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About Treckasec

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Tabernacle, NJ

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  1. Treckasec

    E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2019 OBS Thread

    I don't think this was a "meh" event at all! Severe thunderstorm criteria were reached/damaging winds were reported in locations such as Philadelphia as a relatively stronger portion of the QLCS moved across our CWA, as shown in the storm reports... Given the dynamics of the storm system, the time of year, and the time of day, I think this severe weather event is appreciable at the very least! And while most storm reports have likely been recorded by now, I'm sure there'll be some more to come in..
  2. Treckasec

    January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat

    That deeper model analysis/interpreting is very important!! I don't know about UKMET's phasing biases and if it has a tendency to phase more often than not, though I would imagine its south bias suggests that it is less likely to phase(?), but that's just a guess...! The specifics of each storm will affect models in different ways of course... I'm inclined to hedge against snowy solutions for areas close to the coast and farther to the south though! My reasoning is certainly not very scientific, nor as educated as the logic an actual meteorologist/forecaster may use, haha... The tendency with recent storms on models *seem* to be a north trend, though these patterns/trends may certainly be broken at any time ... But with models (such as the EPS, GEFS, and their OPs) trending away from more suppressed storm tracks with snow tracks favorable for snow/all snow, I feel that getting a true snowstorm is becoming less likely... For this specific storm at least! But like forkyfork just posted, there is a pretty darn strong high in place, so CAD (and the high's push on the low pressure in general) may be being under-modeled at the moment! With that said, I still stand by the idea that this storm should be more rainy than wintry, but considering how many model runs there are left to sift through before models converge on a solution, I guess we can't really settle on a solution at all! Just keep observing the trends...
  3. Treckasec

    January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat

    The UKMET was too far south in the long/medium range with the previous system (remember having trouble finding the MSLP low because of how south/weak it was on the UKMET?) ... And considering it seems to be a known bias, I wouldn't recommend getting to giddy unless it's supported by more reliable models and ensembles (such as the EPS, and even the GEFS to an extent) The Deep Thunder model seems to gather attention every so often, and then become obscure again ... I can only remember one forecast from the Deep Thunder model around a year or two ago, where it projected close to a foot of snow in my area (this was around the 84 hour tracking range), where in reality, the storm ended up more repressed and with much less snow... I wish I had maps to support this, but sadly, I can only go off of memory... My main point here is that despite the promising press surrounding this experimental model, I think that it is best to not hug the model—or any for that matter—without stronger model support and consensus. Overall, it seems that models are tending towards more rainy solutions, followed by "vodka cold," as some like to say... :0) At this juncture, colder solutions and trends are certainly possible, but I think that tempering expectations and not being swept up in the model hype is the best thing to do for now.
  4. Treckasec

    January Medium/Long Range Discussion

    Our last extended(ish) period of a generally -NAO was in March... And though it was only for a month, it did deliver. For the time being, it's nice to have a threat to track—regardless of whether or not it works out. It takes away some of the pain of this generally putrid pattern we've been stuck in While we've been looking two weeks ahead for these past two months, we can certainly hope that our "fabled" February is going to make an appearance ... soon!
  5. Treckasec

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    Wow! I found the site just yesterday ... Especially nice on that site is being able to find soundings for the FV3-GFS
  6. Treckasec

    December Banter 2018

    Looks like the Deep Thunder model
  7. Treckasec

    The Panic Room--Winter 2018-2019

    With the right attitude (and altitude), rain is just "potential snow"
  8. Treckasec

    Major Hurricane Florence

    tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/# Click on Florence in the map on the homepage. On the next screen, you can choose different satellite imageries, and on the left, you can animate the satellite by clicking on AniGIF
  9. Treckasec

    July Discobs Thread

  10. Treckasec

    March 6 -7 Noreaster Obs Thread

    Not good ... lots of snapping, along with sounds of a transformer a few minutes ago.
  11. Treckasec

    March 6 -7 Noreaster Obs Thread

    Holy cow! That's a ton of snow! Here's how it looks in Tabernacle at the moment!
  12. Treckasec

    E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2017 OBS Thread

    Higher velocities on radar are corresponding with gustier winds right now.
  13. Treckasec

    Weak La Nina Winter

    There're only a teensy bit of cool anomalies though. The cooler waters are also cooler than last years forecast in that same area, and the anomalies stretch out for a wider region. The waters out west in the current CFS forecast are also a fair bit colder relative to the waters to the east. I believe this would result in a La Nina being west based as opposed to east-central based.
  14. Treckasec

    Weak La Nina Winter

    Hmm... This looks more west than east or central based I'd say! Anomalies are only a teensy bit below normal in the eastern ENSO region, with the deepest blues out towards the west ENSO region in that forecast. These are the current anomalies... The anomalies are right up against the coast there, with some slightly above average SSTAs out west. The CFS forecasting the anomaly positions to change does make me curious to see how things may (or may not) change in the next month or two.
  15. Treckasec

    Hurricane Maria

    Hmm ... we’ll just have to see! I think that it makes sense to me ... it’s not just about how strong Jose is, I think Maria will be influenced to go towards the weakness in ridging by Jose whether it’s breathing its last breathe or is still an actual storm. If the ridge doesn’t build back in, or is unable to, Maria will go towards the weakness and not the coast. That’s how I see it at least!