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About this blog

A few massive snowstorms have gained the respectability that every storm wants to gain.  The last few blizzards to strike the SNE region have not lived up to their predecessors.  The Blizzard of 2005 and 2015 are two storms that come to mind that blow everyone away when it comes to wind gusts and snowfall amounts in Harwich, MA.  When it comes to intensity of snowfall the Blizzard of 2005 is second to none, while the duration of the storm the blizzard of 2015 wins out.  Also wind gusts 2005 wins out over 2015 as Nantucket lost power as an 86mph wind gust hit the island, while Nantucket didn't lose power to the island in the 2015 storm where a 78mph gust ended up hitting the island.  As for snowfall amounts as I said earlier, the Blizzard of 2005 beat out the Blizzard of 2015 by two inches, 35" to 33" respectively. 

Entries in this blog

Once a legend always a legend
 

New England in general could see our first legit severe threat May 23rd 2019

A lot of signs point to a potentially damaging wind event, right now parameters are not as supportive as we want, but models show storm potential as a monster low makes it path across ME into the Gulf of Maine.  Could be quite strong winds in convection and then the backside of the low could deliver very cold air and winds off the ocean.  Also, our prayers go out for Jefferson City, MO residents and everyone who has gone through these tornadoes yesterday and this morning.
Once a legend always a legend
 

The business that can change the landscape of Apocalyptic thrillers

Hey everyone, I am in the workings of creating a creative business that focuses on ideas and making them into stories to tell the world.  I am focused on working on a novel and get that published first.  I have a partner now.  Not official yet, but in the process of working the kinks out.  We are going to make a novel series and perhaps make movies after each novel in the franchise that now has a name, "The Awakening Dawn" series.  Each of the three novels has titles now, they are still working titles, and are subject to change.  'The Awakening Dawn" 9Book one), "From Dawn Until Dusk" (Book Two), "The End of the Awakening" (Book Three).  These novels will continue the story of the main characters, Jack Irving (25 year old hurricane specialist), Abi Acheson/Irving (Jack's fiancee in book one and wife throughout the rest of the story), Michael Reed (Jack's best friend since Kindergarten) and Marie Givens (Mike's girlfriend and wife later on and bosses daughter in book one).  Secondary characters who appear in every novel: Jack's family members: Daniel Irving (Brother), Sarah Irving (sister, unsure her future), Siobhan Irving (Jack's youngest sister), Edith Irving (Jack's mother, dies from pancreatic cancer in book one), William Irving (Jack's father, lives in all three books).  Other characters include Abi's best friend and secretary, USAF Reserve 53rd WRS hurricane hunter pilot Major/Lt. Colonel Brooks Carter and his crew.  And others... Next project and potential big-time franchise novel/movie series... 'The Terroristic Behavior Series" This is a story about a duel between a CIA trained assassin turned into terror suspect who terrorizes the US's world interests, many mysteries exist and are unraveled as the story goes on as former terror expert and ghost hunter, FBI special agent Sebastian Jenkins who is recently divorced and has three children.  He is hired by the FBI again or transferred to GHOST PROTOCOL.  He is hunting a person the government of the US considers a ghost.  The story lasts three novels and shows potential to become a big-time movie franchise.  Characters include Carter Avril - ghost, and Sebastian Jenkins Ghosthunter.  Still a work in progress in terms of character development and story development. There are other individual projects considered as well that could provide to the workload.  This is for the far future to determine. James Warren Nichols/Kyle Bass
Once a legend always a legend
 

Confidence Increasing for a Significant Coastal Storm on Saturday for SE SNE

00z and 6z models have brought an increasing amount of confidence that a significant snowstorm will impact the region sometime Saturday through Saturday night.  This looks like an all snow event once again, however, the dynamics are much better with a strengthening storm center passing just southeast of the benchmark.  Snow favors Cape and Islands and most of SE MA from the BOS to PVD corridor of I95 southeastward.  Cape Cod and the Islands have the best shot at a foot or more of snow.
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Once a legend always a legend
 

Are Catastrophic Hurricanes possible in the future?

While category five hurrianes are currently categorized at catastrohic (category five hurricane status these days) 156mph winds, these hurricanes develop with 85F+ wate temperatures, what if unforeseen circumstances bring these water temperatures to 95-97F, just a ten to twelve degree warming could lead to hurricanes with winds over 250 miles per hour.  This is trule a catastrophic level.  My novel includes the intensity of these monsters in the hurricane seasons of 2029 and 2030.  Could geolgical events in the Atlantic Ocean lead to such destructive hurricanes in the future?  Why not?
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Once a legend always a legend
 

Last President's Day Snowfall Map update number 3

This is the final map for this storm tomorrow, snow begins after 11 pm west zones in CT, 12 am for RI and 1 am for Eastern MA.  Heavy snow will overspread the area within an hour of starting, bands look to penetrate the Southern Coast of New England, with perhaps potentially 1"/hour rates for a time.  Snowfall map represents the heaviest QPF and snow outputs.  I think while I am aggressive, I think this will pay off.    
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Once a legend always a legend
 

President's Day Snow Map Updated

Snow is beginning just on either side of midnight tonight into the rest of the day on Monday.  Models have upped the moisture produced by our secondary low with a max of around .50 to 1.00" of QPF from CHH westward to Plymouth, MA.  Winter Storm Watches issued for SE MA, RI and Cape Cod.  The Islands of Block Island, RI, Martha's Vineyard, MA and Nantucket, MA will see 2-4" with potential for rain mix with the snow.  Widespread Southern New England amounts of around 3-6", 6-12" the closer you are to the eastern MA coastline.  Areas towards the I90 pike area southward could see upwards of 4-6" while north of the pike see 2-4".  Areas west of Springfield, MA could see enhancement from the Berkshires as easterly winds pile up against the mountains.  This area could see bands of 4-6".  The Map does not reflect this threat at the moment.  Secondary low explodes as it moves east of ACK.  Could bring surface winds gusting to 30mph as the storm pulls away to the east on Monday afternoon.
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Once a legend always a legend
 

February 18th 2019 - President's Day Snowstorm Map

Latest models in agreement for up to 8" snowfall amounts for the south coast of CT, RI and SE MA tomorrow night into Monday.  Heaviest snows appear to occur between 12 am-midnight Monday to 12 pm noon time Monday for most of Southern New England.  Coastal low development, secondary low potentially stronger than modeled currently could become a bigger impactful storm in future runs where 10" amounts could become possible, but right now, not smart to forecast over 8" of snow in bands.  One band appears to develop over the VT/NH/MA border from the I90 pike northward and then I90 pike southward another strong band of lift in the DGZ could produce snowfall rates of 1"+/hour.  Winds should not be much of an impact until later Monday afternoon as the secondary low bombs out over the open ocean waters as it will take 24-36 hours from 1000mb to 950mb over and east of New Foundland, Canada.  Right now, the potential is this storm is strongest of the winter for the region.
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Once a legend always a legend
 

Dangerous Snowstorms the upcoming week could spread a deep pack across SNE

Models are aggressive with storm's developing from the deep southern jet stream branch with occassional diving northern jet stream branch with cold shots, these two streams could combine to produce three snowstorms this week.  Sunday night/Monday, Wednesday/Thursday, and again the following weekend all threat timeframes for substantial snowfall.  18z GFS produces 12-18" of snow over CHH the next 7 days.  Models are in two groups, it is pretty much the EURO vs everyone else.
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Once a legend always a legend
 

Could Squall line bring 100-knot wind gusts to Cape and Islands?

Today is January 24th, 2019, and we could have our first severe wind threat of the year.  Models are forecasting a very intense, somewhere around 4 above standard deviations of a low-level jet stream intensity.  100-knot is very anomalous for a low-level jet strength.  If convection can tap into this jet stream at 2000 to 5000 feet, than we can see damaging winds above 90mph enter the region sometime after 18z today.  Be tuned into the timing of the passage of the severe cold front, as these storms could be tornadic, but most likely damaging wind threat.  Stay tuned!
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Once a legend always a legend
 

Preliminary Snow Map for January 20-21st Nor'easter

The next name on the Weather Channel's annual Winter storm name's list is Winter Storm Harper, he is currently badgering the West Coast of the US.  Models bring his heavy precipitation and moisture to the New England area in the form of snow for most, and snow/rain mix southeast of BOS to Hartford line.  My snow map is the latest blend of guidance, and if the UKMET solution is right, I could be bust pretty low on the South Coast of MA, RI, and CT and it could be in the form of all snow in which 24-36" amounts would be plausible from NYC to BOS.  I hope for that solution, but I think it might be warm enough for a change to rain and so I am going conservatively with a 3-6" amount from New London, CT to Cape Cod, MA.  The map is pretty self-explanatory.  Oh, and more historical storms are in the chute.
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Once a legend always a legend
 

3 Snowstorms in 10 days!

Upper-level jet stream dives southward from Southern Canada into the northern tier of the CONUS.  Both jet streams potentially combine to produce a heavy QPF producing storm system with all types of precipitation.  Jet stream favors a -AO/+PNA/-NAO pattern which remains extremely favorable for winter storms to impact the Northeastern US.  Stay tuned, the next ten days could feature a very impactful set of three storms.
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Once a legend always a legend
 

3z SREFs mean remains bullish for Snow on Cape Cod

3z SREFs has a mean snowfall of 6.45" over HYA from tomorrow evening through Monday evening.  Some members are over 20" of snow and half are about 12"+, so there is a lot of spread in the means, and plus while the 00z EURO didn't show much precipitation over Cape and Islands, the model did up the ante with the upper level low and the surface low strengthening.  Also, the HRRR 6z run shows a lot of lightning developing with the surface low as it reaches the coastline, this could impact the surface low track by pushing it more towards the coastline as it ramps up within the upper-level trough.
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