Jump to content


  • Content count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
  • Gender
  • Location:
    Lake Zurich, IL

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

  1. beavis1729

    Winter 2019-2020 Discussion

    Looking at the daily data for Machias, snow depth was 0” on January 24th, then increased to 74” by February 16th. Wow. Snow depth was still 62” on March 4th, and finally melted out on April 18th.
  2. beavis1729

    Spring/Summer 2019 Complaint/Banter Thread

    Tampa FL had a low of 84 this morning, and it will probably hold through midnight since no rain is expected. This would be their 2nd warmest min on record; the highest is 85 on 8/27/2011. Currently in Tampa (10 AM local time), it's partly cloudy and 87/79/101. Just brutal...
  3. beavis1729

    Spring/Summer 2019 Complaint/Banter Thread

    Phoenix is 92/66 at 6:00 AM local time...yuck. The high yesterday was 107, with a min of 88.
  4. beavis1729

    Spring/Summer 2019 Complaint/Banter Thread

    Yeah... Midland TX (MAF) is up to 112, which is a new August monthly high. Records go back to 1930. The old August monthly high was 108, and the daily record high was 103 (!). There have only been two higher temps on record: 116 on 6/27/1994, and 114 on 6/28/1994. Edit: MAF hit 113.
  5. beavis1729

    Spring/Summer 2019 Complaint/Banter Thread

    Not in our area...but all-time record high temps are possible in western TX today. From NWS Midland: Let`s cut to the chase this morning - it`s going to be extremely, dangerously hot today. An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect for the entire area, with the exception of only northern Lea county, the mountains of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, and the Presidio Valley, where Heat Advisories are in effect. Temperatures this afternoon will soar into the 100s areawide (you won`t even be able to get away from the heat in the mountains today), and records are expected to fall. Yesterday, Midland set a new record high temperature for the month of August of 108 degrees, and today`s forecast high of 113 would easily top that, as well as be the hottest temperature we`ve ever had this late in the calendar year. For a little perspective, if we hit 113 today, it`ll be Midland`s third hottest day on record, beaten only by June 27th and June 28th 1994 (116 degrees and 114 degrees, respectively). We cannot stress enough how dangerous today`s heat will be, and encourage everyone to follow heat safety rules, and be cognizant of the symptoms and dangers of heat related illness. Per this morning`s water vapor imagery, an elongated ridge of high pressure remains anchored over the region, with a deepening trough extending from the Upper Midwest to the central Gulf Coast. An 850hpa thermal ridge will help drive temperatures up this afternoon, with latest guidance indicating 850hpa temperatures of around +33C to nearly +37C by later today. The NAM and GFS came in closer to the warmer ECMWF guidance for temperatures aloft, though at the surface, per Sunday`s verification, guidance has continued to under-forecast high temperatures. Have continued to lean toward the warmer ECMWF guidance, with deep mixing expected to yield surface temperatures this afternoon of 105-115 degrees across lower elevations, and 100-105 degrees across the higher terrain.
  6. beavis1729

    Spring/Summer 2019 Complaint/Banter Thread

    I echo that.
  7. beavis1729

    Spring/Summer 2019 Complaint/Banter Thread

    A nice tribute to Amy Seeley, from NWS LOT: https://www.weather.gov/lot/AmySeeleyTribute
  8. beavis1729

    July 2019 General Discussion

    INL dropped to 37 this morning. This broke the daily record of 38, set in 1898 (!). Normal low for July 30th is 53. It was a "perfect storm" of conditions...cloudy all day yesterday with temps in the mid 60s until sunset, then it cleared out with light winds and temps dropped quickly.
  9. beavis1729

    July pattern(s) and discussion

    Looks like Paris officially hit 108, breaking their all-time high of 105 from 1947.
  10. beavis1729

    July 2019 General Discussion

    Nice overnight AFD from Carlaw at LOT. Very technical and interesting. Mentioned a term that I've never heard before: Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), a measure of heat stress in direct sunlgiht which takes into account sun angle, cloud cover, and wind speed. Depending on what happens with any convective complex Thursday morning, outflow may temporarily bring lower dewpoints and temperatures to the area to start the day. However, southwesterly low-level flow will transport renewed moisture into the region through the day. Rising mid-level heights and 850 mb temperatures warming towards +25C will set the stage for oppressive heat and humidity on Thursday afternoon. Some questions remain regarding the degree of mixing during the afternoon with breezy southwesterly winds (gusting to 25-30 mph at times), although the aforementioned cap may limit the propensity for dewpoints to quickly mix out. If this occurs, heat indices would likely rise into the 104-110 degree range across a large portion of the CWA (including the lakeshore). The breezy southwest winds will help take the edge of the heat and humidity a bit, however. The Wet Bulb Globe Temperature, which is a measure of heat stress (in direct sunlight) and takes into account sun angle, cloud cover, and wind speeds maxes out in the 86-89 degree range on Thursday with our current forecast. While these values are certainly at the higher end of the spectrum, WBGT values are actually higher (89-92) on Friday when wind speeds decrease, even though heat indices may actually be a degree or two lower than on Thursday. Values above 89 indicate exceptionally high heat stress potential. The heat and humidity look to persist into Saturday, although there are still some questions regarding MCSs which may start to get close to us. Associated cooling outflows throw a wrench into this portion of the forecast. Given the lingering uncertainties (regarding mixing potential on Thursday and the longevity of the hottest conditions), we will not be hoisting any heat headlines at this time. A combination of Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Watches/Warnings will likely be needed in future forecasts, however. It`s also worth noting here that little relief from the heat will occur at night, with sweltering conditions expected Thursday and Friday nights with near or record high minimum temperatures forecast.
  11. beavis1729

    July 2019 General Discussion

    Yeah, could be close. Excessive Heat Watch for the entire state of Iowa. DVN's Excessive Heat Warning criteria is 2 consecutive days with HI 105+, or 4 consecutive days with HI 100+. From DVN: 313 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... The National Weather Service in Quad Cities has issued an Excessive Heat Watch, which is in effect from Wednesday afternoon through Saturday evening. * Heat Index Values...Ranging from 100 to 110 due to temperatures in the mid to upper 90s...and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. * Timing...Wednesday Afternoon through Saturday Evening. * Impacts...Heat-related illnesses may occur due to the prolonged period of heat and humidity.
  12. beavis1729

    July 2019 General Discussion

    Nice stats. As it looks now, Friday will remain capped/sunny, with a high launching point in the AM (overnight min near 80F). Lack of afternoon mixing is always a risk, but would be mitigated somewhat due to the high overnight min and relatively dry ground. With this in mind, here are my thoughts for ORD: 98F or higher: 80% 100F or higher: 40% 102F or higher: 5% Daily records for 7/19 are: - Max = 101F, set in 1930 - Warmest min = 78F, set in 2011
  13. beavis1729

    July 2019 General Discussion

    Hoosier - very sorry to hear what happened...and best wishes for a speedy and successful recovery. Nice to see you posting here again.
  14. beavis1729

    Alaska/Western Canada obs and discussion

    Per NWS Anchorage, I think the official site (Ted Stevens airport) hit 90. Previous all time record high was 85...and, on average, Anchorage only hits 80 once every 4 years. This is crazy.
  15. beavis1729

    Spring/Summer 2019 Complaint/Banter Thread

    Extreme warmth over southern AK yesterday. Many locations set all time record highs. Anchorage hit 90. They only hit 80 once every 4 years on average...but by the end of next week, they may have 7-10 80+ days this season already. Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 526 AM AKDT Fri Jul 5 2019 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... It has become a bit of a broken record to talk about the stationary upper-level ridge over the southern mainland and the upper-level trough upstream over the far western Bering; however, this continues to be the synoptic pattern over the forecast area as the upper-level rex block (high pressure north of low pressure) remains firmly in place across the north Pacific. Speaking of broken records, a plethora of daily and all-time records were set across southcentral and southwestern Alaska yesterday as both the ridge and the amount of subsidence (sinking air) reaches peak intensity. More on this in the Climate portion of the discussion. It was not hot and dry everywhere, though, as cooler temperatures prevailed for some coastal locations (e.g. Seward, Whittier, Kodiak), aided by either sea breezes or low stratus and patchy fog. Across the interior, scattered mid- and high-level clouds continue to rotate around the northern periphery of the high, extending from Bristol Bay east across the Alaska Range to the Copper River Basin. Along the coast, the low stratus and fog continue to spread out, with satellite imagery showing extensive low cloud cover moving west over the Barren Islands and along the eastern coastlines of Kodiak Island and the Kenai Peninsula. Farther west, low stratus and fog is also building across the eastern and central Bering and Aleutians in the wake of the slow- moving trough over the western Bering. For places such as Cold Bay and Saint Paul, visibility is reduced due to fog and mist with ceiling of only a couple hundred feet. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... Models are in fairly good agreement on the synoptic features and overall pattern. One forecast challenge to note is that some of the hi-res models, with the HRRR the most bullish, are suggesting the expansion of a band of low stratus over the Barren Islands rounding the southern coast of the Kenai Peninsula and moving north along Cook Inlet in response to an increasing up-inlet flow. Obviously, this scenario would throw a wrench in the cloud cover and temperature forecasts for locations along the inlet, Anchorage included. Confidence in this is rather low, however, as the stratus currently sitting west of Augustine Island overnight as yet to make any northward movement. && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Visibility may be slightly reduced at times through mid-morning as a light southerly wind advects smoke over Anchorage from the Swan Lake fire. The southerly wind is then expected to become westerly around mid-morning, pushing the smoke away from the airport complex. && .FIRE WEATHER... Near-record breaking temperatures will remain a possibility through the weekend as hot and dry conditions persist across southcentral and southwest Alaska. Generally, winds will continue to remain light and variable across interior locations, keeping dense smoke from the Swan Lake fire trapped within the valleys of the Kenai mountains. A southerly flow along the eastern coast of the Kenai Peninsula should help provide some relief, keeping the thickest of smoke north of coastal locations such as Seward through the evening hours. The dense smoke, however, looks to settle back in from Moose Pass south to Seward tonight as a light northerly flow develops. A developing sea breeze and up inlet flow will likewise help to scour out any lingering smoke around Homer this afternoon. Areas of smoke will also continue for locations south and east of the Montana Creek fire with a continued light northerly transport wind. As stated in previous discussions, the smoke may lift a bit during the afternoon and evening hours due to daytime heating and increasing mixing heights. However, continued subsidence and nighttime temperature inversions will also allow the smoke to settle back down and fan out over the Western Kenai and eastern Susitna Valley during the overnight hours. && .CLIMATE... The 4th of July 2019 was a day truly for the record books in the climate department. Numerous high temperature records were set, along with several ALL-TIME temperature records. Here is the list: Site.............Type.......New Record...Old Record (Date/Years) Anchorage Intl...ALL-TIME...90 degrees...85 degrees (Jun 14, 1969) Merrill Field....ALL-TIME...90 degrees...87 degrees (Jun 27, 1953) Palmer...........ALL-TIME...88 degrees...88 degrees (May 27, 2011) Kenai............ALL-TIME...89 degrees...87 degrees (Jun 26, 1953 & 116 year old record!---> Jun 18, 1903) King Salmon......ALL-TIME...89 degrees...88 degrees (Jun 27, 1953) ------------------------------------------------------------------- Anchorage Intl...Daily......90 degrees...77 degrees (1999) Merrill Field....Daily......90 degrees...77 degrees (1999) Palmer...........Daily......88 degrees...81 degrees (1979) Kenai............Daily......89 degrees...75 degrees (2003) King Salmon......Daily......89 degrees...84 degrees (1997) Homer............Daily......78 degrees...71 degrees (2018) Gulkana..........Daily......88 degrees...86 degrees (1958) Iliamna..........Daily......86 degrees...79 degrees (1949) && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)... Overall hot and dry conditions will continue the next few days. The center of the upper level ridge which brought all-time record highs to a number of locations over southern Alaska yesterday will remain directly overhead today and then begin to edge westward on Saturday. This will produce daily record high temperatures again today and many locations in southern Alaska. Areas inland will likely see temperatures close to what they were yesterday, but areas along Cook Inlet will see increased southwesterly winds which are expected to edge temperatures down slightly from yesterday`s levels, but remain hot. The Jekyll and Hyde nature of Alaska weather can be seen with the way this same high pressure is also causing widespread fog and stratus over the entire Gulf of Alaska. This has caused locations right along the coast to get fog and much cooler temperatures along the north Gulf Coast and eastern Kodiak Island. This fog and stratus will be quite persistent and is not expected to dissipate or move out of the area any time soon. This brings the forecast challenge the next few days for the Cook Inlet region up to and including Anchorage. With this pattern, the stratus usually pushes up Cook Inlet from the Southwest. The uncertainty with this is whether it will be able to do this due to the unusually hot temperatures. Will the temperatures cause enough vertical mixing to keep the inversions from developing strong enough to advect the stratus up the Inlet? Or will the stratus be able to ride the southwest flow up the Inlet (or at least part of it) and drastically drop temperatures in the marine airmass? I am going with the first option as it seems like the most likely situation in light of the past few days. The second scenario is worth watching. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday Night)... Record heat in King Salmon and Iliamna yesterday was caused by an incredibly strong upper level high that is parked over Southcentral. This dome of hot air extends westward across much of Southwest Alaska. With surface high pressure building off the Bering coast, breezy northeast winds are expected to persist across the Kuskokwim Delta today. The hot, offshore winds will allow temperatures across the Kuskokwim Delta to warm into the lower 80s today. Meanwhile further east, winds have diminished a bit across the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay areas, though temperatures are expected to once again top into the upper 80s to near 90 across the Lower Kuskokwim Valley, with mid to upper 80s expected across Bristol Bay. The upper level high will begin to slowly shift westward this weekend, moving over Southwest Alaska by Sunday afternoon. Fortunately it will also be slowly weakening by this point. The weakening is not expected to do much for high temperatures, which will remain roughly the same across most interior areas through the weekend. Offshore northeasterly winds will continue drying the area out as relative humidity values drop below 30 percent over the Lower Kuskokwim Valley by Sunday. One area that will be bucking the hot temperatures trend will be along the coast. Winds are expected to switch to out of the southwest along Bristol Bay by Saturday afternoon, persisting into Sunday. It will take until late Sunday night for the same to happen over the Kuskokwim Delta. The onshore winds in these areas will be like turning on the air conditioner, keeping high temperatures much more comfortably cool in the 70s by Sunday. The next few afternoons, it will be possible for showers to develop along the area mountains. Any showers may drift off the mountains into the nearby foothills, which will help quite a bit with locally cooling down the temperatures. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday Night)... There will be a few weak systems impacting portions of the area. The primary one will be the edge of the upper level high which, while producing offshore winds, will continue pushing most of the marine stratus and fog out away from the coast. The front over the western Bering will continue drifting westward and dissipate later today. A North Pacific low will track well south of the central and eastern Aleutians Saturday and Saturday night. Its northern periphery will skim through the islands, which may locally produce some light rain along with breezy easterly winds. A stronger North Pacific low will approach the western and central Aleutians Sunday afternoon into the overnight, before stalling just south of the islands late Sunday night into Monday morning. && .MARINE (Days 3 through 5)... (Sunday through Tuesday) ...Bering Sea and Aleutian Coastal Waters... High pressure will build westward from southcentral Alaska and influence the northeastern half of the region, with dry conditions expected. Further southwest, an area of low pressure passing along or south of the chain will spread some showers into the region. Otherwise, look for seas less than 10 feet and sustained winds to remain below gales (and possibly small craft as well) area-wide. ...Gulf of Alaska... High pressure will continue to dominate the weather through the period, with winds and waves remaining below small craft conditions. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)... (Sunday through next Thursday evening) The numerical guidance remains in good agreement for Sunday, before quickly diverging in model continuity for Monday and beyond. The main issue seems to be the temporal displacement of the ridge center, with the GFS model being the fastest and furthest northwest, as it has the low over the Seward Peninsula by Monday afternoon. The Canadian model, however, repositions the high pressure center to north of Fairbanks, while the ECMWF takes a middle ground approach and has it centered between Bethel and McGrath. A similar scenario across the southwestern Bering exists, with the GFS the quickest to undercut the ridge, and the other two models slower. The model spread only increases each day after that. In general, we prefer the Canadian solution for the ridge to break down slower, given the lack of any strong mid or upper level disturbances to break down the ridge or displace it as fast as some models suggest. Typically, when one of these weather patterns gets "locked in place" the models struggle with pattern change and are all too often too quick to make said change. This in turn keeps temperatures warmer for a longer period of time. Perhaps the bigger issue is they all agree on several disturbances rounding the top of the ridge, dropping south across Southcentral and into portions of southwest Alaska. Long range instability projections show more than enough instability for at least some thunderstorms to develop, with boosts of ascent accompanying each vort max, in a favored north to northeasterly wind flow, potentially raising wildfire concerns even more. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Dense Smoke Advisory: 121. MARINE...NONE. FIRE WEATHER...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TM CLIMATE...JPW SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JPW MARINE/LONG TERM...PD