mimillman
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About mimillman
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I think it has to do with that upper level low in the Gulf of Alaska honestly. It shunts the ridge out west pretty significantly and prevents the southern wave from digging enough.
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This. But a somber start to the 00z suite. I still think all the ingredients are there, but expectations are definitely tempering.
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Center of low pressure has to be a solid 200 miles south from the 18z
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GFS south and weaker from 18z At 500mb the set up is a lot more similar to the 12z with the upper level ridge out west shunted east and the PV oriented more towards the east. The effect looks to make everything more progressive.
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Welcome, and may we both do well in our great city. Nothing like a good 84 hour NAM map to kick off the 00z suite.
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Pretty close look to the 6z
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Euro ensembles more amped. Widespread 10”+. There must be some nutso members
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Still a very solid hit for most of the sub forum, especially eastern areas. Just not as widespread as 00z. Would take and run
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Also that vorticity in the Gulf of Alaska is shunting the upper level ridge on the west coast. Grrrr A number of issues on this run I think will cause the SLP to be southeast of the 00z. Maybe models ingested some new info?
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One thing I’ve noticed is that the trend today has been to bring the leading wave further south, which may be the issue here. Euro showing the same signs.
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Fv3 did quite well with the previous system
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Yea that’s pretty awful
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Madison
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Watch the Euro come in as a MSN special :p
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If the ensembles shift south, I think we can safely say the trend is not our friend.
