BuffaloWeather

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of more than a foot possible in the most persistent lake snows. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph Saturday and Saturday evening, with somewhat lower winds then expected through the bulk of the lake effect snow event.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ...Powerful Storm WIll Impact the Region This Weekend with VERY STRONG Winds and SIGNIFICANT Lake Effect Snows... An anomalously strong (around 974 mb) surface low will be in the midst of passing northwest of the area Saturday. It`s associated occluded front will lie across the Genesee Valley early Saturday morning and finish its eastward path into New England throughout the rest of the morning and into the afternoon. In the wake of the frontal passage, the coldest airmass of the season will begin to pour into the region Saturday morning, transitioning the rain to snow across the western Southern Tier. Additionally, winds will shift from southeasterly to southwesterly behind the front and support widespread wind gusts up to 65 mph through the corridor from Buffalo to Rochester and 50 to 60 mph gusts likely elsewhere across WNY. Temperatures will continue to drop throughout the day Saturday, first across WNY followed by the Genesee Valley and north central NY as the front and cold air advection makes its way eastward. By Saturday evening, most of western and north central NY will see temperatures near or just below freezing. As the synoptic moisture lifts off to the northeast Saturday afternoon, heavy lake effect snow will begin to intensify downwind of the lakes as the bitter cold air spills across the region. Heading into Saturday night through Sunday night, plenty of lingering synoptic moisture and a saturated DGZ will support lake effect snows to ramp up east of Lakes Erie and Ontario. While the exact location of the band set up still remains questionable, there a fair amount of confidence that the band will not have a long residency time across on area for a long period of time. This being said, the band will wander across the areas east of Lake Ontario supporting some time where the band will lie across both the Buffalo and Watertown metros at some point this weekend. Additionally, there remains good confidence that with the heavy lake effect snow combined with a continuation of strong winds will result in considerable blowing and drifting snow, creating considerable impacts for the areas east of both Lakes Erie and Ontario. Travel in lake effect bands will be extremely difficult, to impossible at times. Did not upgrade the Winter Storm Watch due to uncertainty in wind direction and the location of lake snow bands, but it remains in effect from Saturday afternoon through Monday morning. It will become much colder with lows in the mid teen to lower 20s Saturday night, highs Sunday in the upper teens across the higher terrain and low to mid 20s elsewhere and lows Sunday night in the upper single digits across the higher terrain and low to mid teens elsewhere. These colder temperatures combined with the winds will support wind chill values to primarily range in the single digits with a few low teens across the northern Finger Lakes. By Monday, a deep cut off low over southern Hudson Bay will slowly weaken and retrograde west back into northern Ontario. Overall this will support cold cyclonic flow to continue to filter across the region and support the lake effect snow to persist east of both lakes Monday. Similar to the weekend, temperatures will continue to be cold with highs ranging in the upper teens to low 20s.

Figured I'd start a thread here, as everyone left for our discord but some still post here. If anyone wants an invite to it, please PM me. I'll be at the game Sunday!

We left due to the moderators here. We’re more active than ever on discord. About 1000 posts just today. The interface and accessibility is 100 times better than forums are. If anyone wants an invite, feel free to PM me. I don’t think there is anyone that wants to move back here that moved to discord. If you don’t want to join, you guys are more than welcome to continue discussing here.

The 1970s were a very snowy decade almost everywhere. Once that data is excluded the regression isn't as bad.

This map doesn't seem to be correct. All 3 of Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse averages went up when in latest 30 yr averages. The old averages were 1981-2010 with the new being 1991-2020 https://www.weather.gov/buf/newnormals New 30 Year Climate Normals (1991 - 2020) Buffalo: 94.7" to 95.4" Rochester: 99.5" to 102" Syracuse: 123.8" to 127.8" With this being said Rochester and Syracuse have had some of the worst winters in their history the last few years and when the new 30 yr climo norms come out they likely decrease quite a bit. Buffalo has had 2 consecutive above average snowfall yrs. I contribute that to mainly luck as we are a big snowfall climo with lake effect snow events. Some interesting data below

Video of last lake effect event. FInished with 17.3" here, 2 feet south of here over the hilltops, and over 3' on the tughill. Pretty solid first major event of the season, up to 22.2" on the year so far.

Year anniversary coming up in a few days. Little thundersnow video I did of this event.

As winter season picks up just want everyone to know here that we have migrated over to discord. If you would like an invite, please send me a PM. We're almost at 100 people that joined and over 10 being meteorologists. Anyone in the great lakes, ontario, and upstate new york are welcomed. Lots of lake effect discussion to be had with posters living all over the main snow belts in New York.

A warm winter is likely every season in this new climo. Buffalos last below average dec-feb time period was 2013-2014, a decade ago. https://www.weather.gov/buf/BUF_top10

There isn't much to experience. It's usually warm and dry. Not sure why you would be frightened by it.

Makes sense but those maps are pretty terrible as quite a few counties had above average snowfall across WNY.

Where do you get these maps from? Buffalo had a top 5 snowfall year and according to your map we didn't. I had 185" here with annual around 120" and it shows me 50% of normal last winter.

We’ve discussed on our discord about the urban heating effect at Buffalo. Check out some of the overnight lows in summer this year and see if you see anything fishy. Love this kind of data

This data is flawed. 5 yrs isn’t nearly enough data to justify a conclusion. It’s clearly colder along lakeshore than at airport.

A degree is a massive difference in that timeframe

When was the last day 2 10% hatched tornado probs in michigan/ohio/indiana?

Should be good to go for chasing Wednesday. Was thinking of driving to around Toledo and awaiting rogue cells that form ahead of cf. Can go north or south based on what forms. Would anyone pick a different starting location?

Any chance this rolls over into weds?

Why do people get so close?

I think I might be able to chase Weds if anyone here wants to meet up.

Will this extend into Indiana and Ohio on Wednesday? Was thinking of taking a PTO day and heading out chasing if it does.

Many of these recording stations were different back then. Buffalos was right on the lakeshore before 1940 and much cooler than the location it is now (airport) Rochester and Syracuse changed locations too. Not sure about Erie. Any data pre 1940 needs to be tossed at least for Buffalo, not sure when ROC and SYR moved.

I guess it’s how you judge a severe winter. This winter had 2 severe storms which imo have a bigger impact then Snow cover. Not to mention loss of life. 6” on the ground all winter with temps in the 20s isn’t “severe” by any stretch. Imo this is a rather dumb rating system. The Buffalo Christmas blizzard will likely go down as worst winter weather. Conditions east of the Rockies ever…39 straight hours of blizzard conditions with single digit temps. Wind gusts of 79 mph and 50”+ of snow. Drifts were 20’+. The only place you see that type of weather is in the mountains.

51 people died in Buffalo this winter due to the storms and its rated as moderate. 17 were literally found frozen to death outside during the Christmas Blizzard.