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beavis1729

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About beavis1729

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KDPA
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Lake Zurich, IL

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  1. beavis1729

    Winter Storm - February 11-13, 2019

    Congrats Bo!! Incredible stuff. You should become a COOP observer for the NWS. You may set all kinds of snow records for MI. I think MQT's record depth is 63" in March 1990; not sure about the MI state record. Ok, back to my self-imposed exile.
  2. beavis1729

    Fall/Winter 2018-19 Complaint/Banter Thread

    This is a complete disgrace. My kids build snow forts last week and go sledding and ice skating, when we finally get some wintry weather in this joke of a season...and then it’s all gone. 15” of snow cover melted in 2 days. It would be bad enough to lose 5” in 2 days during DJF; even that should never happen. Last week, it looked like the ponds and lakes may actually freeze solid for a long time, until mid March like it should...but now they are melting out already. How can this happen? It was -27 four days ago, and the lakes are melting now????? It’s completely unacceptable. There is no other way to describe it. When a pattern relaxes or turns “unfavorable”, it should mean a modest 5-10” of snowfall over a couple week period, and mild temps in the 20s. Then, the good/decent 2 week periods should be 15”+ of snow with cold temps, like what happened in the second half of January. It should never get above freezing in DJF. Doesn’t need to be below zero consistently like last week...but winter is a season, not a “series of events”. I am so sick of people’s expectations being so low. We should not have to hope for the EPO, AO, ENSO, etc. to behave a certain way in order to have wintry weather. We have had 3 weeks of winter out of 9 DJF weeks this season so far. That is not winter. And parts of the Chicago area have only had 2 weeks, as they missed out on the November storm. Are there ever any summers where only 2 weeks out of 9 feel like summer???? In most summers (June 10th to Sep 10th), 90% of the days feel like summer. In summer, people don’t worry about needing the right pattern or indices to get summer weather. In July and August, it’s summerlike because the calendar says it’s summer. Very simple!!! It’s always something. In early December, when you would think it’s time to get excited about winter due to the short days, normal highs are still around 40. That is not winter...so what is the point of getting excited about the short days?? Then in late January, the daylight is getting noticeably longer. In February, the sun angle increases. Of course it doesn’t mean that snow can’t stick...but it has a big impact on snow retention. In February, there is noticeable snow melt on sunny days with highs in the 20s. That shouldn’t happen. So then we are left with 6 weeks of what you would think is decent, stable winter. But even during this time, highs in the 30s or warmer are fairly common...which is ridiculous. Good luck retaining snow with those temps. Even our coldest time of year isn’t winter!!! But nobody gives a crap. How can people just accept this? How can people keep pretending that we have winter? Sure, we have “occasional wintry weather”, but not winter. There is a huge difference. What is the point of having any interest in winter. It is a false hope...every single ****** year. I am so so so angry I could scream at everyone in the entire state. It is an abomination. Good bye all. I cannot take this anymore. May be back next winter, but probably not. Not worth the anxiety and trouble. Best wishes to all of you. This is nothing personal against anyone. I just can’t take the inner anger and sadness anymore. And yes, I would like to move...but I need to support my family here in this ******* for at least 10 more years. Trying to save as much as possible to leave sooner.
  3. beavis1729

    Fall/Winter 2018-19 Complaint/Banter Thread

    Hmmm...maybe because it’s winter?? Do people root for freezing temps in early August?? It’s not very complicated...same ******* with the warministas every year. Please just let seasons be seasons. 3 months of winter, 3 months of summer. Enjoy the weekend and the super bowl...at least it’s something to take our mind off this garbage.
  4. beavis1729

    Winter 2018-19 Medium/Long Range Discussion

    Word has it that the EPS has a pretty strong -EPO in the long range. If so, it could be a decent pattern in the Midwest. Just need to get through this disaster over the next few days. 3 weeks of decent winter weather gets completely wiped out in 2 days...unfortunately it’s par for the course in our horrible climo south of 45N.
  5. beavis1729

    Winter 2018-19 Medium/Long Range Discussion

    Ha ha, you would think so...but our winter climo is horrible, meaning that we are left to actually be appreciative when it actually feels like winter during DJF. Even though we have had a decent 2 week stretch in the second half of January, winter is supposed to be 13 weeks, not 2. The first 7 weeks of met winter were a disaster, and now we have to deal with a huge thaw when it took so much to go right in order to get our winter landscape to where it is today. Such is life here...just a fact, not complaining about anything. It makes one appreciate any winter-like pattern here when it does occur.
  6. beavis1729

    January 24 - 31 Cold Blast

    Very impressive
  7. beavis1729

    January 24 - 31 Cold Blast

  8. beavis1729

    January 24 - 31 Cold Blast

    Made a late rally here, dropped to -27. And I wouldn’t call MBY a great radiator. Decent at best. ORD was kind of caught between a rock and a hard place. Too much west wind, and there was no colder air to advect in, given that the background airmass was warming significantly. Yeah, it would have been helpful for them to radiate for longer...but the winds did die down at many nearby areas at least for a little while, with a corresponding temp drop. So why not at ORD? It’s really hard to physically explain how ORD only managed -21, especially with the great starting point of -14 at 6 pm yesterday...one of the coldest temps in the area at that time. If you would have asked me at 6 pm last night, I would have said 50% chance of hitting -28, 90% chance of -25, 99% chance of -23. What it tells me is that ORD is an even worse radiator than we thought. Would it have really mattered if winds were calmer most of the night? I guess we will never know. Places in northern WI that warmed up to near 0 yesterday afternoon still fell to -30 this morning. Nice to see new all time record lows at MLI and RFD.
  9. beavis1729

    January 24 - 31 Cold Blast

    MLI dropped 18 degrees in the past 6 hours, and ORD only 3. Funny how microclimates and local conditions can vary over relatively short distances.
  10. beavis1729

    January 24 - 31 Cold Blast

    Yep. Still 10 hours of cooling time, but I think the winds need to diminish by midnight at both RFD and ORD in order to have a shot at the record. -23 at ARR with 5 mph winds. -20 at FEP with 3 mph winds...I figured it would be colder there by now.
  11. beavis1729

    January 24 - 31 Cold Blast

    Looks like ORD is still -15 at 7pm. Need the winds to start lightening up, as there really isn't any significantly colder air to advect from elsewhere. RFD down to -19, as the winds have dropped off to 9 mph. DPA and DKB -17. Today is the coldest day in Rockford's history. Daily average temp -19 (-13/-25), breaking the old record of -18.5 (-14/-23) on 1/18/1994. And the record could be broken even more if RFD drops below -25 before midnight.
  12. beavis1729

    January 24 - 31 Cold Blast

    RAP is actually trending a bit colder. 22z RAP shows low temps of -37 at RFD and -33 at ORD. Actual modeled temps on the RAP may be overdone, but I think the trends are important. To Stebo’s post above, the NWS point forecast for some locations in northern MN (near INL) is down to -51.
  13. beavis1729

    January 24 - 31 Cold Blast

    20z RAP shows -21 at 9 pm and -25 at midnight, then bottoming at -32 at 7 am. On paper, it seems like ORD has a good shot at the record. Assuming -14 at 4 pm, it needs to drop one degree per hour over the following 15 hours in order to hit -29.
  14. beavis1729

    January 24 - 31 Cold Blast

    2 pm temps: -16 ORD -14 RFD -14 here
  15. beavis1729

    January 24 - 31 Cold Blast

    Probably a couple reasons why ORD is colder than MLI: west winds covering less of a snow field before arriving at MLI, and H85 temps are a bit warmer at MLI.
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