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About Treckasec

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Tabernacle, NJ

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  1. Treckasec

    2019 ENSO

    When considering the expanse of the cooler SSTAs, it seems like the ENSO should lean on the cooler side, rather than on the warmer side. Unless we lose those cooler subsurface + surface waters, I would think that a cool neutral is more probable.
  2. Treckasec

    Major Hurricane Humberto

    The reason for the due-north movement is more clear here... The core of the high pressure is due east of the storm, with rather weakly positive anomalies north of the storm. The storm is instead steered northward, with no substantial blocking just north, but with a strong enough high to its east. It should not move due west on this frame.
  3. Treckasec

    Is next winter looking like a disaster?

    They're just (somewhat) joking is all! (We need help...) They're acting as though we're going to have a positive NAO stretching from late November, all the way to early March!
  4. Treckasec

    E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2019 OBS Thread

    Rainfall finally ending now... Weather stations within a few miles from my area are reporting from 5.00" of rain, up to ~6.50" of rain.
  5. Treckasec

    E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2019 OBS Thread

    Nearby weather stations (Tabernacle, NJ) are approaching, or have already exceeded 3" of rain for the day, with 2.5" of that rainfall having been in the past hour. Sizable puddles and "ponds" have formed in the yard here.
  6. Treckasec

    E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2019 OBS Thread

    I usually expect a tempered threat for severe thunderstorms when the atmosphere is as saturated as it is today, since updrafts are weakened by having to lift air with a high moisture content, and without any pockets of drier air to get entrained in the storm to produce downbursts and gustier winds in storms, more thunderstorms end up being garden-variety than not. With that said, veering low-level winds in the area might allow for isolated supercellular storms & a brief tornado, though garden-variety storms and downpours should be the "main storm mode" today... Convective allowing models such as the NAMs, HRRR, and the WRFs have been showing some line segments of storms forming, with possible bowing structures... Though there isn't any dry air aloft to enhance downdrafts, there can still be strong/severe wind gusts in storms—particularly when segments of storms bow out.
  7. Treckasec

    E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2019 OBS Thread

    Impressive! It looks like an area of strong, straight-line winds going off of the velocity on radar... The portion that hit you, at least! I was wondering if those winds were mixing to the ground, or if they weren't... I'd like to hear more confirmation, but those strong winds aloft are serious.
  8. Could it be possible that the photo was taken at a section of the line that was bowing out? That might've caused the "round" look to the storm, outside of the wide lens/panaroma.
  9. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/state/images/
  10. Treckasec

    E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2019 OBS Thread

    https://weather.us/radar-us/chester/reflectivity/KDIX_20190426-204151z.html Here is a solid radar archiving website! You might want to check it out for yourself... I'll post the radar capture for 4:40 PM (Because of DST, the time is off by an hour on the website) It looks to me like there is a little appendage over your area on this frame... There very well could've been a spin-up at this time! https://www.weather.gov/crh/stormreports?sid=dvn You should file in a storm report, and describe the damage & wind intensity + the possibility that this could've been a spin-up in the QLCS. Impressive stuff, Lady Di!
  11. Treckasec

    E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2019 OBS Thread

    I don't think this was a "meh" event at all! Severe thunderstorm criteria were reached/damaging winds were reported in locations such as Philadelphia as a relatively stronger portion of the QLCS moved across our CWA, as shown in the storm reports... Given the dynamics of the storm system, the time of year, and the time of day, I think this severe weather event is appreciable at the very least! And while most storm reports have likely been recorded by now, I'm sure there'll be some more to come in..
  12. Treckasec

    January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat

    That deeper model analysis/interpreting is very important!! I don't know about UKMET's phasing biases and if it has a tendency to phase more often than not, though I would imagine its south bias suggests that it is less likely to phase(?), but that's just a guess...! The specifics of each storm will affect models in different ways of course... I'm inclined to hedge against snowy solutions for areas close to the coast and farther to the south though! My reasoning is certainly not very scientific, nor as educated as the logic an actual meteorologist/forecaster may use, haha... The tendency with recent storms on models *seem* to be a north trend, though these patterns/trends may certainly be broken at any time ... But with models (such as the EPS, GEFS, and their OPs) trending away from more suppressed storm tracks with snow tracks favorable for snow/all snow, I feel that getting a true snowstorm is becoming less likely... For this specific storm at least! But like forkyfork just posted, there is a pretty darn strong high in place, so CAD (and the high's push on the low pressure in general) may be being under-modeled at the moment! With that said, I still stand by the idea that this storm should be more rainy than wintry, but considering how many model runs there are left to sift through before models converge on a solution, I guess we can't really settle on a solution at all! Just keep observing the trends...
  13. Treckasec

    January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat

    The UKMET was too far south in the long/medium range with the previous system (remember having trouble finding the MSLP low because of how south/weak it was on the UKMET?) ... And considering it seems to be a known bias, I wouldn't recommend getting to giddy unless it's supported by more reliable models and ensembles (such as the EPS, and even the GEFS to an extent) The Deep Thunder model seems to gather attention every so often, and then become obscure again ... I can only remember one forecast from the Deep Thunder model around a year or two ago, where it projected close to a foot of snow in my area (this was around the 84 hour tracking range), where in reality, the storm ended up more repressed and with much less snow... I wish I had maps to support this, but sadly, I can only go off of memory... My main point here is that despite the promising press surrounding this experimental model, I think that it is best to not hug the model—or any for that matter—without stronger model support and consensus. Overall, it seems that models are tending towards more rainy solutions, followed by "vodka cold," as some like to say... :0) At this juncture, colder solutions and trends are certainly possible, but I think that tempering expectations and not being swept up in the model hype is the best thing to do for now.
  14. Treckasec

    January Medium/Long Range Discussion

    Our last extended(ish) period of a generally -NAO was in March... And though it was only for a month, it did deliver. For the time being, it's nice to have a threat to track—regardless of whether or not it works out. It takes away some of the pain of this generally putrid pattern we've been stuck in While we've been looking two weeks ahead for these past two months, we can certainly hope that our "fabled" February is going to make an appearance ... soon!
  15. Treckasec

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    Wow! I found the site just yesterday ... Especially nice on that site is being able to find soundings for the FV3-GFS