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About Treckasec

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    Millersville, PA

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  1. Definitely a weenie run, but I thought I'd post this for archival purposes...
  2. The upcoming pattern may just be more common in El Niño's... Even Jan 1996, Dec 2010, and Jan 2011 [La Niñas with a significant snowstorm] are on that list! It's surprising just how close to a robust snowstorm the pattern is, but there are wrinkles in the details preventing the storm from currently seeming more significant... While analogs are helpful, reality will always prevail over similar—yet different—situations. It's certainly something to watch, given that we have a number of days left to track the system, but ensembles haven't been very enthusiastic... It may be a signal that this storm doesn't have as much leeway to grow more significant, but stranger modeling madness has occurred in much smaller timeframes!
  3. Is there a resource you (or someone else who'd know!) could point to for reading about the R# and how it relates to mixing winds to the surface? How are you determining the R#, and what values are you looking at as a threshold for more wind mixing than.. For example, the BUFKIT momentum transfer product, would suggest?
  4. It's... Not the best for snow :O) It gets hyped up quite a bit, but it tends to overdo snowfall ^ That's an 80-hour forecast for April 7th, 2018 And for January 20th, 2019, just to provide another example... 73-hour forecast:
  5. The ceiling of this convective event isn't very high... Even in the marginal area, instability/SFC instability looks rather limited, which should cap the potential for strong storms. For NE, the low seems to track too far south for any appreciable surge of warm air to allow for more instability... I don't see any models showing any organized convection moving through the NE region (HRRR, 3KM NAM, WRFs on TropicalTidbits)... Only stratiform rain, it seems. I would keep expectations very low...
  6. While I think that your posts might have been a bit... Harsh, I suppose... At the same time, you're not incorrect!! And plus, you've been dealing with this sort of thing for a while, so I understand the frustration... It's a shame how social media (and the media in general?) has hyped up snowy/abnormal weather for parts of the region such as the mid-atlantic, and even the Philly folk, to the point where our expectations are not even realistic to our climate. In addition, we hype up fantasy-storms and get addicted to the dopamine rush, and end up letting ourselves be crushed when the fantasy fails to match our expectations... It's a shame how things have become this way. Hopefully we, collectively, are better able to temper our expectations, because it can't be very healthy for us to obsess over such things. We can't be too upset about the weather that we can't control (climate change related weather being a different thing, haha), so we ought to enjoy the warm periods for when they come, and enjoy the truly snowy days/periods for when they come as well! We just have to recognize that this general "southern northeastern" region has a bit of a feast/famine winter climate, and we must therefore temper our expectations during *average* winters, let alone "duds"
  7. I think that there's a little too much of an... Obsessive nature when it comes to having fun, wintery patterns... There's far too much emotional investment when it comes to hoping for a snowy winter, and it is difficult to wade through many of the posts when I'd rather everyone just have fun, regardless of the weather outside! There certainly is far too much complaining, and it's a shame how much I love weather forums like these, because I keep lurking (and occasionally posting) despite the toxicity... It's too much. I'm glad that you had fun and had a proper escape from the silliness. Hopefully life can get better, because I think that it says something about the state of things when we're clinging to weather to make us happy.
  8. Do you (or anyone else) have any examples of strong storms that followed large SOI drops? I only ask since I've heard a lot before about there being a correlation between the two, but I am not sure how well the connection verifies!
  9. For what it's worth... Only some of the winters between 12-13 and 18-19 exhibited that average pattern. Those winters are: 13-14, 14-15 (not a great match, though), and 17-18. Those winters were better 'round these parts compared to the other winters: 12-13, 15-16, 16-17, and 18-19. Though, I do remember this region having some difficulties in 17-18 with being too far west for some of the coastals. Regardless, that average pattern has generally not been terrible, even if it hasn't been conducive for large, slow nor'easters like those seen in 09-10. 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19
  10. Are you seeing low-level drizzle/showers moving in the direction of surface winds?
  11. @raindancewx Thank you for sharing the basic methodology with which you decide on your forecasts!! At least, it's neat to see what major factors you look into to determine what the winter might be like. Regarding last year, I think that it's understandable that many were caught off-guard after seasonal models (and eventually, weeklies) were pushing for a -NAO to develop, with subsequent eastern U.S. troughing... Of course, these things never transpired! But given the persistence of weather models—which we give more credit to than us humans—it seemed that a cold winter was inevitable! Until it wasn't, of course : ) So with that said, I don't think that people were outrageous to have expected a cold winter, and I was personally expecting to have one as well! But I enjoyed reading your posts and your reasonings for why you believed that the winter would not be as snowy/cold in the NE as people said... And it turned out you were right! I definitely look forward to your next forecasts, whether they spell out a warm or cold winter in the eastern states
  12. When considering the expanse of the cooler SSTAs, it seems like the ENSO should lean on the cooler side, rather than on the warmer side. Unless we lose those cooler subsurface + surface waters, I would think that a cool neutral is more probable.
  13. The reason for the due-north movement is more clear here... The core of the high pressure is due east of the storm, with rather weakly positive anomalies north of the storm. The storm is instead steered northward, with no substantial blocking just north, but with a strong enough high to its east. It should not move due west on this frame.
  14. They're just (somewhat) joking is all! (We need help...) They're acting as though we're going to have a positive NAO stretching from late November, all the way to early March!