BuffaloWeather

Every month this year has been above normal at Buffalo with an average departure per month of +4.4 degrees. That includes August which so far has been the "coldest" month of the year in relation to average with a 0.0 departure. That likely changes to a positive departure with the incoming warm spell.

A decent chunk of geography get it though, you really can't predict winters in LES areas at all. Hard to predict snowfall in winter in any of the highlighted blue locations.

01-02 was Buffalos 7th snowiest winter on record.

How much of an impact does the solar cycle have on actual weather here? 2013-2015 were the best back to back winters in my lifetime here and in the middle of a peak solar cycle.

I prefer Ninas here too. SE ridge and big blocking leads to the massive LES events we get here.

Agree but for every 1 colder than normal month we get 3-4 warmer than average.

Good bet that almost every month is warmer than average moving forward. I went back to look at the last 50 months at KBUF and only 11 out of 50 were below normal with 3 of them -0.1. You have over an 80% chance of guessing right if you guessed every month to be above normal moving forward.

New York set the record for most tornados in a year today with one going right through downtown Buffalo.

Such a fun week. That week alone made winter an A+. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2001-2002&event=B

BUF: 1940s: 47.9F 1950s: 48.6F 1960s: 47.1F 1970s: 47.5F 1980s: 48.1F 1990s: 48.7F 2000s: 48.6F 2010s: 49.4F 2020s: 51.2F (so far)

Thats because the site location changed in 1940 for Buffalo from right along the water to the Buffalo airport. All data that predates 1940 cannot be used.

How many winters have been below normal temps wise at Boston since 2000? Dec-Feb

Impossible to get dry winters in lake effect regions. If the lakes don't freeze which is commonplace now a days. I've definitely noticed less LES events due to AGW but the events have been pretty strong. 2022-23 winter we had an 80"+ event in November and the famous Buffalo Blizzard where 60" fell with hurricane force wind gusts. And then last winter had the big January LES event with 82" in 5 days.

Crazy tornadic outbreak across NYS today. Here is a video I did of the damage from a few tornadoes around my area.

Do we get cold winters anymore? I mean when was the last negative departure for a Dec-Feb? 2013-2014 I think here for Buf.