Stevo6899

GFS and euro both have something around the 10th but but models have been showing a decent storm in this range for a couple weeks to only have them vanish.

It is pretty neat to see it plastered to everything.

Lansing to Ann Arbor have been in the banding all day. I wouldn't be surprised if those areas see 4 to 5". Dry air has been eating away at the precip all day here on the east side. Maybe an inch has accumulated.

Obviously we have different criteria to what accounts for a good winter. You're okay with settling with northwest flow and garbage clippers like the current pattern, meanwhile I'd rather roll the dice and get the southern stream and gulf open for business. I'll take warm and potentially wet over dry, high ratio 2-4 inchers. Most models have something in the dec 4-6 timeframe. The key will be to have a somewhat strong clipper drop down to push the jet stream further south so the next storm in line can dig south a bit. The gfs does this, while the euro keeps the clippers weaker, making the next big storm most likely a rainer for most of the midwest.

Gross.

GFS has a decent clipper for the lower lakes late weekend. High ratio fluff. The usual weak until it blossoms along the east coast. It always amazes me when energy can look so weak around the lakes, then boom turns into a respectable storm for the coast.

I'm remembering the mid February storm, temps were pretty cold, like in the upper teens? The ratios def saved it from being a total dud Not one model had the dry slot getting this far north, but somehow Detroit always finds a way to get into it. Either way it's been a pretty dull Winter the past 3 years so hopefully we can get things going in here soon. It's a bummer because we've had some decent colder around here lately but no storms. Hopefully yall don't mind us cluttering up this thread a bit. Not a whole lot going on really anywhere snowwise.

Yea that storm. Wow i thought the dry slot snuck into toledo too. Good to see toledo jackpotted for once.

Toledo had 14 on the ground after last yrs mid feb quick hitter?

I wasn't here for the feb 15 storm but i remember it as one storm that only lasted 4-6 hours and most places saw a high ratio 4-5 for the main show. Snow that happened the previous day shouldn't count towards the main show imo. Im not heading south to florida for the winter until jan 1st so here to hoping for a front loaded winter.

Ill take that track anyday. If you want a big snows, you got to smell the rain. That feb storm last year was a fast mover and I think only like 4-5 fell in most areas, high ratio fluffer. Models were hyping it bigger than it ended up being. I think the only event last year that dropped more than 3".

Northwest flow and clipper patterns don't do it for me so I guess now's a good time to be in that now and get it out of the way, and hopefully it doesnt return this winter. A decent warm up looks to be on the horizon soon. We need one powerhouse low pressure system to track north of us and push the jet stream further south so we can get some low pressure systems to come out of the 4 corners, or the gulf. I am itching and craving for a snowstorm. It's been what seems like 3 years since we've seen a decent snowstorm here in Detroit. The early november surprise storm in november 2019 is only one that comes to mind.

Decent returns over SE MI. First flakes of the season is steady snow, and not the usual mood flakes. Perhaps a sign of things to come this winter...

Thus has been the theme the past few winters, "sheared out as it heads east".

I wasn't here but I think most of the snow that was on the ground in February was High ratio/low qpf water content. Add that it all melted with no additional rain. I didn't see my 1st rain drop until 29 days after I got home March 1st, so it's not all that hard to believe that this area is in a drought. Days like today are my favorite. Mid 80's, low humidity.