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About beavis1729

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Lake Zurich, IL
  1. Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

    Sorry if my post came off that way. It is all out of frustration. We finally had a decent week of wintry weather, but then 14” of snow cover melted to 3” with patches in 3 days...and it sucks...and I figured others would think it sucks too...but then everyone just wants to talk about spring. Sure, there is talk and excitement on the board about individual snow events...but not winter as a season and a mood. The constant fight I’m referring to is that I am constantly trying to convince people to post and talk about winter in the winter thread...but no one wants to do it, and no one backs me up...and even worse, they troll you and talk about spring instead. So, it’s frustrating. Very simple. It also bothers me that people like Stebo (and many others) don’t understand and empathize with where winter lovers are coming from. If someone loves winter and is frustrated with our non-winter climo, you would think they could commiserate and find common understanding in the winter thread...as opposed to inflaming things and purposefully trying to piss people off. I don’t understand why this is so difficult to comprehend. The bottom line is that, several years ago, I hoped to come to this board to talk about winter, even in the other seasons too...thinking that others would want to do it too. But instead, I get ridiculed and trolled, just like the general public does with respect to winter. Why is this so difficult to understand? This is why I say Stebo and others are trolling...because they’re smart people...and so they can’t be oblivious to where I’m coming from. They are purposely trying to piss off those of us who love winter. Not sure why. Even if someone doesn’t relate and agree with what I’m saying, all I would like to hear is “I understand your frustration about our climo, and I agree”...and maybe chat about winters of yore like 1978-79 or 1898-99. But no one wants to do this. People only want to talk about Morch and melting snow and how a 14” snowfall that melts in 3 days is ok. Where are the winter lovers? It’s nothing personal against anyone. Honestly. And I would love to chat and have a beer with everyone on the board. It’s different when you’re sending comments on a computer screen. I just wished more people on this board loved the mood and harmony of winter like I do. But they don’t, so I keep fighting and hoping that my winter anecdotes and stories and hopes will convince people to change their mind. And I get frustrated when it doesn’t. When it snows in DJF, it’s frustrating to know that, more often than not, the snow will be gone a week later. There is no continuity and consistency of the seasonal mood, and it sucks. Very simple. Yes, it’s a meltdown...ha ha. In the NE forum, people melt down all the time...no big deal. But in our forum, I guess you’re not allowed to do that.
  2. I like this for a seasonal metric...the Winter Severity Index (WSI for short). To calculate WSI, you note one point for each day with 15" or more of snow on the ground, and one point for each day with a sub-zero low. Tower MN averages a 120 WSI each season, with the highest being around 185 in 1995-96. Chicago probably averages around 7 or 8. http://www.duluthnewstribune.com/sports/outdoors/2419368-deep-snow-sends-winter-severity-index-higher-across-northern-minnesota
  3. Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

    I understand what you’re saying. What bothers me the most is that people don’t have common courtesy and respect. Why is it so hard to understand that winter lovers come to this board to find common ground, not to fight it? 99% of the general public hates winter...and so chatting here used to be a respite from that...but now people on this board act just like they do. I am tired of arguing and defending myself about what winter is, that it’s a season and mood, not individual events. We have had 1-3 weeks of true winter on average during each of the past 3 seasons. It’s not winter. Why don’t people relate to this? Even if you don’t, then don’t post inflammatory comments in the winter thread, about wishing for spring. Whatever. I don’t go trolling in summer threads, hoping for 40 degrees days in June. It used to be fun to commiserate and post on this board, but now it’s a constant fight. Ridiculous and unfortunate. I guess the majority rules. If you live in INL or Fairbanks, I can understand wanting spring after 4 months of constant real winter. But we get one whole week of wintry conditions, and that’s too much for some people? Fine..,but we don’t need to hear about it in the winter thread.
  4. Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

    Thanks for trolling. It never ends. Your comment should be posted in the Spring or banter thread, but the habit of no common courtesy and respect on these boards continues.
  5. It’s 77 in Saint Louis, on February 15. What is going on? To those who think winter exists south of 45N in the Midwest...lolololololol. Not sure what else to say.
  6. Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

    Great, the warmanistas are out again in the winter long range thread. I guess we get one week of winter, and it’s too much for some people. Just ridiculous. Look, it’s no problem if people want to talk about the upcoming taste of spring from a meteorological perspective. But if you’re wishing for it, then please keep those opinions out of the winter thread. There is a banter/spring thread for that. Mods can delete this post if they want - who cares. I feel like I and a few select others have been fighting this for years. It’s a lost cause. Nothing personal against certain posters, but where is the common courtesy?
  7. February 8th-11th Overrunning Event

    It's good to see...but it's not really that impressive. It's how Winter should be. Interesting snowfall map. Pretty shocking to see that portions of MN have had less than 12" of snow all season...just awful. It just goes to show that, if you're away from the favorable side of the Great Lakes, winter snowfall is a crapshoot even at 45N.
  8. February 8th-11th Overrunning Event

    Good to see the 12z NAM showing about 0.5” of liquid over much of Chicago metro over the next 48 hours. Of course some of this has already fallen (since 6 am this morning)...but even 0.3” at 13:1 ratios means up to 4” of additional snow through the weekend. Picked up about 6” here with wave 1, now 10” on the ground.
  9. February 8th-11th Overrunning Event

    Ok, I need to clarify. I am talking about double digit totals for both waves for Chicago metro, not just wave 1. Agree that double digits with just wave 1 is not likely in all areas. However, if anyone in the 6-county metro area ends up with under 10” by the end of the weekend, it will be a disappointment.
  10. February 8th-11th Overrunning Event

    I actually think it is surprising. There were several models showing at least 0.8” liquid, which means 12” at 15:1 ratios.
  11. February 8th-11th Overrunning Event

    Wow, LOT is already in downgrade mode...not a good sign.
  12. February 8th-11th Overrunning Event

    For Wave 1, MKE is mentioning 18:1 ratios Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 303 PM CST Thu Feb 8 2018 .SHORT TERM... Tonight and Friday...Forecast Confidence is High... Light snow is falling across parts of Iowa along a baroclinic zone and strengthening upper jet. Returns showing up on radar in southwest WI are not hitting the ground, yet. Snow is expected to move into southwest WI around 6-7 pm. It will then spread across southern WI, pushing north of I-94 around 9 pm. Adjusted snowfall totals down a tad for counties not touching the Illinois state line, as those areas will be on the northern edge of the heaviest snowfall (down in Illinois). The greatest snowfall totals will be in far southern WI and across northern Illinois. This is where the strongest low level frontogenesis and warm air advection sets up. Lift is good with these features and the dendrite growth zone is up to 200mb. The majority of the snow will fall between midnight and 6 am. Tonight the low level jet will ramp up across Illinois, tightening up the baroclinic zone along the Wisconsin/Illinois state line, and providing strong warm air advection. Upper divergence increases after midnight as the right entrance region passes overhead. Snowfall rates could be around 1 inch per hour after midnight. The NAM continues to come in with aggressive precip amounts. Other models are pretty consistent with the axis of greatest precip across northern Illinois. Some lake enhancement is possible with northeast winds Friday morning, but an organized lake effect band is not expected. Delta T values are 13. Light snow will likely linger in eastern WI through Friday morning, and maybe into the afternoon along the lake. It looks like snow to liquid ratios will be around 18:1. This is a moderate consistency snow and winds may be just enough on Friday to create a little drifting.
  13. February 8th-11th Overrunning Event

    Perhaps...but as others have pointed out (which I generally agree with), LOT is probably banking on ratios. While it's certainly disappointing that the NAM has reduced its max QPF to about 1.00" for both waves instead of 1.25"+ from prior runs...even a relatively modest 0.80" of liquid would equate to 12" based on 15:1 ratios.
  14. February 8th-11th Overrunning Event

    Here are the approximate 60-hr precip totals on the IL/WI border, per the 18z models. Can worry about the following 36 hours (Wave 2) later; wanted to focus on Wave 1 for now. NAM: 1.1" 3-km NAM: 0.8" GFS: 0.4" Using 14:1 ratios (which seems reasonable at this point), that means a snowfall range of 5" to 15" for Wave 1. Just reinforces that it's still too far out to pin anything down. Should have better sampling for 00z runs tonight, at which time the goal posts should narrow a bit.