Geoboy645

SPC has introduced a Day 4 15% across IA/IL/WI all the way to the UP Border.

The models within the last couple of days have really honed in on a potential multi-day severe and heavy rain threat over this weekend over the western part of the forum. With a particular focus at this point on Friday in IA for severe and a heavy rain event over the Upper Mississippi Valley for the weekend. Considering how wet it has been in that part of the forum for the last month and a half, there may be some flooding concerns as we get closer. Could be a very busy weekend here in the Midwest.

Yeah up here at least our forecast doesn't drop close to 32 all week. Coupled with all the recent precip and sunny days later in the week, everything should be going nuts for green up by the end of the week.

We maxed out at about 5 inches on the ground around midnight on Wednesday. We switched to mix after that and we only had about 2 inches after that. One thing about this though is how wet it is here now. We went from basically no puddles when it rained two weeks ago to now puddles everywhere on the lawns and sidewalks. GRB has had 1.36 inches in the last three days and 2.76 inches in the last three weeks. Talk about a turnaround here

It's been pretty gnarly so far here in GRB. We had thundersnow about 2 hours ago that I unfortunately did not hear. The wind has really picked up and we have I would say 3-4" on the ground. I think we have transitioned back to mix here as well though, although it is hard to tell. If we have transitioned back to mix, that could cut down on our totals however. Either way it is a slushy mess outside rn.

We fully switched over to snow about 2 hours ago. It has been heavily coming down since, with probably 1-1.5 inches or so accumulation so far on grass. Green Bay officially has us at 8-12" for snowfall, with 12-18 further N. What an escalation considering 48 hours ago we were talking snow showers. It's going to be a long night here in Green Bay.

I figured this needed it's own thread at this point. So the models over the last 24 hours have really come into agreement that tomorrow into Wednesday across Wisconsin and the UP. Some models like the 18z have over 20 inches (!) of snow on the Ledge by this time Wednesday afternoon, and it's still snowing. Which is absolutely insane. There's also the potential for up to 50mph gusts during this event as well. And with the lake being completely open and warm for this time of year, there is a decent chance of lake enhancement off of Green Bay. If that happens, then the sky is the limit for potential in the Fox Valley with this storm in my opinion.

It's already starting to snow a little bit here in Green Bay. GRB has issued a winter storm watch for tomorrow and Wednesday for it's eastern half and this is pretty strong wording considering the low lead time for this. This is really giving me the same vibes as 3/25 last year. Large area of snow, with a death band that we don't really know where it's going to set up in the event is underway. And this time, there's going to be a hefty wind component to it. Green Bay may legit get it's second foot plus storm this year which is insane considering the rest of the winter.

....wait what...

I'd say this winter was a C- here. The theme of this winter was what it wasn't doing for really all but two weeks. Basically no snowcover, consistent temps in the 30s and 40s, and two double digit positive monthly anomalies. A green Christmas with 50s and rain, and oh yeah a sigtor on February 8th (!). However, the two weeks that were wintry were one of the more intense winter periods we have had in the last 5 years. Probably number 3 after the last week of Jan in 2019 and the two weeks in Feb 2021. Over 20 inches of snow followed by a week in the single digits is pretty intense no matter what the winter is. And that snowpack was extremely solid. Even with the constant 40s after the period, it still took over two weeks for the snowpack to melt. If it was a normal winter we might just now be finishing off that snowpack. So I can't really go too low with the score because of that. Hence, my score of a C-.

You could say that yeah. So much for those futility records lol.

Yeah the consistent signal for the beginning of a stormy period has been nice to see the last few days. What's not been so nice is the signal that at least some of that precip could be of the frozen variety especially in the N of the forum. But precip is precip, and basically everywhere can really use some right now no matter the type.

According to Xmacis, looks like April 6th, 1912 is the latest Minneapolis crossed the 1" mark for the year. Interestingly enough, that was also a Nino albeit it only got 1.4 instead of 1.8 departure. The difference however is that 1911-1912, especially January 1912, was one of the coldest winters ever for the Midwest. Like Minneapolis averaged a *checks notes* -18.9 departure for the month in January (!). Quite the opposite of this winter to say the least.

Yeah if we don't have a wet March then we are going to be in big trouble across most of the Upper Midwest. We really didn't recover from the drought all that much even in the wetter areas last fall. Combine that with the no frost and snowpack and we are already about 2-3 weeks ahead arguably from an evapotranspirational standpoint. I have some serious concerns especially for MN and the Northwoods where they didn't even get the snow in January.