wolfie09

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A longwave trough will slowly pass over our region this period, bringing chances for rain showers each day. Early in the period cold air aloft and southwesterly flow ahead of the trough may generate lake effect rain to the northeast of the lakes Wednesday - Friday, while Friday night and Saturday a westerly flow will focus rain showers east of the Lakes. October will open with much below normal temperatures, with highs Thursday - Saturday 6 to 12F degrees below normal. Overnights will be chilly, and while there will be concerns for frost/freeze late in the period as 850 hPa temperatures dip below zero Celsius, the presence of the upper level trough/moisture and lacking strong surface high/subsidence may not lead to much areal coverage of frost/freeze.

Just under 1/4" of rain so far this month..

Some much needed rain..

Unfortunately even as Monday into Tuesday forecast seems to be getting better tuned now, the Wednesday into Thursday period is becoming fraught with uncertainty. Mainly this is tied to the ECMWF and Canadian handling of upper trough over the middle of the North America. Both these models are insistent on larger trough from central Canada to northern Plains/Upper Great Lakes with stronger trough digging farther south across the southern United States. This solution is somewhat supported by 12z EC and NAEFS ensembles but it is not supported by GFS. Long story short, the non-GFS solutions would bring that southern stream system back across the northeast later Wednesday into Thursday while the GFS is more broadbrushed in bringing gradually colder and more moist cyclonic sw flow into our region within the broad troughing pattern. Current forecast is more GFS like, but looking at these trends from the ECMWF and Canadian, some adjustments to forecast may eventually be needed Wed-Thu. Eventually all models do show the trough and cold air settling across, but it may now not be until very late in the week. Models often struggle in these type of strong pattern changes and that seems like what is occurring this time around.

It's definitely passed "just changing" in the higher elevations of the tug..Took a ride through barnes corner, worth, Loraine and into N Redfield, trees looks quite advanced lol Some really nice color.. Probably should take some pics next time I roll through lol Just outside Copenhagen, 1200 feet asl..

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A pattern shift will take place through the Long Term and warm, dry weather will transition to cool, wet weather by Thursday. Unfortunalty, there are different model solutions during the Long Term period and therefore confidence remains low in regards to intensity and timing of some weather features. A southerly flow continues across the eastern Great Lakes Monday. Clouds and showers are possible as a cold front approaches from the Central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Temperatures will likely reach the 70s through the afternoon. A deepening trough across the central U.S. will become squeezed between two strong ridges on both sides by Tuesday. This may produce a cut off low across the Lower Mississippi Valley while a shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes into mid-week. Whether low pressure forms along the cold front or the cold front moves through the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday-Wednesday, showers are likely. A period of windy conditions during this time can`t be ruled out. The shortwave trough will evolve into a large scale trough across much of the eastern CONUS. Cool, Canadian air will filter south across the Great Lakes. A cool, showery period is likely late in the week.

Slower trend with the CF for the beginning of the week.. The back half of the week looks similar here with mid 50s-low 60s for highs.. Cold front that was once to approach and bring a showery day on Sunday continues to trend slower. Increased temps more on Sunday now into the upper 70s to near 80F and now have lowered to only slight chance of rain across the board, but it would appear we are on our way to a dry forecast. Slower trend in the front continues Sunday night through Monday night as well. Was looking like due to slow moving front crossing and right entrance of upper jet that some of the region on Monday would see widespread showers with even a small risk of thunder. Not so sure on that now. Temps will be cooler than the warm weekend, but if this slower trend holds, we would still make it to the lower 70s for much of the area on Monday.

Some decent colors starting to show up..

One more warmer and mostly dry day Sunday. Eventually a much cooler very fall like pattern develops during this time with increasing chances of rain. Cold front that was once to approach and bring a showery day on Sunday continues to trend slower. Increased temps more on Sunday now into the upper 70s to near 80F and now have lowered to only slight chance of rain across the board, but it would appear we are on our way to a dry forecast. Slower trend in the front continues Sunday night through Monday night as well. Was looking like due to slow moving front crossing and right entrance of upper jet that some of the region on Monday would see widespread showers with even a small risk of thunder. Not so sure on that now. Temps will be cooler than the warm weekend, but if this slower trend holds, we would still make it to the lower 70s for much of the area on Monday. Eventually, as sharp shortwave trough digging over the central CONUS lifts northeast across the lower Great Lakes, our weather will turn cooler and unsettled with showers further enhanced in intensity and coverage as cooler air flows over the warmer lakes. Could also have a period of windy conditions as well if a stronger and deepening sfc low tracks nnw of our region. Consistency in any one solution is lacking, so best to stay tuned to later forecasts for more details on when the rain and significant cooling arrives in earnest and if there will be any stronger, advisory type winds.

Looks like it on the Canadian, at the very least some enhancement..

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The nice stretch of dry weather looks like it will come to an end heading into the second half of the weekend and the first part of next week as a much more amplified pattern starts to take shape. An upper trough will dig across the upper and central Great Lakes pushing a cold front across the region on Sunday bringing the likelihood of some much needed rain and opening the door to some more seasonable temperatures for late September. A powerful shortwave will then rotate through the mean upper trough to start the new work week. This will help the trough to deepen further across the eastern U.S. while strong upper ridge builds north into western Canada. Not expecting a rain out through the entire period, however this will keep the potential for unsettled weather in the forecast through at least the first half of next week as a series of shortwaves rotate through the mean upper trough over the eastern U.S. A period of strong winds may also become possible sometime Monday or Tuesday depending on the strength and possibly a climatologically favored track of surface low pressure moving by to our west and north. Stay tuned. Otherwise, day to day cooling will occur through the period as daytime highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s on Sunday trend downward to the upper 50s to mid 60s by Tuesday.

I'm currently in Copenhagen..Looks like I'll be here at least through November.. Pretty much looking for houses mainly in Oswego county, I have looked everywhere from lacona/Redfield to Oswego/Fulton, so far lol Keep you guys posted..

Only in lewis county do you spot cows walking the streets lol