I agree with this. But the lake has stopped fully freezing over the last few years. What we see is the up and down pattern where we will get arctic air for a few days and then it warms up quick which slows down the freezing process. We are going to see that this weekend with temps in the 50s which will allow more opportunity for LES events further into the winter season. There is not enough data as far as I can tell to prove that hypothesis. For instance, Buffalo had a major LES event in February last year, which would rarely occur in a normal winter due to it being frozen by then historically speaking. Buffalo is getting LES events well into February that otherwise rarely occurred if looking at historical data. Are they happening enough to make it a pattern not a coincidence, I'm not sure about that yet. A few events from last year in February.
https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2020-2021&event=F
https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2020-2021&event=I