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About this blog

A few massive snowstorms have gained the respectability that every storm wants to gain.  The last few blizzards to strike the SNE region have not lived up to their predecessors.  The Blizzard of 2005 and 2015 are two storms that come to mind that blow everyone away when it comes to wind gusts and snowfall amounts in Harwich, MA.  When it comes to intensity of snowfall the Blizzard of 2005 is second to none, while the duration of the storm the blizzard of 2015 wins out.  Also wind gusts 2005 wins out over 2015 as Nantucket lost power as an 86mph wind gust hit the island, while Nantucket didn't lose power to the island in the 2015 storm where a 78mph gust ended up hitting the island.  As for snowfall amounts as I said earlier, the Blizzard of 2005 beat out the Blizzard of 2015 by two inches, 35" to 33" respectively. 

Entries in this blog

 

Since Pattern has changed, thoughts on first snowfall?

Since the pattern has changed and we are now in an active northern stream regime, cold air will be getting worse and worse, deeper and deeper in nature as each trough takes aim at the New England region, where eventually we will see our first snow in SNE around the first week in November as cold air becomes sustained, Mount Washington, New Hampshire already saw their first snow of the year.  +PNA/-NAO pattern has begun and could sustain itself for quite awhile into January or beyond.  Still a lot of data coming in.  WIll update you on the latest when it comes imminent.

USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

With SSTs way above average in the NW Atlantic Ocean, severe weather seems likely this weekend

Without a true marine layer influence this late summer day, we could see a major severe weather outbreak late on Friday night.  Shear and instability need to be checked but models show a very potent upper level low traversing the region late Friday afternoon swinging a cold front which will bring below normal temperatures through the area later this weekend into the early weekdays.  Stay tuned and listen to the latest from your NWS WFO.
 

Weak El Nino winter outlook

This winter outlook is the preliminary try for JWN productions, weather amateur forecasting, and writing business.  We have several indications that a big snowy winter is coming for Southern New England.  While water temperatures between 35N:75W, 35N:70W, 40N:75W, 40N:75W within this box can help determine the potential baroclinicity involved in a potential winter storm, determining how much moisture is available to the storm's potential snowfall amounts.  If the water temperatures are above normal in this location, than chances are there is a greater than normal chance at significant snowfall for the areas north and northwest of the storm's track, now if it is colder than normal the reverse impact, there is no real science yet to help determine if the Gulf Stream's impact's go beyond intensity of a winter storm and its precipitation outlook, storm track is just a chance of happening along the Gulf Stream, it is not a reason for the storms tracking the way they do, but what does is the positioning and intensity of several upper level features, like the +PNA ridge, and its location and amplitude, as well as the 50/50 -NAO low, and the Greenland Ridge of the -NAO regime, as well as positioning and potential for a colder than normal atmosphere, in a -AO polar Vortex location and amplitude of the arctic jet stream.  While there are factors we know about that impact the long duration indices of the NAO/PNA/AO, we don't know what the day to day and week to week levels of the indices will be determining the outcome of a winter storm's location, intensity, and impact. An active Sub-tropical jet streams are notorious in El Nino ENSO patterns, therefore I expect the Gulf of Mexico to have extreme precipitation changes, along with a strong chance for severe weather from Florida to the Carolinas.  It also appears the +PNA will poke its large head onto the Western CONUS during the winter months, allowing an amplified jet stream to impact the troughing over the eastern US, leading to numerous storm chances along the East Coast, now intensity, precipitation amounts, and track will have a lot to do with the -NAO/AO pattern too, those are accurately forecasted at this time, but for now I will have to say an active Jan - Mar will have numerous blizzard potentials.  All for an above normal winter for snowfall, especially from NYC to BOS.
 

Could this NBA offseason be the best ever?

After the story of Kawhi Leonard now wanting out of San Antonio Spurs could change the landscape of the NBA this season.  He could go to Lakers and create a superteam with them bringing in Lebron James and Paul George.  However, the Boston Celtics will be in the mix for the top 2 player and NBA finals MVP and they could offer the Spurs a much better package of young talent and picks.  He could bring the Celtics a title next year with Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward, Jayson Tatum, Kawhi Leonard and Al Horford in the lineup.  Will Danny Ainge be willing to part ways with a few bench players, including potential NBA star in Jaylen Brown; as a Jaylen Brown fan personally, I would trade Jaylen Brown and do a sign and trade with Smart for Kawhi Leonard including the best future pick the Celtics have in their arsenal, the Sacramento Kings pick in 2019.  Thoughts in the comments section?
 

Novel is finished! The Awakening Dawn is ready for peer review

My latest draft of the Awakening Dawn is ready to be read by anyone willing to read the novel.  It is 291 pages long and 97,000 words deep.  It is about the precursor hurricane landfalls before the end of the world starts.  It is the first in what I hope is a series of novels, first one is called, "Awakening Dawn", the second one is called "Until Dawn, and Until Dusk", then the third novel in the series is "End of the Dusk"
 

JWN Productions Update!

My work is being done for my company to come out rolling the billions at some point.  It will be hard to sustain a tremendous amount of growth business wise with just myself working full-time with this business venture, my working name is JWN Productions.  It is a high rolling company in the works, I could always use some freelance writers who are looking for work full-time or part-time, remember we only get paid when the customers are buying the finished published products.  I am currently working on the Awakening Dawn novels, I figured I should work hard on the original money making ideas and finished them before I go on to other projects.  If I roll my dice correctly, I could be paying my future roads for years with the first franchise.  Then the other franchise novel series will be for fun and not so much business, but I want to make as much money as possible, it will take hard work and around the clockwork.  I am prepared to do what it takes to big it huge in this world.  I will be famous someday for hard work and creativeness.
 

March 12-14th Nor'easter Snow Map Final

Here is my third and final snow map for the Nor'easter tonight into Wednesday morning, 24 hour duration of snow, 24-30" in the jack pot zones likely, widespread 12-18" in all of eastern New England, snowfall rates may exceed 3-4"/hour, thundersnow potential is real, whiteout conditions will run rampant, high of around 35F and low around 28F on Tuesday for the Cape Cod area.  Blizzard warnings are likely later this afternoon once the 12z package rolls through.  Big potential for top three snowfall in Harwich, MA.  My snowfall map is for New England only
 

March 12-14th Nor'easter Blizzard Snow Map Number One

Here is the first snow map for the March 12-14th Nor'easter, looks colder than previous two nor'easters so there is a heavy snow component unlike the last two, and a very serious wind component which could bring hurricane force wind gusts to Cape Cod and the Islands during the day Tuesday with blizzard conditions at the same time due to heavy falling snow, accumulations east of CT look very reasonable SW CT gets the least amount this go around.
 

Massive Blizzard for Cape Cod becoming more and more likely after 12z runs March 10th

A monster storm is beginning to organize over the Northern PLains to the Southeastern US states this afternoon, a large energetic disturbance is causing a southwesterly jet to enhance precipitation across the Southeast, a large plume of low level moisture sits off the southwestern Peninsula of Florida at this time in the form of major thunderstorms producing a lot of rain.  Cold air is coming southward from the arctic region in the form of an upper level trough this trough will enter the US tomorrow morning in the form of a potential closed off upper level low, the newest 12z models produce 1-2' of snow for the Cape and Islands, before all said and done central MA and CT will receive 1-2' while the eastern MA and RI coastlines will receive the most snow from this storm, this looks like an all snow event on all models.  2-3' looks more probable at this time, this is a high end snowstorm event with wind potentially reaching hurricane force in gusts, stay tuned!
 

March 7-8th 2018 Nor'easter potential Blizzard Map

This is my only snowfall map for the Noreaster of March 7-8th 2018.  Thundersnow is apparent in NJ and NYC and especially in the warm conveyor belt south of SNE where lightning is immense underneath very cold cloud tops where convection is.  these heavier snow rates will bring down the cold air from the 850mb layer of the atmosphere and lead to potential snowfall over the Cape and Islands tonight the R/S line will crash southeast as the surface low is forecasted to move southeast of Nantucket and Chatham and is being reported as east of the 20z analysis of the 12z/18z NAM runs and 12z RGEM run, this should bode well  for the Cape and Islands as this will keep the 925mb 0C line southeast of the area and should promote dynamic cooling to the surface, we shall see, otherwise there is another nor'easter on the models for Monday of next week that looks a little more dangerous than this storm tonight.  We shall see!  Current observations: Harwich, MA 38F temp, ENE wind gusty, and raining
 

**Significant Winte Storm Likely for SNE**

A significant snowstorm is likely for Southern New England on Sunday.  Snowfall amounts near 6-10" is likely from NE PA to Boston, MA, on the immediate coastline temps will be closer to freezing so snowfall will be wetter consistency and therefore lesser amounts than slightly inland where I have 6-8" from west of 128 to NYC and Long Island, NY.  Snowfall map below:

USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

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