beavis1729

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About beavis1729

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    Lake Zurich, IL

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  1. When I said "shocking" upthread, it wasn't so much related to expected future snowfall or any IMBY weenie view about winter fading away. It's from a climate/environmental perspective. People can debate how much of the change is being driven by UHI vs. background warming...but either way it's very bad when January mins increase 5F over 30 years. What will it be like in the next 50-100 years? Take your pick - either humans are significantly altering climo in specific locations significantly via development and parking lots and dark surfaces and buildings (and it's only getting worse)...or there is background warming happening very quickly. It also doesn't really matter if the general public appreciates warmer mins in January. Perhaps they would...but it doesn't fix the concern.
  2. Thanks RC...I guess it’s good to know that RFD’s numbers are much less dramatic, and therefore nearly all of the increase is driven by UHI...although perhaps warmer lake temps could come into play too. But even a 0.3F increase in the annual mean temperature at RFD is noteworthy over such a short period of time. It’s a slow and steady bleed. Another piece of data, if I have my numbers right: ORD’s average low during mid January was 13F (1961-1990 normals), and is now 18F (1991-2020 normals). So, an increase of 5F over 30 years. Just speechless...
  3. Wow. Unfortunately, your post is probably the most shocking in this forum's history, but will get overlooked by many. Probably deserves its own thread. Chicago is becoming St. Louis at night. This should also be a huge news story for the general public. Does anyone know the increase in average annual temp at ORD, after switching to the 1991-2020 normals?
  4. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 159 AM AKDT SAT APR 10 2021 ...RECORD LOW MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SET AT FAIRBANKS YESTERDAY... FAIRBANKS RECORDED A LOW TEMPERATURE OF -27 DEGREES YESTERDAY. THIS SHATTERS THE PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD OF -16 DEGREES SET IN 1911. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY WAS ONLY 3 DEGREES. THAT BREAKS THE PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD FOR COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 11 DEGREES SET IN 1911. YESTERDAY WAS ALSO THE LATEST IN THE SEASON FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR FAIRBANKS ON RECORD. THE PREVIOUS LATEST WAS APRIL 7TH IN 1966.
  5. Bettles reported a 6am AKDT temperature of -38F (-38.9C). This is a new record for Bettles for the month of April. Previous record was -37F (-38.3C) set April 7, 1986. Climate observations at Bettles since May 1944. As expected, the Fairbanks 12Z upper air sounding showed the coldest April low-level airmass on record (since 1948): lowest 1000-500mb thickness 4857gpm; lowest 1000-850mb thickness 1174gpm; lowest 925mb temp -26.7C. Nome airport low temp Friday morning of (at least) -20F (-28.9C) is not a daily record (-24F, -31.1C in 1924) but this is the latest in the spring with a temp of -20F or lower in 44 years: -21F on April 12, 1977. http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2021/04/arctic-blast.html
  6. An already impressive winter in interior Alaska is going out with a bang, with snow and cold. 2-day snowfall of 13.2" on April 3-4 in Fairbanks, which brought the snow depth to 40". This is the highest snow depth since 1993. Snow depth on 4/7/2021 was still 38", 2nd highest so late in the season (only 1991 was greater). Could be a bad year for flooding and river ice break-up. Fairbanks just set a new record for consecutive days under 40F: (1) 179 days: 10/11/2020 to 4/7/2021 - still active (2) 176 days: 10/3/1965 to 3/27/1966 (3) 171 days: 10/8/1994 to 3/27/1995 With clear skies and fresh snow cover, Fairbanks dropped to -24 on 4/6/2021, which is the 3rd coldest temp on record so late in the season (-24 on 4/7/1986 and -32 on 4/10/1911). It was even colder at some other sites: -36 at Jim River DOT (Mile 138 Dalton Highway); -34 Norutak Lake RAWS; -33 Bettles. There is an even colder airmass lurking for this upcoming weekend, where Fairbanks could hit -25 or -30. Normal temps for this weekend are 40/16. Per Rick Thoman: "By several measures, the Utqiaġvik 00Z Thu RAOB records the coldest April low-level airmass on record (since 1948). Lowest 850mb temp -35.5C; lowest 1000-850mb thickness 1138 gpm; lowest 1000-500mb thickness 4803 gpm." http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2021/04/even-colder-on-way.html http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2021/04/extreme-cold-approaches.html
  7. An already impressive winter in interior Alaska is going out with a bang, with snow and cold. 2-day snowfall of 13.2" on April 3-4 in Fairbanks, which brought the snow depth to 40". This is the highest snow depth since 1993. Snow depth on 4/7/2021 was still 38", 2nd highest so late in the season (only 1991 was greater). Could be a bad year for flooding and river ice break-up. Fairbanks just set a new record for consecutive days under 40F: (1) 179 days: 10/11/2020 to 4/7/2021 - still active (2) 176 days: 10/3/1965 to 3/27/1966 (3) 171 days: 10/8/1994 to 3/27/1995 With clear skies and fresh snow cover, Fairbanks dropped to -24 on 4/6/2021, which is the 3rd coldest temp on record so late in the season (-24 on 4/7/1986 and -32 on 4/10/1911). It was even colder at some other sites: -36 at Jim River DOT (Mile 138 Dalton Highway); -34 Norutak Lake RAWS; -33 Bettles. There is an even colder airmass lurking for this upcoming weekend, where Fairbanks could hit -25 or -30. Normal temps for this weekend are 40/16. Per Rick Thoman: "By several measures, the Utqiaġvik 00Z Thu RAOB records the coldest April low-level airmass on record (since 1948). Lowest 850mb temp -35.5C; lowest 1000-850mb thickness 1138 gpm; lowest 1000-500mb thickness 4803 gpm." http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2021/04/even-colder-on-way.html http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2021/04/extreme-cold-approaches.html
  8. RFD hit 21 this morning, DKB 19, ARR 16. 22 here. Pretty impressive for April 2nd, especially considering there's no snow cover upstream in the Upper Midwest.
  9. First, a disclaimer: Not everyone needs to agree with me. I fully understand that. But, please...just let people vent. Yes, this is very emotional for me. It may not be for others, and that's fine. To your question...it's the lack of sustained cold, and the lack of consistency. Winter is supposed to be a season, not a 3-5 week period. During the holidays and the shortest daylight of the year, we had essentially zero winter. I'm talking Thanksgiving through Jan. 10 or so. For example - from 12/1 to 12/28 at ORD, there was no measurable snow, and even at night the temp rarely dropped below 20. So, that's essentially 28 days in a row without winter, when the days are the shortest. It's fine if it's not 100% wintry during that period...but we had nearly 0%. That's a big deal. I've said many times that total snowfall is not our issue here. It's temps. Being at 42N and needing everything to go right is very stressful and draining. It's not fun having to wake up every day and hope for everything to go right in order for winter to exist. It should just "be". It's just not good. The most frustrating thing is that, even in the depth of winter, our normal high is 30. So, half the days are 30 or warmer, assuming a normal distribution. When you go outside in winter, it should feel really cold. Not just "chilly", but cold. We get occasional cold outbreaks here, but not sustained cold. Like a high of 20 and a low of 0. Not crazy Fairbanks or Barrow cold...just typical winter cold...where you need and want to wear a hat and gloves to be outside. No one, including me, is denying that we had solid winter for 5 weeks...including a very good 3-week period. But winter is 13 weeks, not 5. The same thing happened in Jan 2019. We had a good 2-3 week period, including a great arctic outbreak...but then 2 days later it's back in the 40s...in early Feb. And, after GHD I in Feb 2011, we had a 22" snow depth which completely melted within 2 weeks. That shouldn't happen; it's maddening. Typical days in Jan should be 15-20 in the afternoon, with lows 0-5...and typical days in Dec & Feb should be in the 20s, with lows 10-15. Nothing crazy...just "regular" cold that can be counted on. Winter is supposed to be cold. Maybe you get a few mild days in the 30s, with an occasional 40...but there are just too many days with highs of 35+ in DJF. There should not be puddles and liquid outside during winter. Here is the ideal winter pattern. No, it doesn't need to be Barrow or Fairbanks (and I have never said that)...but simply seasons in seasons. Nov 20 - 30: highs in 30s, ground starts to freeze...laying the groundwork for met winter to begin Dec 1 - 10: 5-10" of snowfall, most days in the 20s or colder, occasional day in the 30s Dec 11 - 20: 5-10" of snowfall, ponds & lakes start to freeze...most days in the 20s, very rarely gets above freezing Dec 21 - Jan 31: 10-15" of snowfall, looks like a winter wonderland...even if some years are wintrier than others. Must have a White Christmas - no compromise. Feb 1 - 15: 5-10" of snowfall, snow depth getting close to peak, everything still frozen. Temps warming a bit...but most days still in the 20s. Feb 16 - 28: 5" of snowfall, *gradual* melting...most days 25-35, but still no days 40+. Ponds and lakes slowly come out of hibernation, but still frozen. March 1 - 15: 5" of of snowfall, melting going pretty strong by Mar 15. Ponds and lakes finally thaw around Mar 15. All snow gone by Mar 21, the first day of astronomical spring. Then full-out spring can begin after that...
  10. Yep...hope you have a good time. Several weeks ago, we planned a trip for mid-March in northern WI, to enjoy some relaxation and dog sledding. Will probably get cancelled due to the current below-normal snow cover and expected mild temps coming up over the next 7-10 days.
  11. Ugh...the whiplash of winter to non-winter is so hard to take. If it happens in late March, ok...but it shouldn't happen during DJF. But every year, it does...it's just a matter of when. It's like people are ok with 3 weeks of good winter, and then no more. Wish we could have gradual transitions and more consistent winter, instead of "all or nothing". We got about 25" of snow in 3 weeks, with an average temp of around 10F...then the next 3 weeks will see 0" of snow with an average temp around 35F. It's like a switch flips, even though it's still Feb. Why can't there be a gradual transition...like maybe we get 10-15" instead of 25" in the next 3 weeks...and an average temp around 20F instead of 10F?? This is why our winter climo is so frustrating. We have 3 weeks of good winter...but DJF is a 13-week period. We work so hard to get wintry weather for a decent period...the lakes and ponds froze pretty well...then when winter finally sets in completely, it just vaporizes. This doesn't happen in the summer. In JJA, it's either "mostly summer" or "total summer" on any given day. But in winter, it often ranges from "no winter" to "good winter"...and it just switches on a dime. There is no room for error, or gadual transitions; any "above average temp" period melts snow and stops lakes from freezing, even during the heart of winter. It just sucks. So frustrated that there's no consistency. We've lost nearly 18" of dense snow in 7 days...winter just disappeared. I know it's late in the winter...but it's still Feb...and these episodes keep reinforcing our bad climo, which I can't bring myself to accept. It's not really winter when the normal high in early Dec and late Feb is around 40F. It's so emotionally draining. It's always something. It's like we have 6 weeks of "core winter"...but you can't even count on that, as evidenced by the 50s/60s that occurred in each of the past two Decembers, near Christmas...when daylight is the shortest. Before Dec 15th, the lake is too warm, and the source region hasn't cooled off enough. Then, after Feb 1st, the source region is colder...but then you have to hope for clouds if the temp is > 25F so that snow doesn't melt, because the sun angle is getting higher. And you need the nights to be clear, to get radiational cooling and preserve the snow...and have a lower start to the warm-up during the following day. My point is that it shouldn't need to be this difficult. If we actually had winter from Dec 1 - Jan 10, it would have been easier to take what has happened over the past week. We basically had 5 weeks of winter this season...with the last 3 weeks being really good. Because there have only been 5 weeks of winter, I want winter to continue into March, to make up for the lack of winter in December. I value duration over intensity...13 weeks of each season, not 5. Summer is good when the calendar says it, Fall is good when the calendar says it...but let's have seasons in seasons. Temps above freezing in the daytime is not winter.
  12. Great post, ChicagoWx. Crazy to see that ORD and RFD both have more snow on the ground than INL...and that ORD has had 12.5" more snow than RFD so far. Bismarck ND has only had 13.7" of snow for the season. Even less than that, in parts of ND north and west of there...but I can't find any climo sites in that area with snowfall data. Williston ND has probably had less than 10"...hard to believe. The frustration I've always had with our climo isn't so much average snowfall...although of course 50" would be nice instead of 40". It's the lack of consistency, due to the fact that our average temps are just too warm. Even in January (assuming a normal distribution), half of our days are in the 30s or warmer. But even I must admit that western ND would be much much worse. Average DJF temps are definitely colder than here, but there are so many ups and downs due to the chinook. That would drive me crazy. And, there's just too little snowfall there. I've been to Theodore Roosevelt National Park, in that area...a great place in the warm season.
  13. Rick Thoman @AlaskaWx · Feb 21 Nerd alert: 500mb low down to 460dm just west of Prince Patrick Island, NWT, Canada at 12UTC Feb 21, 2021. That's a serious "cold low aloft"! #Arctic @Climatologist49 @WorldClimateSvc
  14. 18" snow depth here, 4th highest seasonal max on record IMBY. Here's the Top 4, based on where I lived at the time: (1) 24" on 12/26/2000, Glen Ellyn IL (2) 22" on 2/5/2011, Carol Stream IL (3) 21" on 2/4/2015, Lake Zurich IL (4) 18" on 2/16/2021, Lake Zurich, IL I imagine yesterday's 28" depth in Evanston (?) is the 3rd highest IL seasonal peak on record. Antioch had a 38" depth in the 1978-79 winter, and I believe some places were around 30" in December 2000.