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About this blog

A few massive snowstorms have gained the respectability that every storm wants to gain.  The last few blizzards to strike the SNE region have not lived up to their predecessors.  The Blizzard of 2005 and 2015 are two storms that come to mind that blow everyone away when it comes to wind gusts and snowfall amounts in Harwich, MA.  When it comes to intensity of snowfall the Blizzard of 2005 is second to none, while the duration of the storm the blizzard of 2015 wins out.  Also wind gusts 2005 wins out over 2015 as Nantucket lost power as an 86mph wind gust hit the island, while Nantucket didn't lose power to the island in the 2015 storm where a 78mph gust ended up hitting the island.  As for snowfall amounts as I said earlier, the Blizzard of 2005 beat out the Blizzard of 2015 by two inches, 35" to 33" respectively. 

Entries in this blog

Once a legend always a legend
 

President's Day Snow Map Updated

Snow is beginning just on either side of midnight tonight into the rest of the day on Monday.  Models have upped the moisture produced by our secondary low with a max of around .50 to 1.00" of QPF from CHH westward to Plymouth, MA.  Winter Storm Watches issued for SE MA, RI and Cape Cod.  The Islands of Block Island, RI, Martha's Vineyard, MA and Nantucket, MA will see 2-4" with potential for rain mix with the snow.  Widespread Southern New England amounts of around 3-6", 6-12" the closer you are to the eastern MA coastline.  Areas towards the I90 pike area southward could see upwards of 4-6" while north of the pike see 2-4".  Areas west of Springfield, MA could see enhancement from the Berkshires as easterly winds pile up against the mountains.  This area could see bands of 4-6".  The Map does not reflect this threat at the moment.  Secondary low explodes as it moves east of ACK.  Could bring surface winds gusting to 30mph as the storm pulls away to the east on Monday afternoon.
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Once a legend always a legend
 

February 18th 2019 - President's Day Snowstorm Map

Latest models in agreement for up to 8" snowfall amounts for the south coast of CT, RI and SE MA tomorrow night into Monday.  Heaviest snows appear to occur between 12 am-midnight Monday to 12 pm noon time Monday for most of Southern New England.  Coastal low development, secondary low potentially stronger than modeled currently could become a bigger impactful storm in future runs where 10" amounts could become possible, but right now, not smart to forecast over 8" of snow in bands.  One band appears to develop over the VT/NH/MA border from the I90 pike northward and then I90 pike southward another strong band of lift in the DGZ could produce snowfall rates of 1"+/hour.  Winds should not be much of an impact until later Monday afternoon as the secondary low bombs out over the open ocean waters as it will take 24-36 hours from 1000mb to 950mb over and east of New Foundland, Canada.  Right now, the potential is this storm is strongest of the winter for the region.
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Once a legend always a legend
 

Dangerous Snowstorms the upcoming week could spread a deep pack across SNE

Models are aggressive with storm's developing from the deep southern jet stream branch with occassional diving northern jet stream branch with cold shots, these two streams could combine to produce three snowstorms this week.  Sunday night/Monday, Wednesday/Thursday, and again the following weekend all threat timeframes for substantial snowfall.  18z GFS produces 12-18" of snow over CHH the next 7 days.  Models are in two groups, it is pretty much the EURO vs everyone else.
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Once a legend always a legend
 

Could Squall line bring 100-knot wind gusts to Cape and Islands?

Today is January 24th, 2019, and we could have our first severe wind threat of the year.  Models are forecasting a very intense, somewhere around 4 above standard deviations of a low-level jet stream intensity.  100-knot is very anomalous for a low-level jet strength.  If convection can tap into this jet stream at 2000 to 5000 feet, than we can see damaging winds above 90mph enter the region sometime after 18z today.  Be tuned into the timing of the passage of the severe cold front, as these storms could be tornadic, but most likely damaging wind threat.  Stay tuned!
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Once a legend always a legend
 

Preliminary Snow Map for January 20-21st Nor'easter

The next name on the Weather Channel's annual Winter storm name's list is Winter Storm Harper, he is currently badgering the West Coast of the US.  Models bring his heavy precipitation and moisture to the New England area in the form of snow for most, and snow/rain mix southeast of BOS to Hartford line.  My snow map is the latest blend of guidance, and if the UKMET solution is right, I could be bust pretty low on the South Coast of MA, RI, and CT and it could be in the form of all snow in which 24-36" amounts would be plausible from NYC to BOS.  I hope for that solution, but I think it might be warm enough for a change to rain and so I am going conservatively with a 3-6" amount from New London, CT to Cape Cod, MA.  The map is pretty self-explanatory.  Oh, and more historical storms are in the chute.
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Once a legend always a legend
 

3 Snowstorms in 10 days!

Upper-level jet stream dives southward from Southern Canada into the northern tier of the CONUS.  Both jet streams potentially combine to produce a heavy QPF producing storm system with all types of precipitation.  Jet stream favors a -AO/+PNA/-NAO pattern which remains extremely favorable for winter storms to impact the Northeastern US.  Stay tuned, the next ten days could feature a very impactful set of three storms.
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Once a legend always a legend
 

3z SREFs mean remains bullish for Snow on Cape Cod

3z SREFs has a mean snowfall of 6.45" over HYA from tomorrow evening through Monday evening.  Some members are over 20" of snow and half are about 12"+, so there is a lot of spread in the means, and plus while the 00z EURO didn't show much precipitation over Cape and Islands, the model did up the ante with the upper level low and the surface low strengthening.  Also, the HRRR 6z run shows a lot of lightning developing with the surface low as it reaches the coastline, this could impact the surface low track by pushing it more towards the coastline as it ramps up within the upper-level trough.
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Once a legend always a legend
 

Winter Storm Gia could bring snow to Cape and Islands tomorrow

Models bring a chance at snow after 18z tomorrow afternoon.  Right now the NWS has a 20% chance for snow over the area, while I think it is something near 40% right now.  I am a little more bullish due to short range guidance getting more amped up in the southern stream disturbance and exiting the northern stream energy faster to the north of the storm.  This energy is causing a confluent flow over the northeastern CONUS allowing the DC winter storm to slide out to the southeast of the region, however, latest short-range guidance the HRRR and RAP 23z runs showing a potential for a deformation band to reach the South Coast of RI and MA.  Should this happen, amounts could vary through a dusting to as much as 6" or more, all depends upon where that band can setup.
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Once a legend always a legend
 

Short Range Guidance edging northward with Precipitation shield tomorrow for Cape and Islands

Could Cape Cod see their first accumulating snows of the season tomorrow afternoon into Monday?  I think so, latest guidance is edging towards an impact with some snow, the question is how much precipitation does fall over the area?  WV suggests that the northern confluence zone and northern stream energy causing the southward movement of the precipitation is actually moving out of Quebec, Canada at a quicker fashion, is it enough to allow the southern stream disturbance to intensify and push precipitation back into SNE?  I don't know, but tomorrows short range guidance will get a much clearer idea and I will give an accumulations map if we edge that way tomorrow morning.  Let's Go Patriots!
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Once a legend always a legend
 

CONUS West Coast Ridging (ie:+PNA) could lead to winter coming in the next week or so

Next week could give SNE our first real shot at accumulating snow threats with at least two upcoming events in the next 10 days to start winter off the right way.  The GFS, EURO, and EPS mean all show favorable pattern showing up in the 3-10 day range giving SNE shots at snow finally.  With a stout +PNA ridge out west leading to northern stream disturbances diving southeastward out of Manitoba, and Saskatchewan Canada we could get a few timing issues fixed and phased super bombs could be producing rounds of heavy snow even over the Outer Cape Cod and island of Nantucket the next week plus into the end of the month.  Stay tuned!
Once a legend always a legend
 

Christmas Eve Clipper? Could it be a bigger storm?

GFS and EURO, as well as the new experimental GFS, show the potential for a clipper on Christmas Eve of next week Monday.  Six days until this event, which is not a lot of time to discuss the potential.  However, models are not squishing the energy anymore and therefore not shredding the disturbance as it goes through the flow over the eastern US.  Time will tell if this event becomes more substantial, but there is potential.
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Once a legend always a legend
 

Succession of Clippers bring us a White Christmas!

Right now the storm for Sunday and Monday looks rather warm for SNE with a later phased stream bringing mainly rain to eastern SNE, especially the coastline.  However, I believe the models are having a problem identifying the +PNA and it is rather stout, +1 standard of deviation in the positive realm, leading to high ridging into Arctic Circle bringing cold air southeastward out of the reaches of central Canada.  The northern stream becomes quite amped up but too late on most of the guidance.  I will quickly check the short range guidance, the 00z RGEM, WRF ARW, and WRF NMM models.  The graphic I have below shows the two main players involved in the weather making this weekend.  First, the southern stream disturbance and upper-level low moving over the Mid-Atlantic States tomorrow through Sunday and of the NJ coastline by Sunday afternoon and south of ACK by Sunday night, does this tuck into the elbow of Cape Cod and make a stall or does it head out to the east of Nova Scotia?  Right now I would favor the HIRES models and show a path just east of Cape Cod occurring and pummeling Eastern SNE with heavy precipitation mainly snow northwest of Boston to Providence and a mix of snow and rain for the coastal plain.  I will have a snow accumulations map out tomorrow morning.  
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