BuffaloWeather

The 23rd is when we all said the pattern would start to flip.

46 and sunny here today, beautiful day.

We're in a bad pattern, but still finds a way to snow almost everyday. Pretty impressive.

Yeah, it's been full on winter here for almost the last month. 4-5" of wet snow on the ground and cold temps last few days. I'm all about snow falling (especially high rate LES), don't really care about the snowcover as much. Going to be at least another 2 weeks before our next LES event.

Not in the near term, but I think the 18th-22nd look quite warm on the EPS. Either way, If it's not going to snow, give me warm and sun.

Yeah every model shows something different. Starting tomorrow for the next week it will be around 40 and partly cloudy every day. Pretty boring weather for what is typically peak lake effect season off of Erie.

It will be an understatement to say that forecast confidence will be low during this period...as there is a very large variance in the solutions offered by the ECMWF and many of the GEFS ensembles. This presents a HUGE forecast problem for our region...as the two main lines of `thinking` include a prolonged period of `rainy` weather versus a rather short duration of nuisance pcpn. Have continued to shave back on pops from continuity...which is the solution that is more in line with the more trusted ECMWF. It would otherwise be futile to get into details of an otherwise complicated and wide ranging forecast...so will only add that there is the likelihood that our temperatures will average above normal. Stay tuned

I'm a big fan of the Mid-Atlantic Mid/Long range discussion, also the Tennessee has some good long range forecasters surprisingly. Isotherm, OhioWeather, OSU, and LakeEffectKing are my favorite.

I like snow and all but they take it to a new level over there in that forum. I can't imagine ever feeling like they do about snow. They all need to move to Northern Canada. We've had snow cover since Mid November with a few days of green. I just want a big LES event, last year around this time we had back to back big time events. The upcoming pattern is not good at all for snow. Pattern change has been consistent around Christmas week. I go there in a bad NE pattern for some laughter on the regular. Don't say anything though or they make fun of us because all we get is "fake snow".

Not a good look

December 13th to 22nd look 5-10 degrees above normal.

The next time frame for significant snows will be during Christmas week. MJO goes into a favorable cycle and we get some Pacific help. I actually like the look for W/SW LES events as the entrance of cold air is farther west than previous intrusions this year. Perfect timing for Christmas. Take this all as a grain of salt, as anything can happen in the next 15 days.

Yeah, the low pressure systems will have to create their own cold air because there is no mechanism to deliver any cold. However, climo Is starting to be in our favor.