vortmax

They were relatively tame near the lake, but looks like a Tornado warning around SYR.

Lol, was just looking at the radar and noticing that!!

Think we got a small hole in the line as it was quite mild with gusts maybe to 40. No hail & rain was just moderate.

Well it's back together now and looking strong! Looks like a bow echo is forming.

You guys must have gotten some by now, right??

We finally had a great 20 minute downpour - probably .4-.6 or so. I could almost see the grass getting green again!

Nice, cool and dry NE wind off the lake. This is summer.

Most local stations around here are low to mid 90s with indices up to 115. Mine is 94 and 80dp - 117hx

All hail to the mighty influence of Lakes Erie and Ontario!

Don't think so...

This is in part due to the EML. Unique situation for us!

I don't think the lakes will win out this time...with DPs in the mid-70s, there's plenty of moisture and much of the instability in above the lake influences. I may be wrong, we'll see! Looking at the cloud tops when it went over Huron/GB, it did weaken a bit, but gathering strength again over the Southern Ontario hot spot.

Looks like the MCS is forming on the northern edge of the EML and LLJ...very cool. Lots of lightning with the storms (started watching with 45/min - only 20 mins later increased to 110+/min) due to the 78+ DPs in the area. Crazy.

Now that's nice.

More about the EML mentioned in KBUF's AFD (below), with case studies from the Eastern US. Could get interesting! https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2010WAF2222363.1 As was previously mentioned, the pattern developing is a textbook for tongues of steep mid level lapse rates (EML plumes) to work from the Plains and Upper Great Lakes into our region. One can see the `birth` of the EML by looking at this mornings (12z Tues) classic inverted V soundings from Albuquerque (KABQ) and El Paso (KEPZ). HYSPLIT trajectory forecasts advect the mid and upper portions of this airmass into our region for the weekend. This can also be seen in BUFKIT sounding profiles and plan view H500-700 lapse rate forecasts that suggest fairly steep 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8.5 deg c/km to be present across our forecast area. Why is this significant? The EML, in combination with the aforementioned weak frontal boundary hanging around our area, and steep mid-level lapse rates, will provide the potential for strong to severe convection. Don`t forget there also could be the potential for an MCS. In fact, a study done by Ekster and Banacos found that on severe weather days when an EML was present over 80 percent of those days contained numerous high end severe weather reports.