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Found 16 results

  1. It has been a somewhat slow Western Pacific Typhoon Season so far this year. The season started late in July, only four or five (depending on your choice in agency) typhoons have been observed so far, and ACE still remains a fair bit below 100*10^4 kt^2. Things may be changing though, especially with La Nina struggling to develop. At the time of this original post, Tropical Storm Meranti has just developed, and it may go on to be a very powerful typhoon. WV loop above will continue to update and stay current. (Edit: or not)
  2. Early, I know, so if it's out of line Mods feel free to nuke the thread. A new wave has rolled off the African coast, and all the major operational guidance has development in the next few days. More impressive, the GEFS and EPS are bullish on the wave and its long term development chances. Way too early to say what happens with the track, but the NHC has already labeled it an invest despite the low odds given for development in the next 2-5 days. First critical thing I'll be looking at--SAL. It has been harassing anything in the MDR all season. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Eight, located a few hundred miles north-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas. 1. A tropical wave that has emerged off the west coast of Africa is forecast to move westward over the next couple of days and merge with a broad area of low pressure located southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of the system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the open tropical eastern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. Forecaster Roberts
  3. Models are not crazy about the tropics right now but we have two areas of interest growing in the Tropical Atlantic as I write this blog. First area of concern is close to home, in what we call a homegrown threat, an area of thunderstorms grew into an area of low pressure earlier this afternoon and is growing with thunderstorm activity. It developed from a leftover frontal boundary currently racing off to the Northeast over the western Atlantic Ocean. TS Emily grew from the same front yesterday and is now quickly diminishing in a midst of a shear and dry air. Just as I thought from yesterday this area needed to be monitored as the area of frontal shear caused by a front in the GOM appears to be lessening now and is near 10-20 knots instead of 30-40 knots yesterday. This shear should continue to drop according to the 18z GFS run yesterday afternoon. This small area of low pressure is already well defined on satellite imagery this evening and appears to be gaining convection. Depending upon if the convection is consistent and persistent will determine the tropical outlook on this system. Next system of interest is a tropical wave currently in the MDR battling dry air to the north of it and the ITCZ influence to the south of it. Shear is light to moderate, not enough to stop development, should become an invest tomorrow morning. Stay tuned this system could become a threat to the lesser Antilles islands in the mid term.
  4. Meteorological summer is upon us and already looking at a hot weekend coming up as well as the third tropical storm of the year!
  5. Posted this in the general thread as well... but given this maybe the most eventful weather we've seen since the blizzard I thought it deserved a dedicated thread. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The latest runs want us in the game... and they seem to have some consensus.
  6. Within the next ten to fourteen days the models are pointing towards two tropical cyclones potentially impacting the East Coast of the US. Models differ on development at this time, but there is enough support from the CMC and EURO and GFS to suggest that development is possible southeast of the current 91L disturbance track sometime around Wednesday or Thursday of next week. Stay tuned!
  7. I recently wrote an article on the implications of a category 6 rank being added to the hurican scale. I wanted to get more input, however. Please vote on my poll and leave any comments here or on the website. http://weather.st/blog/category-6-hurricane-the-argument-is-real/
  8. I personally think November 2015 will be warmer than average, CFS has strongly been trending warmer than average since August. The CanSIPS model has also been trending warmer than average. Precipitation forecasts from CanSIPs and CFS also analyze above average. Now the Jamstec model is a bit different. It predicts a warmer than average November for areas east of the MS river excluding IL,WI, and MN. But it then predicts a cooler than average November for areas west of the MS river, east of the Rockies. That is the September run and the October run should come in in a couple of days. I do think our "Second Tornado Season", could be good. The last El Nino analogs I found have had Late Fall-Early Winter tornado outbreaks. This next list of outbreaks all happened in El Nino conditions in November. November 22-24, 2004, 2002 Veteran's Day Outbreak, 1987 Arklatex tornado outbreak, and so on.
  9. Both DVDs for $10 shipped (via US Postal Priority Mail). These are some of the best Hurricane DVDs you can get. Add $2 for the Director's Cut edition of the Hurricane Charley which adds non-bleeped language, more DVD options, include the full uncut Jim Edds' footage of the sign as it is being demolished (which you only get a few seconds of on most TV shows) and the full radar animation of the hurricane making landfall. Great Gift (stocking stuffer) $10 for the 2 DVD set $12 for the 2 DVD set upgrade to Charley Director's Cut You can buy with a credit card, paypal: I also will accept Money Orders from the US Post Office, but PM me first.
  10. I am thinking like this , think back to 91, increase the wind speeds, increase the seas, fetch, surge, rainfall and power issues. Duration should be less or near. If we get any clearing we will max out potential in mixing, that is the scary part. Also folks inland like several have mentioned could be saying ah typical noreaster as the wind screams at 85 knots 1k off the ground
  11. I know many are already posting in the main thread, but I figured it might be good for the few folks that are chasing to have a specific thread to drop info into. This is for the tropical side, I believe there is a snow chase thread already. Partly doing this for myself so I can quick post stuff while mobile without having to wait for the main thread to load (it takes a long time on the iPad while mobile). Plans for me: At the moment I'm prepping at home. I likely will head out tomorrow around Mid-day and head for the Wilmington area. From there I can decide on the north side or south side of Delaware Bay. I probably won't venture much further north and Cape May New Jersey regardless of the storms position if further north. And southern paths will be for direct eyewall intercept (if it exists). I suspect that access to the barrier islands will be 10x more difficult than in the south. Departments here are way more heavily staffed and the jog across state lines in itself can make it difficult. I'll try to update this thread, but also catch my posts: http://www.twitter.com/stormitecture http://www.facebook.com/stormitecture http://www.stormitecture.com
  12. Was thinking that with the absence of the Conferences for the foreseeable future, should (and can) American Weather put on it's own classes for folks interested in weather who want to learn more and like the class room environment. This could be done somewhat like the Skywarn classes, but not a Skywarn class in itself (not that would be out of the question either). It would mostly be a general interest, education, weenism kinda of deal and one that would be small scale and could be held in different areas. Of course it would probably be eastern US heavy as the membership is heavily based there, but could expand into other areas. I could see both members and invitees to teach/hold the small classes. I suspect fees would have to be charged to cover space and materials. Unlike the Skywarn classes, this would be based for the general public to learn, but not necessarily to teach reporting of weather conditions. It also would be a means for some of the members to meet in smaller social meet-ups. Just thinking off the top of my head. Discuss!
  13. Hi gang! I searched the forums and didn't find anything listed about this, so here I am. I just found out about this special website developed by the Mid Atlantic River Forecast Center in State College, PA, during this past spring. They did this leading up to the 40th anniversary of Agnes and its massive flooding. As I recall, the flooding went all the way into Toronto. Had a weather friend from there that recalled this vividly. Enjoy! http://www.erh.noaa....lood/agnes.html --Turtle
  14. We've been going through my grandfather's slides and getting them digitally scanned. We came across some cool Hurricane Carol photos from Duxbury Ma. Many of the locations where the pictures are, are now mulit-million dollar houses. I'm thinking the damage would be much worse now. My grandfather owned 10 acres on Saquish beach and sold them after carol. You can see the breach picture of how close Duxbury beach came to be wiped out of existence. My grandfather promptly sold his acreage on Saquish beach for pennies on the dollar. The current going rate on Saquish beach is $1million per acre. Thanks Grampy. I also included a couple of winter photos so you can see just what a real winter looks like. We think this a ship that grounded on Duxbury beach and they're attempting to remove crewmembers. Duxbury beach nearly gone. Finally some winter pictures of what a real winter looks like