More about the EML mentioned in KBUF's AFD (below), with case studies from the Eastern US. Could get interesting!
As was previously mentioned, the pattern developing is a textbook
for tongues of steep mid level lapse rates (EML plumes) to work from
the Plains and Upper Great Lakes into our region. One can see the
`birth` of the EML by looking at this mornings (12z Tues) classic
inverted V soundings from Albuquerque (KABQ) and El Paso (KEPZ).
HYSPLIT trajectory forecasts advect the mid and upper portions of
this airmass into our region for the weekend. This can also be seen
in BUFKIT sounding profiles and plan view H500-700 lapse rate
forecasts that suggest fairly steep 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to
8.5 deg c/km to be present across our forecast area. Why is this
significant? The EML, in combination with the aforementioned weak
frontal boundary hanging around our area, and steep mid-level lapse
rates, will provide the potential for strong to severe convection.
Don`t forget there also could be the potential for an MCS. In fact,
a study done by Ekster and Banacos found that on severe weather days
when an EML was present over 80 percent of those days contained
numerous high end severe weather reports.