BuffaloWeather

ALL LANES ARE BLOCKED ON BOTH DIRECTIONS ON I-90 BETWEEN EXITS 57 to 57A DUE TO DOWNED HIGH TENSION POWER LINES This storm is gonna be insane.

They evacuated those. I’ll be there tomorrow though.

Everything is closing until Tuesday except necessities

70 mph wind gusts, 3-4’ of snow, temps in teens, 24 foot waves. Does it even get any better? I’ll be live streaming along the shore all day tomorrow. Follow my YouTube in my signature.

I’d say all of Erie county at this point. The moisture for the first 24 hours makes this basically a lake enhanced event versus pure lake effect snow.

lol

Will likely be pretty dead in here as everyone migrated to discord, have 65 members in the channel. If any lurkers in here from upstate send me PM for invite. Should be a fun couple of days! My work has already closed, so 4 day weekend to enjoy it!

Worst storm I’ve ever seen modeled for Buffalo. 70 mph winds and 3-4’ of snow.

Friday Rain before 8am, then snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow after 10am. Temperature falling to around 11 by 3pm. Wind chill values as low as -15. Very windy, with a southwest wind 13 to 23 mph increasing to 31 to 41 mph. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. Low around 13. Wind chill values as low as -10. Very windy, with a southwest wind 39 to 44 mph, with gusts as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Saturday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. High near 18. Windy, with a southwest wind 32 to 36 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Saturday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. Low around 15. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Christmas Day Snow. High near 22. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Sunday Night Snow showers likely, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Monday A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

GFS GEM

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ...A DANGEROUS WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE CHRISTMAS WEEKEND... True blizzard conditions are rare in Western NY, and it`s unusual to even consider blizzard headlines this far in advance of a storm. However, the magnitude of this storm justifies this consideration. The worst conditions will be downwind of the lakes, particularly Lake Erie where the southwest winds will be the strongest. Expect the combination of lake effect snow and very strong winds to produce Blizzard conditions across the Niagara Frontier starting Friday afternoon and lasting into Saturday night. Confidence is a bit lower, but near blizzard conditions are also possible in Jefferson County, and counties adjacent to the Blizzard Warning. A trough will dig across the Mississippi Valley, becoming negatively tilted with an intense surface low developing across Southern Ontario province on Friday. Surface pressure drops rapidly (about 20 mb in only 12 hours) to around 970mb, with the 00Z GFS/ECMWF intensifying the low to around 963mb. The low will pivot across southern Quebec as it becomes vertically stacked Friday night and Saturday. A strong cold front will move across the region Friday as this low rapidly intensifies. Daybreak Friday, a sharp Arctic front tied to the deepening low over the central Great Lakes will be entering far western NY. The front will quickly make it to eastern Lake Ontario region by early afternoon. Along the front, expect an abrupt change from rain to snow with intensity increased due to frontogenesis along the front. An inch or two of snow could occur then conditions will worsen as temps free fall into the teens by afternoon and single digits west and teens east by nightfall. Expect a rapid freeze of the snow and any slush, leading to icy conditions. Strong gusty winds will also arrive with the front, with cold air advection allowing winds aloft to readily mix to the surface. Expect wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph near Lake Erie, from the Niagara Frontier to Monroe county, to Jefferson County with gusts to 50 mph inland Friday and Friday night. It`s important to note that multiple hazards are addressed in the WSW product, including the strong winds and dangerously cold wind chills. In addition to upgrading the remaining watches to a Winter Storm Warning, also issued a winter weather advisory for the snow and flash freeze in addition to the wind related hazards. Blowing snow will quickly become an issue, due to the strong winds and very dry snow. Moving into Friday night through Saturday morning, this is when the worst conditions in terms of a combined hazard from heavy snow, blowing snow, and localized blizzard conditions will occur. Travel will be very difficult, but more likely impossible where the heaviest snow and strongest winds are occurring concurrently. Winds will be very strong on Friday night in the mixed layer that are even shown to exceed 70 kts at times. This is the period when wind damage will potentially be the highest and power outages could become widespread. This is a real concern especially with the cold temps expected for the holiday weekend. A note about the coverage of snow Friday night into Saturday morning. Given such strong winds, do not anticipate a classic narrower plume of heavy lake enhanced snow for this time frame. Instead a more widespread footprint to the moderate to heavy snow is more likely as the strong winds will spray the heaviest snow around and cause locations of heaviest snow to vary based on where localized convergence occurs which will be hard to tell given such strong winds. That and lower SLRs due to such strong winds (dendrites will be shattered to pieces leaving a more fine snow type) is not good news though as even where snow is not heavy, there will be a more widespread impact with blowing, drifting snow leading to whiteout conditions. Although storm totals will be significantly more, expect amounts in the 6 to 12 inch range across the Niagara Frontier through daybreak Saturday, although this will be more than enough to result in significant issues. A very tight surface pressure gradient will remain in place across our forecast area on the day before Christmas, so while the winds should diminish as bit by way of a weaker LLJ especially later in the day, they will still be strong enough to possibly cause issues and certainly to support continued at least areas of blowing snow. The more efficient (fluffy) snowfall is expected Saturday through Sunday. Winds will continue to gradually diminish through Sunday, with the impacts of blowing snow also diminishing. Because blowing snow impacts will diminish the Blizzard Warning is set to expire Sunday morning, but there still will be lake effect snow and other impacts lasting through Sunday and into Sunday night off Lake Erie There is still some uncertainty in band location, with the NAM (and related high res guidance) a bit more southerly in its wind direction than GFS/RGEM/ECMWF guidance. Favoring the latter guidance due to a more realistic evolution of the surface low. In general expected lake snows off Lake Erie to shift southward on Sunday. Lake snows will continue into Sunday night, with the Lake Erie band shifting back north and weakening late in the night. Storm total snow amounts will be almost entirely from lake effect snow, with 1 to 3 feet of snow expected northeast of Lake Erie and Ontario. Amounts will drop off dramatically outside of the band, although lake snow will carry quite far inland due to the strong winds, with some upslope enhancement across higher terrain. It will be quite cold with Saturdays highs ranging from the single digits over the Srn Tier to the teens and low 20s elsewhere resulting wind chills falling to as low as 10 to 25 degrees below zero. Again, this is why any power outages that last for longer period of time could have bigger impact. Christmas Day will remain cold with highs only in the teens to low 20s and winds to 30 mph generating wind chills of 10 below to just a few degrees abv zero. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Lake effect snow will be ongoing off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Monday morning. Lake band orientation probably not too different than Sunday and Sunday night, with the bulk of the lake snow near and just south of the Buffalo and Watertown areas. Intensity of the lake bands a bit uncertain with increasing shear as surface ridging sliding to our south starts to build in. Environment becoming increasingly less favorable for lake effect Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure to our south slides to the east allowing a warmer return flow to set up. This will bring an end to our lake effect snow, with less frigid conditions expected by mid week.

Are there anymore warnings that could be issued?

WRF

RGEM

Our biggest LES events come early in the season before the lake freezes. Our end of the lake takes the longest to freeze as its the deepest. On average it freezes by 3rd week of January, but with the recent warm winters it rarely completely freezes over now. In terms of this season being rare, I don't think we have anything on record like it. We've had an 80" event, a 22" event, and now this one which could be the worst yet.

91" on 3km with it snowing for another 30 hours after this. Once in generation storm coming...

Insane…

RGEM goes nuts with over 4" of QPF and still snows for another day after this run ends

I can't believe I have another forecast like this Friday Rain before 9am, then snow. High near 41. Wind chill values as low as -10. Windy, with a southwest wind 17 to 27 mph increasing to 27 to 37 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. Low around 11. Very windy, with a southwest wind 38 to 41 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. High near 16. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. Low around 14. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Christmas Day Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. High near 18. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Sunday Night Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday Snow showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 23. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Through Sunday morning. It snows until Tuesday morning.

Lakeshore flood warnings issued ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Significant lakeshore flooding expected. The lake level at Buffalo may exceed 11 feet above low water datum which would be more than 3 feet above flood stage. * WHERE...Niagara, Erie, and Chautauqua counties. * WHEN...From 7 AM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...The rapid rise in water levels will result in SIGNIFICANT lakeshore flooding along the Lake Erie and Upper Niagara River shores. Along the Lake Erie shore, flooding is likely along Route 5 in Hamburg, Buffalo Harbor, Canalside, Buffalo Riverworks, Dunkirk Harbor, Hoover Beach in Hamburg, Old First ward in South Buffalo, and other flood prone locations. Along the Upper Niagara River, flooding is likely to affect Grand Island, Cayuga Island, and beneath the North Grand Island bridge at the Lasalle Expressway ramps. Very high wave action will also result in significant shoreline erosion.