Nuts

As far as I remember, the actual costal feature of that storm was found pretty far in, maybe like 3-4 days beforehand. Before that the WAA was looking like the main event, and it continued to trend warmer, putting DC out of the game before the costal part got latched onto.

18z snow mean.. Compared to 12z.. Precip for these panels sucks to compare because it's only 24 hour intervals on WxBell, but the snow mean should suffice There's a word for this but I can't seem to find it... anyone?

Definite improvement. Kuchera is even higher, and we get into the costal action this time. It's very obviously bleeding to the Euro. Even then.. if you find this a disaster, you need to move to a place that gets way more snow, preferably out of this subforum's range.

GFS has 4-6" from the WAA alone, with more to the North of us as the costal gets cranking. Def a step in the right direction, this feels like Saturday's trends for the Thursday event where the GFS slowly sank SE but we had that glimmer of hope

ICON at hr 117. Compared to previous run it's rather similar, hard to compare since it actually scoots the lp in faster, but the lp seems maybe like 25-50 miles north and somewhat weaker than the 12z run. Decent WAA thump with it too

Improvement

If we're taking the Icon's snowfall duration into consideration.. are you talking about this weekend or the weekend after that?

NAM range for onset of WAA might make sense.. by then the track before costal is pretty set and then the details that'll come into med/short range will just be the stuff after. Got a long 24-48hrs to go!