vortmax

But you give such nice summaries at the beginning!

BuffaloWeather - new thread?

Impressive disc snippet regarding wind potential: Ahead of the system, rainfall really blossoms in warm advection, however the apex of this seems to largely be north of the area, but with the density discontinuity noted along the front vis-a-vis 850 mb temperature falls from +12C to -6C over a span of 12 hours on Sunday, it would be rather amazing if it failed to rain along the cold front, even with the best forcing to our north. That said, the rainfall will not be the main event with this system. In its wake, the occluding upper level low will drive a mid-level dry slot and associated tropopause fold through the area from Sunday morning onward. This is noted by a drastic drop of the dynamic tropopause well below 700 mb across Lake Erie with an associated ribbon of starkly drier air that penetrates down toward 800 mb signifying some sort of stratospheric intrusion. That said, this will work to essentially shove all atmospheric momentum below this level and likewise allow for the development of a post-frontal 75+ knot low level jet. The progression of this feature through the area is utterly crushing both in terms of the synoptic features driving it as well as the fact it will be coming through during a diurnally favorable period of mixing out to the surface. Further, substantial drying aloft due to the tropopause fold may yield a period of sun concurrent with its passage. This would only further enhance the mixing potential. That said, bufkit momentum transfer suggests in excess of 60 kts (70+ mph) is possible along the Lake Erie shore, through Buffalo, Rochester, and into Watertown. Even elsewhere, where high wind gusts are far less frequent, very strong winds will also be possible given this method. That said, a high wind watch was issued for the entire area.

Had a guy in my Met class who rented a car for Hurricane Andrew. Basically told a story where he almost lost his life...amazing story though.

Can anyone dig up the Watch/Warning for the March 2017 event. I *think* it mentioned 75 gusts.

I remember that '97 storm as I had an s10 pickup tied with boat rope to my parents pine tree that was trying to fall. Ended up saving the tree, but man, that truck was getting lifted up during the higher gusts.

How would this one compare to March 2017? Seems similar timeframe (afternoon mixing with full sun), but slightly weaker event?

If we can get the SE ridge squished for a few weeks, it would help significantly with the storm track.

Looks like a total split of precip. Interesting that PA getting in on the action for a change, yet nothing up here.

Looks like a lot of wind.

We ended up with 3". Must be 30-1 tea kettle stuff.

Woke up to S+, 1"/hr. Tim, you under this band?? At least 2" of fluff so far.

Seems way low. We've got 5"+ easily on the ground from this little storm. .Wayne County... 2 SW Walworth 2.9 700 AM 2/18 CoCoRaHS 2 NW Palmyra 2.5 745 AM 2/18 CoCoRaHS Sodus 2.5 730 AM 2/18 Co-Op Observer 3 ESE Macedon 1.5 529 AM 2/18

Same here. We've passed 5" now.

We're pushing 5" now. Coming down good still.