gallopinggertie

Hong Kong recently broke its all-time high, during Typhoon Dolphin. Here is an excerpt from an environmental newsletter I receive, describing the day: “ Dear Reader, On Sunday, August 9th, the Hong Kong Observatory recorded a temperature of 36.9 C (98.4 F), the highest since records began in 1884. I’ve often told my friends stateside to imagine Hong Kong’s normal summer climate as “Houston on steroids.” This past Sunday was something else: I was breaking into a sweat just standing in the shade waiting for the bus. There was no breeze, and you could feel the heat radiating into your body, as if you stepped into a sauna. In fact, the “feels like” temperature reached 46 C (114.8 F) — hotter than Houston, Miami, or Phoenix.”

Right, as it’s currently forecast it looks like just a moderate impact to Hawaii, probably similar to Iselle which hit the Big Island around 10 years ago as a 60 mph tropical storm and caused significant damage to the papaya crop. Per the NHC forecast this one could surpass Iselle by a bit, in which case it could become the strongest tropical cyclone to make landfall on the Big Island (or any of the islands other than Kauai). It looks to be moving through the islands at a good clip which hopefully cuts down on flooding.

Current SST anomalies and contour chart. The western Mediterranean Sea is 5C above normal, with temperatures over 30C south of Sicily! Even the Black Sea is pushing into the range of temps warm enough to support tropical cyclones.

Bozeman also seems to have set a new all-time high today of at least 106 (previous record was 105).

Wow, Miles City got up to at least 115 today and Billings 111. Both all-time highs by a margin of 3-4 degrees.

Some stations in eastern Montana could break their all-time highs today. Miles City is already up to 100 at 11 am.

JTWC is forecasting tropical storm Bavi to pass directly over Saipan and Tinian in a few days as a 160 mph typhoon. I really hope the track changes. Typhoon Sinlaku just caused over $1.5 billion in damage to Saipan and other islands in April.

Yesterday’s thunderstorm chances were a bust in most of the Willamette Valley. This was really been the most boring past year of weather I can remember. No snow or ice, no windstorms, hardly any lightning…

I was in London on Saturday, and it was hot and humid (also it seemed like the entire city was outside enjoying the sunshine). One of the metro lines was stifling hot even with air con. Crazy that it got up to 95 there! The southern UK is predicted by many climate simulations to have a hot-summer Mediterranean climate by 2100.

Today was the earliest ever 91-degree high at PDX (Portland, OR). This beats the previous record by three days. Pretty odd to have a heat advisory on May 3rd.

Seattle had a good thunderstorm a few days ago with hail and even a waterspout! But nothing in Portland besides a tiny bit of hail. The weather here has been preternaturally boring over pretty much the entire past year.

Wikipedia has the following up on Sinlaku’s article, based on sources like the Red Cross. It sounds bad. ” Sinlaku caused catastrophic destruction across the Northern Mariana Islands, particularly on Saipan and Tinian. With sustained winds reaching 150 mph (240 km/h), the storm demolished numerous wooden and tin-roofed homes and caused significant roof failures in commercial buildings.[36] The entire electrical grid on both islands collapsed, and toppled communication towers left residents without mobile or internet services for an extended period.[37] The storm's slow movement across the archipelago resulted in intense rainfall—exceeding 20 inches (51 cm) in some areas—and severe flash flooding.[38] In residential districts, winds were powerful enough to flip vehicles and stack them on top of one another, while many concrete homes suffered from water seepage through every crevice. Critical facilities, including Northern Marianas College, faced fresh setbacks as buildings still being repaired from previous storms were battered again.[39]”

The extreme wind warning had to keep getting renewed over Saipan and Tinian as the giant eyewall slowly made its way across the islands. So while Sinlaku was weaker than Yutu, it was still plenty strong (cat 4 equivalent) and a very long-duration wind event.

Sinlaku is now forecast to pass directly over Saipan and Tinian. Really hope it misses, as those islands have already had bad hits from typhoons (like Yutu) in recent years.