BuffaloWeather

Idk euro looks like a pretty cold outbreak to me.

WNY had like 10 tornadoes this summer and at least 5 severe thunderstorm warnings. That’s unheard of around here when Lake Erie usually kills all convection.

It was the best severe weather year in my life I think.

What are your thoughts on Cohens theory of Siberian Snow cover affecting our winters? From my research it seems Canadian snow cover has a much larger impact on our winters than Siberia does. Any thoughts on this?

Way out there but that clipper at the end of the Euro would be a pretty big LES event if it was a month from now. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2017101712&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=400

Nice quite cold enough, but pretty cool look on EPS.

Next weekend are the first flakes for everyone.

Yeah, it was looking more like a Moderate La Nina, but the last few weeks have brought it up to a weak one which is good for us. I will be keeping an eye on the Alaskan death vortex in November though. If that gets going again, we are looking at another ratter winter.

In latest ENSO discussion it looks like once again a Weak La Nina is forecast. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

Does anyone have any data for this region for snowfall totals in relation to enso phases? I tried to find the coorelation for Buffalo. It seems any strong Nina/Nino leads to bad winters in terms of snowfall. Latest ENSO update from Friday. Looks like a weak Nina is favored for the 2nd straight year. Beware of Alaskan Vortex and Southeast Ridges in weak/mod Ninas. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

Friend of mine in Springville had a tree fall down in his front yard over power lines and he lost all power.

Had a region wide severe t-storm warning here today. Pretty decent gusts as the line moved through. A friend of mine had a tree fall in his yard and lost power since.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html We're going to have a positive PNA, but also a positive EPO which most likely as Stebo pointed out the cold shot will be transient.

Or better yet, don't even bother with operational models and stick with Ensembles and most importantly Teleconnections which IMO are by far the best predictors of pattern changes.

Yeah that was an intense storm. I'd say 50-55 mph were the max winds. So many leafs just blew off the trees.