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About beavis1729

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    Lake Zurich, IL
  1. ORD normal for today is 62/42. Since today's low was 48, the high only needs to hit 57. This already happened...so they've banked another above normal day today...crazy.
  2. Laramie WY dropped to -2 this morning, shattering the old record of 7 set in 2009. Records go back to 1948. This has to be Laramie's earliest sub-zero temp on record...or close to it.
  3. Yep. Plus, I don't think "first freeze" is the best metric to use for these types of discussions. Although first freeze is an easy thing to calculate, it's not always representative of the larger picture (i.e. there could be several cool nights in 30s but if none of then happens to be 32 or lower, it will seem like a warm Fall when in reality it wasn't...or the opposite situation where there happened to be an early freeze...but then most nights were 40s/50s...in which case the avg Sep/Oct min temp is warm despite the early freeze). I am more talking about consistently cool mornings in the Fall. It just seems recently (say 2000-present) that it takes forever to get cool Fall mornings at ORD...like until mid-November. And it's even worse in downtown Chicago. They probably haven't dropped into the 40s all season...and may not do so until the 3rd or 4th week of October. Downtown Chicago probably has the longest growing season in all of Illinois, which is crazy when you think about it. Case in point - normal low for ORD today is 46, yet ORD hasn't dropped below 48 all season...and probably won't for another week. Considering the "normal distribution" of daily lows...for every min temp of 50, you'd expect one of 42...but that hasn't been happening in recent years. 80-90% of Sept/Oct mornings seem to range from "slightly above normal" to "much above normal". ORD just doesn't get any normal cool Fall mornings consistently over the past several years...not just 2017. I hope that makes sense. Not meant to be a "complaining" situation...just strange. Can it all be UHI?? Or is something else going on?
  4. Thanks Hoosier - good to see I'm not losing my mind.
  5. Yep, my bad...was 48 on 10/1. The thing about UHI these days is that it's not just the immediate areas around ORD/tarmac, MDW, or lakefront...it's the entire 6 county metro area. I guess that's what 10 million people will do. Funny that you hear the NWS in Alaska talk about UHI in Fairbanks relative to surrounding areas. I guess it doesn't take much!
  6. So far this Fall, the lowest temp at ORD has only been 49. And, it looks like temps won't drop below 49 for the next week or so, unless one of the nights clears out more than expected. Seems like in recent years, it's very difficult to get cold overnight temps around here in September/October. Part of it could be UHI, of course. The normal low for today (based on 1981-2010 data) is 47. I seem to remember in the 1980s and 1990s where it would often drop into the 30s in early-mid October, and the 20s by late October. Not every day, just some days. The peak leaf change seems later now (October 20 instead of October 10), bugs seem to stick around for longer into the Fall, etc. Just some musings...not sure how scientifically valid it is.
  7. Good question. I have to imagine that 9/21 is now the new record latest "annual max" date for your area. I got the Chicago numbers from NWS LOT; they created a page with this info.
  8. MKE is up to 94. This is the latest date on record with a temp of 94 or higher. The previous latest date of 94+ was 9/15/1939 (max of 99).
  9. So far, the max temp for 2017 at ORD has been 95 (on June 12). If it hits 96 today, it would be the latest in the season that an annual max has ever occurred. Previous latest date was September 14 (in 1893, 1915, 1927). I'm honestly surprised that it has actually occurred in September before.
  10. Somewhat bewildered that ORD and/or MKE haven't issued heat advisories. Perhaps the technical criteria haven't been met...but when it's out of season, there should be additional considerations...similar to being more lenient on the first winter weather advisory for the first snowfall of the season. I believe Las Vegas and Phoenix WFOs have different Heat Advisory/Heat Warning criteria depending on the time of year.
  11. Crazy that ORD is already 89 at 11 AM, and there hasn't even been any mixing yet. Dew is still elevated (67).
  12. UHI is a huge pet peeve of mine. Not worth diverting the thread...but there is something wrong when humans can alter their environment so much that temperatures can vary by 15+ degrees in two similar locations with the same airmass. You most often see this in late season heatwaves (like now), or sunny late fall days (when temps drop like a rock in rural areas but stay up in urban areas due to residual warmth from the sunlight), or of course winter days with snow cover. Anyway...I was shocked at how warm it got at ORD yesterday. It was partly/mostly cloudy nearly all day, yet still hit 94...on September 21 no less. The only explanation I can think of is "left-over" UHI (warm start - low temp of 72), combined with mixing in the afternoon that resulted in lower dews around 60. Dry ground too? Winds never exceeded 10 mph...and you'd have thought that strong S/SW winds would be needed to create such warm temps. If the mixing occurs again today and skies remain mostly sunny as they are now...then, despite slightly lower temps aloft, you'd have to think ORD will hit 95 today. Time will tell.
  13. 94 at ORD breaks today's record of 92 set in 1970. Two consecutive daily record highs. Today is the 3rd hottest day so late in the season, behind 99 on 9/29/53 and 94 on 10/6/63.
  14. Here are the 10 warmest days in Chicago, September 20th and later. Strangely enough, the two warmest days are later in the season than most of the other eight days. Just goes to show how "jumpy" outlier/extreme events can be. 99 on 9/29/1953 94 on 10/6/1963 92 on 9/30/1971, 9/28/1953, 9/22/1956, 9/21/1970 91 on 9/27/1971, 9/24/1891, 9/23/1937, 9/20/1931
  15. May not be worth it to get too caught up in these details at this point...but on the 12z Euro ensemble map above, the mean crosses 60W at about 17.4N. However, based on extrapolation from a loop of the satellite images over the past few hours, it looks like Irma will cross 60W at about 17.2N. In other words, Irma already appears to be slightly south of the 12z Euro ensemble mean track.