BuffaloWeather

Many first freezes tonight.

Yeah, there is a big signal around Halloween with that blocking. Looks like a retrograde low. Still way to far out though.

Too many good signals this year. Watch it be a terrible winter to prove all the experts wrong.

Someone is getting snow in late October. Halloween surprise? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

We now have posters in all of the major LES areas throughout the great lakes. Looking forward to some awesome play by play during big events in here! Hopefully lots of pictures/videos, I'm feeling a big time event this year.

Could be, but I think November ends up above normal. Wish it was reversed.

I am going to Thailand, Indonesia, or New Zealand next year. Debating between those 3.

Speaking of lake temps, just came across this interesting tidbit from one of my all time favorite LES storms. Dec 9-12 1995. The BUFKIT and BUFKITE model profilers were excellent in timing of wind shifts and associated band movements ...but there was a slight problem on Lake Erie with the northward movement of the band on Sunday morning. Both models worked almost perfectly in forecasting veering winds during Saturday evening...with the NGM furthest south at about 265 ...but the NGM kept the winds at that angle for Sunday...while ETA was closer to 250. Actually, the bands moved north to a 240-245 vector for most of Sunday. This made all the difference in the world for Buffalo ...as a 10 mile shift brought the heaviest snow into the city rather than keeping it over the South Towns. This could be because of the Great Lakes thermal trough being stronger than the models indicated (because its early in the season) as coldest air worked "under" the Lakes rather than across them...forcing the flow more southwesterly at this end of the Lake than the models indicated. Long time Buffalo forecasters have suspected as much with early season Lake effects and subtract about 20 degrees from the forecasted winds...as the models don't pick up the warmth of the Lakes. This effect is not as noticeable on Lake Ontario but still occurs.

Yeah, it's tough to get any good LES until November and even then usually later in the month. It's not as important off Ontario as Erie. But the greater difference in temperature between the lake and the air aloft causes intense bands in early season events. If the water is cooler by the time the first few events happen the band is not as strong. You can look through this database, which shows all the LES events. There are lots in November. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive

One month too soon. The overall pattern will remain cold in the Great Lakes and New England over the next week to 10 days with a longwave trough position well established across eastern North America. There will be some day to day modulation, with a few brief warm-ups between fresh batches of cold air.

Record North American Snow Cover. Siberia snow cover extremely low. We will see what this winter brings in terms of temps.