Hoping to see some nighttime elevated convection with the passage of the warm front. KBUF doesn't seem too impressed.
It will be very muggy tonight as a well established southerly flow
ahead of an approaching cold front advects in lower 70s dewpoints
across our region. Temps will remain very warm with lows in the low
to mid 70s, warmest Niagara Frontier to St. Lawrence River valley.
Convection chances tonight are dependent on upstream trends.
Not very confident in any one solution based on how models have
performed since last night. In general the models were too far
north and west with convection last night and are similar today.
With that in mind and since warm front will be north of here
allowing for ample elevated instability to settle across along
with a low-level jet in place, made sure to have at least chance
pops this evening over western NY and northern North Country,
then blended this with going forecast chancy pops over from
western NY to North Country later tonight. Better chances for
storms tonight *likely* will remain just north of our area
across southern Ontario and southern Quebec along advancing warm
front and where stronger temp/moisture advection are present.
It will be a nowcasting type of scenario though.