BuffaloWeather

You can't use Buffalos data before 1940 due to it being literally on the lake. It isn't a good representative of weather across our area, way too marine influenced. If Detroits recording station moved, that data shouldn't be used either. Not really up for debate, moving a recording station eliminates its accuracy and consistency.

The snowbelts off Erie and Ontario did very well. Had 175" in the southtowns of Buffalo. Crazy the difference between my home to airport. It's about a 20 minute drive from Hamburg to Buffalo airport and 100" difference in snow totals.

Just went over 175" on the year, another great winter for those impacted by lake effect snow. Places south of here are well over 200" and places in the tug are well over 300". Gaylord Michigan broke its all time snowfall record this year.

Some crazy conditions with the arctic front that moved through earlier this week

Recap video from the last event

What do you mean? Discord is a preferred method of communicating moving forward. You can post pictures and videos with a click, the formatting is better, and easier to instant message specific members. I asked many times if people wanted to transfer back over here and no one wanted to.

Check Dms just sent!

We all moved to discord, have about 110 members in here. I think I sent you an invite before.

I'm at 114" already this year. The best winter in 10 years. Snowman was so wrong.

Went out to Camden NY for this last lake effect event. Storm totals over 70"!

Buffalo NWS says we had a SSW 10-14 days ago? Their morning discussion. Looking further ahead into the start of 2025... A BIG change in our weather can be expected immediately after the New Year. The relatively low amplitude Pacific based flow that will have dominated the Lower 48 the past week or so with above normal temperatures will be replaced by a high amplitude, coupled +PNA/ -NAO pattern that will feature our first cross polar flow in at LEAST two years. Boiling this down, it simply means that there is HIGH confidence that our temperatures will plunge back to well BELOW normal, with the potential for this change to persist at least a week. The first signal of this dramatic change back to mid winter weather was a fairly significant stratospheric warming event that took place some 10 to 14 days ago. Sudden warming above 10mb usually results in a change in the arctic jet that translates into significant changes to the Arctic oscillation along with the corresponding North Atlantic oscillation. Within two to three weeks, this change in the high latitude flow will lead to an impressive surge of cold air that will make its way across eastern Canada and the northeastern portion of the Lower 48. Supporting this compelling change to mid winter conditions is agreement among many of the ensembles that anomalously strong ridging will be found along the West Coast (+PNA) while broad ridging will also build across Greenland and the North Atlantic (- NAO). This coupled pattern has a very high correlation to below normal temperatures throughout the Great Lakes region. The proverbial `icing on the cake` for this event is that many ensembles also suggest that a cross polar flow will develop. This will allow arctic air to settle southwards across eastern Canada where H85 temps in the -20s C will be common. Fortunately, the source region for the air in this event does is not especially cold at this time, or the event could be more noteworthy.

It’s been a wild string of luck. 85” on the year already. The new climate favors Lake Erie lake effect as the lake doesn’t really freeze anymore. We get slammed, it melts/warms up and get slammed again. It’s my favorite climo as I’m a big snowstorm guy myself.

A recap video I did of the event. 42" of snow fell in under 30 hours in the hardest hit areas, resulting in driving bans in some towns.

The thundersnow was insane in this last event!

Picked up 41" here and 85" on the year.

Some of the highest totals across the area from this last event ..ERIE COUNTY 4 NW EDEN 42.5 IN 1155 PM 12/12 PUBLIC ORCHARD PARK 38.0 IN 0600 AM 12/13 TRAINED SPOTTER EAST AURORA 1.0 ESE 37.0 IN 1100 PM 12/12 COCORAHS 5 NNW EDEN 34.8 IN 0745 AM 12/13 TRAINED SPOTTER ELMA CENTER 1.8 SE 34.7 IN 0700 AM 12/13 COCORAHS 3 SW ELMA 34.5 IN 0700 AM 12/13 COCORAHS WALES 34.0 IN 0700 AM 12/13 COOP EAST AURORA 2.7 SSE 33.7 IN 0700 AM 12/13 COCORAHS 2 NNW HAMBURG 33.0 IN 1215 AM 12/13 NWS EMPLOYEE 1 SW ORCHARD PARK 33.0 IN 1026 AM 12/13 NWS EMPLOYEE 1 NNE LACKAWANNA 32.0 IN 1200 AM 12/13 TRAINED SPOTTER 2 NW WEST FALLS 32.0 IN 1230 PM 12/13 TRAINED SPOTTER ELMA CENTER 31.5 IN 0500 PM 12/12 TRAINED SPOTTER EAST AURORA 0.1 ENE 31.0 IN 0700 AM 12/13 COCORAHS LAKE ERIE BEACH 30.0 IN 0200 PM 12/13 PUBLIC ..WYOMING COUNTY WARSAW 4W 28.5 IN 0700 AM 12/13 COOP ATTICA 27.0 IN 0730 PM 12/12 TRAINED SPOTTER ATTICA 7SW 26.9 IN 0600 AM 12/13 COOP ..JEFFERSON COUNTY 4 ENE LORRAINE 41.8 IN 0600 AM 12/13 PUBLIC 4 NW COPENHAGEN 25.3 IN 0815 AM 12/13 TRAINED SPOTTER ADAMS 24.0 IN 0600 AM 12/13 BROADCAST MEDIA ..LEWIS COUNTY BARNES CORNERS 33.0 IN 0844 AM 12/13 PUBLIC COPENHAGEN 28.0 IN 0100 PM 12/13 PUBLIC

I'm at 85" already on the year and in the east.

Got 41.2” storm total

Got this in 12 hours. Got a spare bedroom for fellow winter weather weenies.

Picked up 30" in the last 12 hrs, you guys all need to move to lake effect country with the warming climate.

We got destroyed overnight. 30" of new snow in the last 12 hrs

Tonight Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow after midnight. Low around 20. Breezy, with a west wind 22 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible. Thursday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow before 4pm. High near 22. Breezy, with a west wind 18 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches possible. Thursday Night Snow before 2am, then snow showers likely, mainly between 2am and 3am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 15. West wind 10 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Friday A chance of snow showers, mainly before 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 22. West wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... ...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... The pattern will briefly amplify across North America, with a strong ridge building over the Rockies and a strong, deep trough digging into the east. This trough will deliver a very cold airmass to the region, supporting strong instability over the lakes and another heavy lake effect snow event. Lake induced equilibrium levels will peak at around 15K feet Wednesday night and early Thursday as the coldest mid level air crosses the region, then steadily lower later Thursday through Friday as the cold airmass becomes more shallow with time. Prior to the start of lake effect snow, rain will still be in the process of changing to wet snow from west to east across the area Wednesday evening. Expect some minor, slushy non-lake effect accumulations across the higher terrain with this, and perhaps a slushy coating for lower elevations. Off Lake Erie... A band of lake effect snow will quickly develop late Wednesday afternoon or evening on the heels of the departing synoptic precipitation. Expect initial band development well south of Buffalo across the western Southern Tier and southern Erie County. The band will begin to strengthen in this area, then start to move northward through Erie County overnight. Both the GEM and HRRR suggest backing low level flow ahead of a shortwave moving through the base of the mid level trough will carry the band all the way north to near or over Buffalo and Batavia briefly late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning before settling back south a little towards central Erie County and the Wyoming/Genesee County border by mid morning Thursday. Latest guidance suggests the band may creep back north towards the immediate Buffalo Southtowns and possibly South Buffalo and some of the eastern suburbs for a time later Thursday through Thursday evening, before moving back south again Thursday night. The band will generally remain across Southern Erie County and the western Southern Tier from later Thursday night through Friday, where it will steadily weaken as inversion heights lower. The Lake Erie band should reach peak intensity later Wednesday night through Thursday, when snowfall rates may reach 2-3" per hour. Expect a weakening trend Thursday night and especially Friday. As far as storm totals go, expect 2-3 feet in the most persistent bands. The bullseye is most likely to be in southern Erie County, with 1-2 feet over western Chautauqua, far northwest Cattaraugus, and western Wyoming counties. The more immediate Buffalo Southtowns (that are located in the northern Erie zone) and southern Genesee County may see 10-20 inches if the band persists long enough that far north. This is another extremely close call for the City of Buffalo, with South Buffalo possibly accumulating 1 foot or more while North Buffalo has very little. Conditions seem supportive of strong inland penetration with this band, with moderate accumulations possibly extending into the western Finger Lakes. Also included an Advisory for Livingston County, with 4-7" possible in a narrow band across central or northern Livingston County. This could potentially extend into portions of Ontario County as well, but confidence is lower that far from the lake. Snow showers will occasionally peel off the eastern end of the band and make it all the way into Oswego County and the southern Tug Hill. Off Lake Ontario... Expect lake effect snow to develop later Wednesday evening as the synoptic precipitation is exiting. Initial lake enhanced upslope regime across the Tug Hill Plateau will evolve into a more pure lake effect band later Wednesday night, with the band of snow moving north towards Watertown and Fort Drum by Thursday morning. The band may not be particularly strong at first, with some shear still located in the boundary layer. The band should strengthen Thursday as boundary layer flow becomes better aligned. The band should spend most of Thursday over or near Watertown and central Jefferson County. Boundary layer flow will then veer more westerly Thursday evening, carrying the band a little south to center more on the northern and central Tug Hill region. The highest snowfall rates are likely to occur Thursday night, when the most favorable convergence is forecast over the lake, and when lake effect snow will begin to intersect terrain. Friday, lake effect snow should remain near the Oswego/Jefferson County border and extending inland across the Tug Hill Plateau. Inversion heights will steadily lower and the airmass will dry out, resulting in a weakening of the band later in the day, and will also force it to shrink back towards the lakeshore. The Lake Ontario band will likely reach peak intensity later Thursday through Thursday night or early Friday, when snowfall rates may reach 2-3" per hour. Expect a weakening trend later Friday as inversion heights lower. As far a storm totals go, expect 2-3 feet in the most persistent bands. The bullseye will most likely be found across the northern Tug Hill to just south and east of Watertown. This will be surrounded by a larger footprint of 1-2 feet of snow including Watertown and central Jefferson County, central and northern Lewis County, and far northern Oswego County. Finally, it will turn very windy later Wednesday night through Thursday evening. Winds may gust up to 40 mph at times, resulting in considerable blowing and drifting snow where lake effect snow occurs. Outside of lake effect areas, expect mainly dry weather and even some sunshine Thursday through Friday. It will be quite cold, with highs in the mid 20s for lower elevations and around 20 for higher terrain Thursday and Friday. Lows Thursday night will be in the teens, with wind chills in the single digits.

Another major lake effect snow event hits tomorrow into friday with 2-3 feet of snow and blizzard like conditions in the bands. * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations 2 to 3 feet in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will produce considerable blowing and drifting snow.