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About beavis1729

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    Lake Zurich, IL

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  1. Dropped to 6 here, and 7 at ORD. The 7 at ORD breaks the daily low temp record for 11/12, and is the coldest temperature on record for Chicago so early in the season. The prior coldest was 8 on 11/12/1986. ORD also set a record low of 13 last night (11/11) just before midnight, breaking the old record of 15 in 1950. Rockford dropped to 3 this morning, breaking the daily record low for 11/12 (old record 7 in 1986). Also, this morning was the coldest temp on record so early in the season. Previous record was 3 on 11/13/1986.
  2. Rochester MN dropped to 0 this morning, breaking the old record of 1 set in 1991. Normal low for today is 30.
  3. Agree, now within 5-6 days instead of 7-10. Also, it looks like there could be a bit of snowpack in the source region (Upper Midwest), which is noteworthy this time of year. If all of this comes together, areas here or nearby could be close to record cold. Probably getting ahead of myself again ...but here are some records that *could* be in jeopardy: Madison: Record low 9 on 11/11 (2017), 7 on 11/12 (1979). Record low max 23 on 11/11 (1894). Rockford: Record low 14 on 11/10 (2017), 10 on 11/11 (1926). Record low max 29 on 11/10 (1933), 26 on 11/11 (1986), 27 on 11/12 (1940). ORD: Record low 18 on 11/10 (2017), 15 on 11/11 (1950). Record low max 28 on each of 11/10 (1926), 11/11 (1894), 11/12 (1995).
  4. Well, all this talk doesn’t matter anymore, since the 12z gfs lost the arctic outbreak. Sure, it’s still generally a bit colder than normal and therefore could open the door for a possible snow event...but the cold isn’t noteworthy. Obviously 492 dm thicknesses in the northern plains were overdone...but I expected a modest correction to 498 or 504...not 516. That’s a 15-20 degree difference in sensible weather. Plus, the angle of the cold is wrong now; too far east. I guess we deserve this for looking at Day 7-9 op runs...but that’s what winter weenies (including me) look at in November. You would think Day 7-9 has some general predictability. If it were Day 10+, that’s different. Anyway, I suppose it’s best to give it a day or two and not jump off the train yet...but we’ll see.
  5. Well, for Round 2, the 12z NAM and 3k NAM show roughly 0.6" - 0.8" of liquid in the northern half of the LOT area, between 9 PM tonight and 9 PM on Halloween night. That's the good news, but unfortunately the good news ends there. Given the discussion and model analysis over the past couple of days, you would've thought that Round 2 would be all snow. Unfortunately, based on recent tends, it looks like 50%+ of it will be liquid/mix/35F snow due to contamination of the boundary layer off the lake. And this isn't just for areas right by the lake; it's most/all of the metro area. So, if you figure 8:1 ratios when it does snow at temps that would allow sticking, 1-2" seems like a best case, unfortunately. You just need a million things to go right this time of year, and it just doesn't seem to be happening. If only this were 2 weeks later... Even so, accumulating snow on Halloween is always a bonus, and has never happened in all my time living here.
  6. While it will be chilly in these parts over the next few days, some incredibly cold air has plunged into the Rockies and western plains. Denver, as an example... 10/28: New record cold max of 21. Old record was 30 in 1925. 10/29: New record cold max of 19. Old record was 25 in 1993. 10/30: Record cold max is 18 in 2002; record low is 7 in 1991. Forecast is 19/3, so a record low will probably be set. 10/31: Record low is 10 in 1991. Forecast low is -3 (!). All-time October monthly low is -2 on 10/29/1917. Normals this time of year are around 60/ there will be 3 days in a row with -40 departures on the high temps. It looks like Cheyenne WY will smash their October monthly record low too.
  7. Yikes, the little ones in the northern plains could be trick or treating in bitterly cold temps, if that verifies. Good stuff. Definitely some signs of cold air coming down on various models, for October standards. We will see...
  8. It dropped to -8 this morning in West Yellowstone, MT. That's insane for October 10th.
  9. AFD from Grand Forks Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 718 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 714 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Band of showers moved quickly north thru WC and NW MN and wrapped back into the RRV and as it is enountering the colder air trning no snow Devils Lake, Cooperstown area. Radar showing a large ara of snow and rain headed our way. No changes to the fcst necessary in the very shor term. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 351 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 The most difficult snow forecast and highest snowfall forecast of my 30 year career. Hard to believe model data at this point. Chat with WPC and they can`t believe it either, but moisture advection today out ahead of 500 mb short will spread precipitation across the area. Banding has been evident with snow band in western ND into western SD tonight. All signs point to rapid development of precipiatation today as 50 kt low level jet moves into central ND. Rain showers into E ND and NW MN overnight with some thunder at times in MN. This band of rain looks to set up over the RRV today with rainfall amounts today 0.75 to 1 inch possible. Some thunder in west central MN possible. West of the RRV atmosphere will cool as main precip moves in and what could be a mix will go to snow this morning and snow heavy at times this aftn and tonight just west of the RRV. Lift in the dendritic zone would support high accumulation rates esp this evening in the DVL area. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 351 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Main upper low will move thru western MN and settle over NW MN Friday night and then wobble around. A very strong def zone will be over E ND Friday afternoon and night with heavy snow and likely very high snow rates...NE ND ...roughly Hallock to Grand Forks to just west of Fargo and west. Very strong winds will develop west of the sfc low which will near the 500 mb low location. Well mixed layer up thru 50-55 kts to mix down Langdon to btwn Devils Lake and Grand Forks Friday into Saturday AM. Net result of all this is will go winter storm warning for the entire event (thru 18z Sat) for eastern ND... will upgrade watch to warning as well Fargo zone and far SE ND mainly for tonight change to some snow but it looks like on southwest side of upper low snow will accumulate more than 6 inches into F-M area more so Friday. Kept winter storm watch bordering main snow band Roseau to Fosston to Fergus Falls and dropped watch far eastern counties as any snow there later Friday into Saturday 2 inches or less.
  10. Here is the point forecast for Langdon, ND. 18-32" through Friday, with more snow Friday night and Saturday. Amazing. Brings back memories of the 1991 Halloween storm in Duluth, but this time there's no lake enhancement. Today Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow after noon. High near 33. Breezy, with a north wind 23 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Tonight Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. Low around 28. Windy, with a north wind around 30 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Friday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. High near 30. Windy, with a north northwest wind 33 to 37 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible. Friday night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow, mainly after 5am. Low around 28. Windy, with a north northwest wind 32 to 39 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Snow. Widespread blowing snow before 4pm, then patchy blowing snow after 5pm. High near 32. Windy, with a north northwest wind 29 to 34 mph decreasing to 18 to 23 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
  11. Not in our sub-forum...but I can't remember seeing it so dry in Denver. At 5PM local time yesterday, it was 78/-5, translating to RH of 4%.
  12. The 6z GFS ups the ante even more, at least for Grand Forks...
  13. Of course it’s still early, but I’ve been seeing some hints at a modoki El Niño for DJF, which in theory would be good for many of us. There’s a recent post in the mid-Atlantic forum winter thread on this. Not sure how to link to the image on mobile.
  14. Disappointing at ORD, missed the monthly record by a hair. I knew this could happen when I was out for a walk last night around 11:00, and could feel the outflow hit. I'm about 20 miles N of ORD. The temp dropped from 77 to 70 in 15 minutes. But Rockford did set a new monthly high min for October: RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 0145 AM CDT WED OCT 2 2019 ...ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER SET AT ROCKFORD IL ON TUESDAY OCTOBER 1... A DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 70 DEGREES WAS SET AT ROCKFORD ON TUESDAY OCTOBER 1. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR OCTOBER 1 OF 63 DEGREES SET IN 1971. THIS ALSO WAS A DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. THIS TOPS THE OLD RECORD OF 69 DEGREES SET ON OCTOBER 3 1954 AND OCTOBER 21 1979. THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR ROCKFORD DATES BACK TO 1905.