vortmax

Hoping to see some nighttime elevated convection with the passage of the warm front. KBUF doesn't seem too impressed. It will be very muggy tonight as a well established southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front advects in lower 70s dewpoints across our region. Temps will remain very warm with lows in the low to mid 70s, warmest Niagara Frontier to St. Lawrence River valley. Convection chances tonight are dependent on upstream trends. Not very confident in any one solution based on how models have performed since last night. In general the models were too far north and west with convection last night and are similar today. With that in mind and since warm front will be north of here allowing for ample elevated instability to settle across along with a low-level jet in place, made sure to have at least chance pops this evening over western NY and northern North Country, then blended this with going forecast chancy pops over from western NY to North Country later tonight. Better chances for storms tonight *likely* will remain just north of our area across southern Ontario and southern Quebec along advancing warm front and where stronger temp/moisture advection are present. It will be a nowcasting type of scenario though.

IMO, it's been the best Spring/Summer we've had in a long time.

White Christmas?

Take some pics of waterspouts!

Who thinks this will shift east a little later today?

Agreed. Not many extremes...either way.

Will be interesting to see how this verifies at the end of the day today.

Key word in those charts is "Outlook". Come on Brent, stop with the shenanigans please. This is a weather page in which we talk about past, present and future forecasts.

Pretty colors...lol

Yea, if we didn't get a lucky hit by a heavy cell with about .35" in a 15 min downpour, we'd be in the same boat.

The December timeframe must be related to the longwave patterns as the planet hits the solstice. What area does that graph cover or is it a single site?

Why couldn't that blip be in April?

We only got .06" easy of you. The line split around eastern Monroe cty. Interesting.

More popping east now along the outflow...

Something is happening...