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An Early Season Winter Storm, too early to say!


USCAPEWEATHERAF

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Today, this morning in New England, Monday is a rather slow, unwelcoming day.  Most New England Patriots fans are waking to an early sun rise, with the knowledge that their New England Patriots took a big loss on the chin from the Baltimore Ravens before their week 10 bye.  With the knowledge that there are weaknesses on the team's defense and offense, we pay attention to the weather scene the next two weeks before another game is played against the Philadelphia Eagles.  I awake this Monday morning, knowing that a potential winter storm is lurking in the day four window, and according to the 00z EURO run this morning, there might be a legit snow to the coast by day 9.  However, that is both beside the point.  Today, Monday, November 4th, 2019 is only four days away from a modeled interior snowstorm for New England.  Possibility becomes likely when models begin to agree on the storm in the 3 1/2 day window and confidence begins to increase substantially with the three major global models in relative agreement, the EURO, GFS and UKMET models have the same event in the same location, with similar results.  We should wait another 36 hours before we are more confident in any model and have the short range ensembles and the short range HI resolution guidance in the range necessary for a high confidence forecast.  For now, the November 8th modeled event is just that, a potential and nothing more or less.  Residents southeast of the I95 corridor in RI and SE MA should not worry too much about accumulating snowfall, for the most part if it snows at all it should melt.  The sun angle, while getting lower, is not there yet, and the ground is too warm as well as the ocean to the northeast while cooling substantially faster than last year at this time, we are still in the low to mid 50s off the South Shore of Boston to Nantucket.  The only shot is a cold screaming north wind that carries the very cold arctic air mass over the warmer waters.  Right now, nothing supports snow in the area, Cape Cod residents who love snow, we need to wait.

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