beavis1729

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About beavis1729

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KDPA
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  • Location:
    Lake Zurich, IL

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  1. Verbatim it looks good on that map...but unfortunately the trend has been to shift the frozen precip a bit further NW with each successive model run. 30-50 more miles and Chicago misses out. Not saying that's going to happen, but the trends aren't the best. And, people need to remember that Alek's microclimate is like St. Louis...and I would be forecasting rain more often than not if I lived there too. UHI is bad enough here in Lake County. Take a look at a map of the growing season in Illinois; you'll see a little bubble in urban Chicago of a very long growing season, even longer than southern IL. It's unfortunate...but apparently the general public sees it as a good thing.
  2. Look, I know I'm not in the majority on this board...I get that. And I do agree with Josh that today is a nice wintry day...near 30 with about 2" of snow on the ground. But that's the bare minimum to qualify for a wintry day...just barely hanging on. If you use the criteria of a high temp <= 30F and 2+" of snow cover to define a "wintry day", we've only had about 5 of them since November 15th. So, 5 days out of 70. Not good. Believe me, it's exhausting to have to hope for every day to be below normal...and to know that if it gets close to freezing, you have to desperately wish for the sun not to come out, because otherwise the drip drip drip will start. I was up in northern WI snowmobiling with my son and brother this past weekend, and it was glorious. About 20 degrees during most of the day with pixie dust falling, all surfaces covered in snow, very short daylight...and about 10-15" of snow on the ground. Then it cleared out after sunset and rapidly dropped to 5 degrees, even with a fairly mild large-scale air mass in place. And, the locals all said that 2019-20 has been an incredibly mild winter so far. Even in the most boring winters up there, you can wake up every day between 12/15 and 2/28, and there will be snow on the ground and it will be wintry. No worries at all about melting; it's just a matter of how much below freezing it will be, and whether there is a ton of snow or a decent amount of snow. It's a sacred part of the calendar. The Cubs didn't win a World Series for 107 years, but it didn't stop people from hoping for it each year.
  3. I mean unacceptable compared to what winter should be (especially in those areas), not climo. You know, Currier and Ives, people ice fishing, etc. If we judged everything by climo, it would be pretty depressing in our part of the world. It’s just reality.
  4. Sorry that it’s 37F at MSP in January. That’s unacceptable. It’s even supposed to get into the 30s in the UP. What a joke.
  5. Right. I checked MSN, and they've been below zero every winter since records began. Quite a bit different than MKE...not a surprise I guess. https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/WI/Madison/extreme-annual-madison-low-temperature.php
  6. Unfortunately, because our winter climo is so bad, there have actually been 5 winters at MKE since 1870 where the temp never dropped below zero at all. I know your backyard may be different than MKE, but still...
  7. Yep. I started reading through the late January 2019 arctic outbreak thread...good stuff.
  8. Taken literally, the low of 24 could be right around sunrise or even a bit later. It could be much warmer several hours before that...in which case it could be raining. All this forecast does is predict the lowest temp (or highest temp) during the time period in question. It doesn't say how it got there.
  9. Thank you Yes...good for John! It will happen soon. After many years of putting up with me, my wife is on board too. It’s not even about subzero temps and crazy winds and 3 feet of snow on the ground. Just want to wake up in the morning, relax with a cup of coffee, and know that every morning during the heart of winter you can look outside at the wintry landscape, then take part in it. You should be able to count in winter during DJF...or at least Dec 15th to Feb 15th...year after year. Just like we count on summer in JJA. All of my complaints on this board come from this passion...it’s not personal. No hard feelings to anyone.
  10. I get your point...but it's probably more accurate to say 10/30 - 11/13 (2 weeks) was good, then 11/14 - 1/14 (9 weeks) was horrendous. Not exactly an equal balance...and of course the 2-week good period is a distant memory since snowpack retention is poor during the first two weeks of November. I know you know that...but timing matters too.
  11. I just don't understand how this winter could be thought of as anything close to what winter should be. I know these characterizations tend to be IMBY-focused...but IMBY in NE IL, we've had 3 separate snowfalls of 0.3" to 1.5" since November 15th...amounting to about 4" total (!!!)...and each one stayed on the ground for 1-2 days. And, several days in the 40s and 50s. That's winter?? Of course there is still time for things to change...but it has been brutal so far. One of the worst 11/15 - 1/15 periods in the past 20 years. Not sure how else to sugar coat it...
  12. It was chilly during the first half of November...but ever since then, it has been unacceptably mild and boring...going on for 8 weeks now. How is this not shocking? As I always say, people have incredibly low expectations for winter in this sub-forum. Not singling you out, of course...but it's maddening. Where is the cold air...especially the cold nights????? They have vanished. Since November 16th, 85% of the days at ORD had a low temp of 20F or higher...with the coldest temp of only 10F. And the 85% will continue to increase during the rest of January, if the medium-range guidance is to be believed. What is happening??? Heck, I would be upset if 50% of the days during this period had a low temp of 20F or higher...but 85%+ is a whole new level of *******.
  13. I know that. But as we have talked about a lot, it’s not just total snowfall that defines a winter. There are other categories like SDDs, average snowpack season (which for us is zero!), having a White Christmas, etc. I have a met degree and know our climo way too well. What I am saying is that our climo is horrible. I just wish there were some people on this board who understood the frustration, instead of constantly arguing about it and providing facts and details and comparisons and refuting everyone. It would be great to hear someone say “yeah brother, I feel your pain”. Am I really the only one?
  14. We have had several awful winters since the 90s. Off the top of my head: 2001-02, 2005-06, 2011-12, 2015-16...and likely 2019-20 unless we get a major turnaround. Probably more too, just can’t recall the exact winters at the moment. I continue to be amazed at how low the standards are for winter among people on this forum. Back to the Jan 17-18 storm...yeah, definitely worried about the model trends over the last 24-36 hours to erode the cold faster. Not good. But in this dumpster fire of a winter, it doesn’t surprise me. If we had a decent amount of snow cover around here, we could actually hold the cold temps a bit better. I think we have had one day since November 15th with a low temp colder than 20F. Completely laughable and unacceptable. I wish I wasn’t so pessimistic, but what reason is there to believe otherwise? I’m all ears...