BuffaloWeather

The lakes are going to be going nuts. Record warm lake temps with the arctic air lasting about 2 weeks.

Cold reloads on all 3 ensembles

The pattern coming up looks incredible, so many wintry chances. The lakes are going to be firing the first week of December.

Euro is still the king based on recent data. Operational runs Ensembles

How have you done last 10 yrs? Above average?

Some of us have done well the last 10 yrs. I'm at 129.4" average the last 11 yrs, the average here is probably around 105-110".

It's coming, who's ready?

So we went from Moderate/Strong Nina that was predicted earlier this year to neutral Enso? That's quite the change!

Climate change is increasing exponentially. Obviously my statement was a hyperbole but not that far fetched of one as we move forward.

Bold call. Every winter is above normal in terms of temps now. You can predict that every winter for next 100 yrs and probably be 95% right.

It will snow this winter. I can promise you that.

We drove to Ohio for the eclipse as it was too cloudy in Buffalo. Had full sunshine down there for it at Sandusky. I had 125" of snow last year but only because we had a large lake effect event of 77" in 4 days. Otherwise a pretty warm/dry winter. The official recording station at the airport had 71", 2 feet below normal.

Just ran the numbers at Buffalo. The last negative month was Nov at -0.7. This November looks very torchy. Likely the warmest year on record for us here. Dec: +8.0 Jan: +3.9 Feb: +8.4 Mar: +6.7 Apr: +4.4 May: +5.8 Jun: +3.3 Jul: +2.5 Aug: +0.7 Sep: +4.5 Oct: +3.0

Do sunspots have any correlation to weather? The last solar maximum was 2014, our best winter in decades. The early 2000s was also an amazing stretch of winters

Looking good for lake effect locations, hints at -epo?

Does anyone know how much it deepened in 24 hrs? Set any records?

It’s doing this on October 7th…mind blowing stuff

Storm was nuts. We’ve had a few of those last 2 yrs.

Dam

The biggest benefitters have been those south of Buffalo including myself. We probably average 110" a year at my location. But here are my totals since keeping track down here. Averages out to 129.42" a year. I've had 2 75"+ events since 2022 and a once in a century blizzard with almost 60". The same cannot be said for other areas though. Rochester and Syracuse have had record low snowfall totals the last 6-7 yrs due to the lack of cold air and NW flow. All the flows have been WSW/SW with the cutter pattern we've had. 2013-14 snowfall: 161.7" 2018-19 snowfall: 122.8” 2023-24 snowfall: 125.1" 2014-15 snowfall: 212.8" 2019-20 snowfall: 83.3" 2015-16 snowfall: 80.1" 2020-21 snowfall: 101.1" 2016-17 snowfall: 93.3" 2021-22 snowfall: 105.4" 2017-18 snowfall: 152.4" 2022-23 snowfall: 185.6"

Over a week as a major Hurricane in the Atlantic. Has potential for highest ACE storm of the year. Beryl will be tough to beat.

dam

Every month this year has been above normal at Buffalo with an average departure per month of +4.4 degrees. That includes August which so far has been the "coldest" month of the year in relation to average with a 0.0 departure. That likely changes to a positive departure with the incoming warm spell.

A decent chunk of geography get it though, you really can't predict winters in LES areas at all. Hard to predict snowfall in winter in any of the highlighted blue locations.