vortmax

Last night's AFD: Talk about "cold", H850 temperatures with this trough overhead will be in the -1C to -3C range across Western and North Central NY. How will this impact us? Take a look at our high temperature forecast. Highs are only expected in the mid to upper 50s. This put us more in line with what you would expect in April. Pretty impressive for early June but how impressive is this trough? Well, NAEFS mean H850 temperatures of -1C to -3C is roughly 2-3SD below normal for this time of year. Infact, the last time we had this kind of trough dates back to 2007 and 2009.

Erie Lake breeze is doing its job.

Yea, waiting for that Severe T Storm Watch to be extended into WNY.

Agree, I'd be happier if it just snowed instead...only 5 degrees away. So close.

Exactly, the snowbelts are a great way to guarantee a solid winter. Still doesn't get you past the Spring transition, but can take the edge off.

Just a blip...

LP more potent meat them though.

Let the 50 mile N creep begin!

You would think accumulation would be a problem for lower elevations, but if the temps get down to 32 and stay there then maybe. I give it 40% based on the dynamic nature of the system.

Always something interesting going on when the AFD ends with "Stay Tuned".

12z GFS trending south FV3 right over WNY: CMC similar to FV3:

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A compact system seems set to advance right along the NY/PA border very early in the long term period. The ECMWF and GFS have trended together in a very tight cluster with regard to this solution. This is a cold deviation from previous guidance and suggests a swath of very strongly forced frontogenetical precipitation to the north of the surface low track. Thermal profiles with these solutions suggest rapid cooling during the day Sunday aloft with precipitation transitioning from rain to snow. Given the dynamics and possibility of dynamical cooling, it would seem fairly impressive snowfall could be possible out of this solution. However, given the strong deviation from previous runs of the models and the likelihood of the solutions wobbling in the coming days for this period, the forecast was only trended colder with some possibility of a rain/snow mix introduced over western New York.

Elevation event...

That line looks serious.

Had a dusting of snow this AM...looked kinda like the hail above, but different...lol 5 day LP goes right over WNY on 12z GFS.