BuffaloWeather

Bold call. Every winter is above normal in terms of temps now. You can predict that every winter for next 100 yrs and probably be 95% right.

It will snow this winter. I can promise you that.

We drove to Ohio for the eclipse as it was too cloudy in Buffalo. Had full sunshine down there for it at Sandusky. I had 125" of snow last year but only because we had a large lake effect event of 77" in 4 days. Otherwise a pretty warm/dry winter. The official recording station at the airport had 71", 2 feet below normal.

Just ran the numbers at Buffalo. The last negative month was Nov at -0.7. This November looks very torchy. Likely the warmest year on record for us here. Dec: +8.0 Jan: +3.9 Feb: +8.4 Mar: +6.7 Apr: +4.4 May: +5.8 Jun: +3.3 Jul: +2.5 Aug: +0.7 Sep: +4.5 Oct: +3.0

Do sunspots have any correlation to weather? The last solar maximum was 2014, our best winter in decades. The early 2000s was also an amazing stretch of winters

Looking good for lake effect locations, hints at -epo?

Does anyone know how much it deepened in 24 hrs? Set any records?

It’s doing this on October 7th…mind blowing stuff

Storm was nuts. We’ve had a few of those last 2 yrs.

Dam

The biggest benefitters have been those south of Buffalo including myself. We probably average 110" a year at my location. But here are my totals since keeping track down here. Averages out to 129.42" a year. I've had 2 75"+ events since 2022 and a once in a century blizzard with almost 60". The same cannot be said for other areas though. Rochester and Syracuse have had record low snowfall totals the last 6-7 yrs due to the lack of cold air and NW flow. All the flows have been WSW/SW with the cutter pattern we've had. 2013-14 snowfall: 161.7" 2018-19 snowfall: 122.8” 2023-24 snowfall: 125.1" 2014-15 snowfall: 212.8" 2019-20 snowfall: 83.3" 2015-16 snowfall: 80.1" 2020-21 snowfall: 101.1" 2016-17 snowfall: 93.3" 2021-22 snowfall: 105.4" 2017-18 snowfall: 152.4" 2022-23 snowfall: 185.6"

Over a week as a major Hurricane in the Atlantic. Has potential for highest ACE storm of the year. Beryl will be tough to beat.

dam

Every month this year has been above normal at Buffalo with an average departure per month of +4.4 degrees. That includes August which so far has been the "coldest" month of the year in relation to average with a 0.0 departure. That likely changes to a positive departure with the incoming warm spell.

A decent chunk of geography get it though, you really can't predict winters in LES areas at all. Hard to predict snowfall in winter in any of the highlighted blue locations.

01-02 was Buffalos 7th snowiest winter on record.

How much of an impact does the solar cycle have on actual weather here? 2013-2015 were the best back to back winters in my lifetime here and in the middle of a peak solar cycle.

I prefer Ninas here too. SE ridge and big blocking leads to the massive LES events we get here.

Agree but for every 1 colder than normal month we get 3-4 warmer than average.

Good bet that almost every month is warmer than average moving forward. I went back to look at the last 50 months at KBUF and only 11 out of 50 were below normal with 3 of them -0.1. You have over an 80% chance of guessing right if you guessed every month to be above normal moving forward.

New York set the record for most tornados in a year today with one going right through downtown Buffalo.

Such a fun week. That week alone made winter an A+. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2001-2002&event=B

BUF: 1940s: 47.9F 1950s: 48.6F 1960s: 47.1F 1970s: 47.5F 1980s: 48.1F 1990s: 48.7F 2000s: 48.6F 2010s: 49.4F 2020s: 51.2F (so far)

Thats because the site location changed in 1940 for Buffalo from right along the water to the Buffalo airport. All data that predates 1940 cannot be used.