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About Treckasec

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    Tabernacle, NJ

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  1. What would you call the TABS model track? A loop-de-loop-de-loop-de-loop-de-loop?
  2. In about 60-72 hours, we should figure out if Jose could still be in play to affect the U.S. Models that have Jose go OTS have it get picked up by a trough. The inland models have Jose avoid being picked up, allowing it to approach. Like Irma showed us, we really shouldn't look at 240-hour runs and get all hot and bothered because of a sexy eastern seaboard hit. Let's see if Jose will even be in position first, then we can figure out trough placements and what Jose will do.
  3. I think the ECMWF senses all of the American weenies up ... I think it's telling us to go to sleep! That's what I'm about to do, haha
  4. hmm... I think that they look fine, but the storm's pressure likely wouldn't be that low... sub-900??
  5. It seems that a lot of the 12z models have been coming to the overall pattern the GFS showed... still got ways to go, but still interesting that there are greater similarities to the GFS now (even if not guaranteeing the same end result)
  6. hmm, just kidding... doesn't look like it'll be further east. 500mb shows that some higher heights built in towards the east ...
  7. Could it landfall further east?
  8. Looks like it wants to cut off again. 5-6 days until we know for certain what'll happen with the trough, and by then the storm track will be much more certain.
  9. No 50" of rain on the GFS ... apples to oranges.
  10. I do think it's a bit silly that people are saying cat 5 when Irma landfalls as a cat 2-cat 3 on one of the GFS solutions a week+ out... still *very* significant, but people going wacko over the pressure will make social media go wacko. Shame that things can spread like wildfire ... this is why people blame meteorologists when things are hyped and models are wrong.
  11. Goes to show you the uncertainty of the final outcome... pretty different from 18z GEFS guidance. OTS solution has been trending less and less likely overtime, so I'd say that the greatest takeaway is to focus on consistent greater-picture trends such as less OTS solutions. Still pretty funny to me how clustered 18z GEFS further south, and now it's a fairly wide net with the eastern seaboard under the gun. Would be pretty worrying if we're painting the same picture 84 hours out.
  12. Let's not get too worried with the cat 4/cat 5 maps. While the GFS did portray a hurricane, using instantweathermaps it seemed that maximum winds at landfall were high end cat 2/ low end cat 3. Even so, we shouldn't expect this solution to play out when we are still whiles away until we can start figuring out the trough situation with greater accuracy. This is one solution 8-9 days out... crazy to look at, but it's unwise to take it with anything larger than a grain of salt.
  13. On this specific run, it seems to landfall as a cat 2 or high-end cat 1, coming towards the coast as a cat 3? Surface pressure's are likely misleading. Regardless, solution would be pretty bad!
  14. Haha, that'd be wild here! One of many solutions, these are exciting model runs, but not the final solution. I wonder if GEFS is going to be any close to the control run, or if it'll continue in the path like last time. Still many options on the table, this is just one of the bad ones.