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About Treckasec

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    Tabernacle, NJ

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  1. Higher velocities on radar are corresponding with gustier winds right now.
  2. There're only a teensy bit of cool anomalies though. The cooler waters are also cooler than last years forecast in that same area, and the anomalies stretch out for a wider region. The waters out west in the current CFS forecast are also a fair bit colder relative to the waters to the east. I believe this would result in a La Nina being west based as opposed to east-central based.
  3. Hmm... This looks more west than east or central based I'd say! Anomalies are only a teensy bit below normal in the eastern ENSO region, with the deepest blues out towards the west ENSO region in that forecast. These are the current anomalies... The anomalies are right up against the coast there, with some slightly above average SSTAs out west. The CFS forecasting the anomaly positions to change does make me curious to see how things may (or may not) change in the next month or two.
  4. Hmm ... we’ll just have to see! I think that it makes sense to me ... it’s not just about how strong Jose is, I think Maria will be influenced to go towards the weakness in ridging by Jose whether it’s breathing its last breathe or is still an actual storm. If the ridge doesn’t build back in, or is unable to, Maria will go towards the weakness and not the coast. That’s how I see it at least!
  5. What would you call the TABS model track? A loop-de-loop-de-loop-de-loop-de-loop?
  6. In about 60-72 hours, we should figure out if Jose could still be in play to affect the U.S. Models that have Jose go OTS have it get picked up by a trough. The inland models have Jose avoid being picked up, allowing it to approach. Like Irma showed us, we really shouldn't look at 240-hour runs and get all hot and bothered because of a sexy eastern seaboard hit. Let's see if Jose will even be in position first, then we can figure out trough placements and what Jose will do.
  7. I think the ECMWF senses all of the American weenies up ... I think it's telling us to go to sleep! That's what I'm about to do, haha
  8. hmm... I think that they look fine, but the storm's pressure likely wouldn't be that low... sub-900??
  9. It seems that a lot of the 12z models have been coming to the overall pattern the GFS showed... still got ways to go, but still interesting that there are greater similarities to the GFS now (even if not guaranteeing the same end result)
  10. hmm, just kidding... doesn't look like it'll be further east. 500mb shows that some higher heights built in towards the east ...
  11. Could it landfall further east?
  12. Looks like it wants to cut off again. 5-6 days until we know for certain what'll happen with the trough, and by then the storm track will be much more certain.
  13. No 50" of rain on the GFS ... apples to oranges.
  14. I do think it's a bit silly that people are saying cat 5 when Irma landfalls as a cat 2-cat 3 on one of the GFS solutions a week+ out... still *very* significant, but people going wacko over the pressure will make social media go wacko. Shame that things can spread like wildfire ... this is why people blame meteorologists when things are hyped and models are wrong.