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beavis1729

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About beavis1729

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KDPA
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    Male
  • Location:
    Lake Zurich, IL

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  1. beavis1729

    June 2018 General Discussion

    Yeah...I know the official station was right up against the lake when many of Chicago's April-June record low maxes were set...but that's crazy. The lake water temps must have been very chilly in the late 1800s and early 1900s during the spring-early summer. I wonder how reliable the data is.
  2. beavis1729

    June 2018 General Discussion

    Looks like today's high temp at ORD will only be 64. This is about 20 degrees below normal...which is hard to do in late June.
  3. beavis1729

    June 2018 General Discussion

    Yeah, 10 days out...but man, it will be a furnace & sauna if that Euro run verifies. The ground is incredibly wet here for the time of year, and we'll probably add to that tonight and tomorrow.
  4. beavis1729

    Coldest wind chill by state

    Very rarely in that part of the world. In fact, they hardly ever occur even in the Chicago area...where winter temps average about 6-8 degrees colder than northern KS. As an example...despite the fact that 1/6/2014 was a brutally cold and windy day in northern IL, wind chills "only" dropped to around -45.
  5. beavis1729

    Coldest wind chill by state

    Good find. In those hourlies, I see -21 with 16 mph wind, and -22 with 14 mph wind. Both result in a WC of -47. The intra-hour reading showed a 16 mph wind, but no temp to go along with it. Again, can't take it too seriously; part of the challenge and fun of science is putting the pieces together and finding/analyzing data. The planet has been around for a long time...I'm sure some of records will be broken in the next 50-100 years. Some of it depends on timing and having a better observation network now; we don't need to hope that the extreme events occur only at the major reporting stations. For example - if the record cold in Bartlesville, OK in Feb 2011 occurred a generation ago, we would have probably never known about it. Same with tropical storms in the middle of the Atlantic. Just part of the journey. I've updated the list in the first post of the thread; it's easier to keep track there.
  6. beavis1729

    Coldest wind chill by state

    Oops. I got it from this article...I guess they missed it. https://www.pressherald.com/2014/01/04/how_low_can_portland_temperatures_go__/
  7. beavis1729

    Coldest wind chill by state

    I poked around and looked for hourly temp/wind obs in Maine during late Feb 1943, but no luck so far. The -39 in Portland is even more shocking because, not only does it blow all other low temp readings out of the water in Portland...but it occurred relatively late in the season...on 2/26/1943. A cool 58 degrees below the 1981-2010 normal low of 19. Yikes.
  8. beavis1729

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Nice graphs...and for those interested in AK weather & climate, that Alaska-wx blog website is great. Wow, nearly every single day from Nov 2017 - Mar 2018 was above normal in Barrow (and these are recent normals, i.e. 1981-2010)...and many of those days were way way above normal. Perhaps it's not too surprising, as the persistently low amount of ice north of Barrow over the past 10-15 years significantly moderates the temps in Barrow due to E or NE flow...but still.
  9. beavis1729

    June 2018 General Discussion

    LOT overnight Very little to add to the past several forecast discussions regarding the weekend heat. There has been very little change in forecast guidance with parameters pretty much all forecast to be at or near record levels this weekend, supporting record or near record breaking temperatures. Some of the hottest ambient temps this weekend should be in Chicago area due to land surface lacking vegetation which should keep temps a couple degrees cooler outlying areas, but also dewpoints a few degrees higher. Generally expecting dewpoints this weekend to be in the low to mid 70s, though probably mid 60s to near 70 in Chicago. The somewhat hotter air temps should partially compensate for the lower dewpoints in the city. Generally ran with mid 90s for Saturday, though wouldn`t be surprised to see a few spots tag 97 or 98. By Sunday, air mass is actually progged to warm a bit more and mid to upper 90s (hottest in the Chicago metro) look like a solid bet with a couple triple digit reading not completely out of the question. Dewpoints Sunday look to be in the same ballpark as Saturday, lowest in Chicago metro where temps should be the hottest. Guidance is in pretty good agreement now on a early Monday evening fropa, which would mean another day of heat and humidity Monday, In fact, Monday could end up being one of the more humid days as moisture pools a bit ahead of the front. These lake enhanced fronts do have a habit of moving more quickly than guidance forecasts, so there is certainly hope for Chicago metro area to see relief from the heat arrive Monday afternoon. There is a reasonably good shot that at a handful of locations, particularly the spots with typically higher dewpoints, could reach heat advisory criteria this weekend. Certainly wouldn`t be surprised to see a heat advisory eventually be hoisted for at least part of the weekend. Should see a lot of sunshine this weekend which combined with southwest winds likely to stay up a bit at night should set the stage for some extreme nighttime low temps in the urban heat island area of Chicago. Low temps Saturday and Sunday night could struggle to drop below 80 with heat indices likely remaining in the 90s through the evening and possibly into the early part of the overnight hours. As you may recall, following the killer 1995 heat wave, Chicago has had specialized excessive heat warning criteria due to the effects of the urban heat island and greater vulnerability to impacts of heat. At this point, it would appear to be solidly greater than a 50% chance of Chicago reaching their 3 consecutive days of 100-105 criteria for an excessive heat warning. Coupled with the expectation of full or nearly full sunshine 2 of the 3 days and oppressive conditions lasting well into the nighttime hours, have opted to issued an excessive heat watch for Cook County. If later model runs speed up the front Monday or if dewpoints in the city mix out more than forecast, then the watch could be converted to an advisory.
  10. beavis1729

    June 2018 General Discussion

    Agree with your thoughts. For ORD, LOT is now calling for 95 on Saturday and 97 Sunday...with lows of 78 on Sunday & Monday mornings. Even if a low temp of 80 doesn't occur, upper 70s would still be noteworthy. For June 18th and earlier, there have only been two occurrences of a low temp of 78. There has never been a low temp of 79 or higher. - Min of 78 (6/7/1933) - Min of 78 (6/15/1994)
  11. There aren't many things in science that remain undiscovered or undocumented..and I've never been able to locate a list of WC records by state anywhere. A fun little science/research project.
  12. beavis1729

    Coldest wind chill by state

    Ok, come on...this is not meant to be personal. All I'm trying to do is have a good list based on verifiable numbers. I'm a scientist, so it's important to have quality control of the data. It's not a personal vendetta. If others are estimated besides IN and KS, you're right that they shouldn't be on there either. It's a work in progress.
  13. beavis1729

    Coldest wind chill by state

    Ha...got to fill the summer downtime!!
  14. beavis1729

    Coldest wind chill by state

    These WC records are intended to be actual measured readings of temperature and sustained winds (even if intra-hour), not interpolated estimates based on winds at nearby areas, and not to fill in missing data.
  15. beavis1729

    Coldest wind chill by state

    Good catch - verified on wunderground hourly obs. I don't remember that cold snap - must have targeted New England instead of the Midwest.
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