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About this blog

A few massive snowstorms have gained the respectability that every storm wants to gain.  The last few blizzards to strike the SNE region have not lived up to their predecessors.  The Blizzard of 2005 and 2015 are two storms that come to mind that blow everyone away when it comes to wind gusts and snowfall amounts in Harwich, MA.  When it comes to intensity of snowfall the Blizzard of 2005 is second to none, while the duration of the storm the blizzard of 2015 wins out.  Also wind gusts 2005 wins out over 2015 as Nantucket lost power as an 86mph wind gust hit the island, while Nantucket didn't lose power to the island in the 2015 storm where a 78mph gust ended up hitting the island.  As for snowfall amounts as I said earlier, the Blizzard of 2005 beat out the Blizzard of 2015 by two inches, 35" to 33" respectively. 

Entries in this blog

Ocean Effect Snow Map coming in a few hours

I can finally say with confidence, after watching the models the last four days the minute this threat come up, we are going to have our first Ocean Effect Snow event this season.  After watching the model data come in today, I will watch the models tonight, and after the GFS comes to pass, I will update the snowfall map I expect for Thanksgiving, the key is accumulations are likely.  Stay tuned!
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Potential is increasing for a decent to substantial Ocean Effect snow event

Eastern Cape Cod, east of Hyannis, MA will receive the bulk of the snow threat.  Several inches is likely.  850mb temp to the surface of the ocean differential (Delta Ts) are around +30 to +32C, and this will provide the kind of instability that will lead to thundersnows.  This is what the Tug Hill Plateau sees and so does Buffalo with SW winds.  However, the Cape does well with NNW and N winds at the surface, if we get any convergence we will see a singular band producing 2-4"/hour snowfall rat
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White Thanksgiving????

Due to the presence of an -20C 850mb temp anomalies, we can expect the presence of ocean effect snow squalls, on NNW winds across most of the mid to outer Cape Cod, NWS BOX mentions 40% chance at snow over my head in Harwich, MA, and a chance at a few inches in localized areas.  Stay tuned!  As snow squalls, tomorrow night could also add to travel hazards.
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OES Event potentially looking white for Thanksgiving

Arctic front comes through the region by 00z Thursday, Wednesday evening around 7 pm, OES cloud streets develop several hours later as 850mb temps drop 30-40 C, around -20C by Thursday 12z (7am EST), where the OES machine should be in full force, over the ocean south of Nova Scotia the accumulations would bring 6-12" of snow over the water, but given we are close to land and need a northerly wind, that chances are we see more than .5" of snow is around 15%, snow chance around 40%, that includes
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Ocean Effect Snow Potential on the 22nd and 23rd, Thanksgiving snows

Parameters are in place for an outbreak of snow showers and snow squalls on Cape Cod, early Thanksgiving through Friday afternoon of this upcoming holiday week.  GFS forecasts -20C 850mb temps, coupled with +10C of ocean water temperatures equals a very unstable atmospheric profile, I will have to watch this potential closely as it is still about five days away.  But the potential exists at least for festive flurries on Thanksgiving day.  Stay tuned!
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Tuesday storm could bring snows just inland

Right now if I were to do a snow map I would focus on areas just west of the Canal and focus on a Providence, RI to Boston, MA route along I95.  Snow could accumulate quickly with a quick band of heavy snows, precip shows about .50 to .75" of a quick burst on the GFS and its members, EURO and CMC are too far southeast for anything substantial at this time.  And NAM is just getting into the frame of time.  Right now there is about a 35% chance the mid levels of the atmosphere could be cold enough
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Winter Storm could bring first accumulating snows to SNE

Models are beginning to show signs of a potential winter storm in the 6-8 day period.  EURO and GGEM show this storm impacting SNE, with ocean effect snows and synoptic precip, the GGEM is a little warmer than the 00z EURO, which shows this potential as a trough swings through the upper level flow.  I have been keying on this potential as there appears to be a Quebec, Canada Arctic high in place north of the storm and north of NYS.  This will lock in the cold air at the surface into the coastlin
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First SNE snowfall, in 10-11 days? - November 12th?

While it seems impossible to ignore, the models are clearing showing signs of winter arriving earlier than the past several winters of New England.  Snow could fall as early as next week across the lower Southern Plains of OK, KS, and TX and then move into New England as the southern stream becomes active and perhaps develop with the arctic stream to phase and develop a significant nor'easter with cold temperatures over the region.  Would like to see more and better model support over the next t
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Pattern Changing Storm comes through November 7-8th

A massive Great Lakes storm system will impact the US sometime in the next 7-8 days from now maybe sooner and will switch the pattern to an EC trough and WC ridge pattern favoring cold and stormy conditions for the Eastern CONUS in the mid to late month time frame.  A massive snowstorm is a potential noise maker come November 12-18th period.  The signal is increasing for a formidable Clipper approaching the EC to come after 10 days.  EURO, GFS both have this system.  Cold temps look to stay prev
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First New England Snowstorm this upcoming week, TUE into WED

The first moderate snowstorm of the fall season and winter season comes for Tuesday into Wednesday, October 23-24th, 2018 from Caribou, ME CWA northwestward into the mountains of NW Maine, where up to 8" is possible, and forecasted by the models.  I have my first snowfall map this year posted in the NNE fall thread and I will post below.  An arctic jet will come southeastward during the late weekend into the early weekdays of the next few days.  As it hits the SE New England coastline a surface
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Pattern will yield a multi-hazard storm system for end of October

Anomalous +PNA ridge blocking regime seems fit for the end of the month weeks into early November, this pattern should yield a powerful storm with orgins in the Arctic Realm.  The questions arise on the arrival of the arctic jet, how close does it phase into the southern trough in the El Nino regime developing over the Pacific Ocean, equator seems fascinating with SSTs pattern and aloft in the atmosphere.  Will share more later tomorrow.
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Since Pattern has changed, thoughts on first snowfall?

Since the pattern has changed and we are now in an active northern stream regime, cold air will be getting worse and worse, deeper and deeper in nature as each trough takes aim at the New England region, where eventually we will see our first snow in SNE around the first week in November as cold air becomes sustained, Mount Washington, New Hampshire already saw their first snow of the year.  +PNA/-NAO pattern has begun and could sustain itself for quite awhile into January or beyond.  Still a lo
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Dangerous peak to hurricane season beginning

A huge start in the peak of hurricane season will begin tomorrow afternoon as a tropical wave continues to emerge off the Western African Coastline east of the Cabo Verde Islands.  The dangerous storm will develop by Monday, Labor Day. over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
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Working on First Novel again

Well, guys and gals, the first novel is being rewritten now, the previous draft I finished wasn't good enough, so I am taking James Patterson's masterclass and I am learning the art of writing.
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With SSTs way above average in the NW Atlantic Ocean, severe weather seems likely this weekend

Without a true marine layer influence this late summer day, we could see a major severe weather outbreak late on Friday night.  Shear and instability need to be checked but models show a very potent upper level low traversing the region late Friday afternoon swinging a cold front which will bring below normal temperatures through the area later this weekend into the early weekdays.  Stay tuned and listen to the latest from your NWS WFO.
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Weak El Nino winter outlook

This winter outlook is the preliminary try for JWN productions, weather amateur forecasting, and writing business.  We have several indications that a big snowy winter is coming for Southern New England.  While water temperatures between 35N:75W, 35N:70W, 40N:75W, 40N:75W within this box can help determine the potential baroclinicity involved in a potential winter storm, determining how much moisture is available to the storm's potential snowfall amounts.  If the water temperatures are above nor
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"The Awakening Dawn" will be published soon!

Ladies and Gentlemen of Americanweather.com forums, I have tremendous news to tell everyone interested.  My novel about three monster category five hurricanes making landfall on the US during a 36 hour time frame will be allowed to be published within the next few months.  
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Could this NBA offseason be the best ever?

After the story of Kawhi Leonard now wanting out of San Antonio Spurs could change the landscape of the NBA this season.  He could go to Lakers and create a superteam with them bringing in Lebron James and Paul George.  However, the Boston Celtics will be in the mix for the top 2 player and NBA finals MVP and they could offer the Spurs a much better package of young talent and picks.  He could bring the Celtics a title next year with Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward, Jayson Tatum, Kawhi Leonard and
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