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beavis1729

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    Lake Zurich, IL

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  1. See below: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1258 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move south of the region today. A powerful arctic cold front will cross the area Friday morning. Frigid arctic high pressure will build in from the west Friday into Saturday. A warm front will lift across the area Sunday. Weak low pressure will track north of the area Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 1230pm update... The Blizzard Warning was issued in response to the blowing snow and whiteout threat in the warned area. Snow accumulations will be an inch or less. The blowing snow threat will be in open terrain where whiteouts are most likely to affect motorists. Discussions with state and county authorities involved in public safety this week, and after similar events in past years, have favored this stronger alert/messaging. The arctic front arrives later tonight with plunging temperatures, blowing snow and dangerous wind chills. The front crosses after midnight and is expected to be exiting the state by 4am. Temperatures plummet with the frontal passage and continue to fall relentlessly into Friday night. Winds kick up immediately with frontal passage with gusts reaching the 35 to 45 mph range. Blowing snow will start with the frontal passage and continue all day and into Friday night. The worst will be in Aroostook County where the Blizzard Warning was issued due to the blowing snow/ground blizzard threat in open terrain. Wind chills drop steadily all day into the evening, reaching below minus 50F by late afternoon in the Saint John Valley and dropping towards minus 45F at Bangor by late evening. Interestingly, using CIPS analogs, a top analog is the Jan 14, 1988 event when Caribou last experienced a wind chill of less than minus 50F. The lowest recorded wind chill at Caribou was minus 58.6F in 1951.
  2. It will be a bit chilly over the next couple of days at Mount Washington NH. 850 temps near -40C. Today Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 9. Wind chill values as low as -23. Very windy, with a west wind 40 to 45 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Tonight Snow showers likely, mainly between midnight and 3am. The snow could be heavy at times. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -27. Wind chill values as low as -53. Very windy, with a west wind 55 to 60 mph increasing to 65 to 70 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 85 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Friday Mostly sunny and cold, with a temperature falling to around -37 by 5pm. Very windy, with a northwest wind around 70 mph, with gusts as high as 90 mph. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around -38. Wind chill values as low as -91. Very windy, with a northwest wind 70 to 75 mph increasing to 80 to 85 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 105 mph.
  3. Yeah, I've been tracking that over the past couple of days. When was the last time we've seen a 462 dm thickness anywhere on a NA map, and a 468 dm thickness in the US? I know we often see very intense short-lived cold outbreaks here (late January 2019 is Exhibit A - ugh). But what will happen in New England is crazy - basically 36 hours of intense cold, then an incredibly quick warm-up to normal+ as if it never happened.
  4. Thanks for responding, as always. I don't mean underperformed relative to NWS forecasts - I just mean underperformed relative to what should have happened given the situation and time of year. And, the fact that cloud cover really wasn't an issue makes it even worse. Unfortunately UHI always kills things, even in the suburbs. We just don't radiate well unless there is a very deep snowpack and the high is in an absolutely perfect place...and, even then, it's not always guaranteed. I thought we'd easily hit -8 to -10 imby, but we only dropped to -5. Many people here seem to care about forecasts...and obviously you need to at the NWS. But I only care about outcomes. I'd love nothing more than a forecast of 2" of snow to go horribly wrong, and we end up with 10". After looking into this further, the airmass itself wasn't really that impressive - thicknesses were only around 520. So, my expectations may have been a bit too high for this morning. I just hoped we were set up for an optimal starry night with some crazy temp drops - but it just didn't happen. Our MSN poster had a low of -17, with some -20s nearby...but nothing close to that here. That's what I'm referring to. Dare I bring up the 1/31/2019 debacle at ORD...4 years ago today.
  5. Unfortunately, the cold actually underperformed in N IL by roughly 3-5 degrees, likely due to UHI and a bit of unexpected cloud cover. ORD only hit -1, and it was -5 here. -9 in DKB and -11 at RFD. I shouldn’t even need to say this since it should be a given…but, yes, all of these areas have snow cover.
  6. I hear you, and appreciate your response. The main reason I post on here is for the commiseration with fellow winter lovers...not so much the forecast details. In a society where cold and snow lovers are essentially banished, I figured a forum like this is a good place to chat with like-minded individuals. But I guess that's only true up to a point. It's like a die-hard Cubs fan who pines for a World Series - you drown your sorrows with fellow Cubs fans and complain/hope each year will be better than the last, even though you have no control...and then the magic happened after 108 years. And I do immensely respect what you and the others do at the NWS. Deploying science and good communication skills to protect the public - a very noble combination. When I was finishing up my meteorology degree at NIU in 1995, I volunteered at LOT that summer...which is when the insane heat wave occurred. I had the humble opportunity to broadcast over NOAA weather radio - kind of a weenie and nerdy thing I guess, but it was one of my most enjoyable summers. I also worked construction outdoors that summer - so being in the comfortable AC in the Romeoville office felt good too. I remember Ratzer and Merzlock were there - I assume they've retired.
  7. It’s not black and white - it’s a balance. Just seems strange that 3.5 inches “falls” continuously over 12 hours (not just in the first 2-3 hours), but the depth after those same 12 hours is only 2”. Part of the frustration is our climo. If ORD’s average seasonal snowfall is only 37” even with this way of measuring, it only feels like 30-35” actually fell when you look at the depth after it snows. Example - If we receive 15” of snow in December, there should be at least 10” on the ground at the end of the month. Of course there is some melting and compaction…but the depth should build up throughout the winter. We don’t live in Dallas. It’s so hard to maintain a clean snowpack here…and today just sent me over the edge because we finally get the first decent snow of the season…but we can’t even maintain snow cover while the snow is still falling! I’d even be upset if 3.5” dropped to a 2” depth within 5 days after the snow ended…but what happened today is just ridiculous. It’s January, not April. If snow can’t manage to stay on the ground *while it’s actually falling*…then, yes, that should be considered when determining how much snow is recorded in the books. It’s just a rant from a frustrated weenie - not a big deal. Just ******* tired of dreadful winters over and over again. I grew up in the 70s and 80s - that is what I’m used to.
  8. This seems inflated, a result of IMO poor standard operating procedure for snowfall measurements. Should be every 12 hours, not 6. If snow depth is down to 2” within basically 12 hours of an event starting, how can a reasonable person say that 3.5” actually fell? If the snow compacts/melts 24 hours after the event ends, that’s another thing. But during the event…it just doesn’t pass the reasonability test. Again, I’m not questioning the measurer - just the SOP. When one looks at the historical records after today’s snowfall, it will only look like a slightly below normal snowfall month through 1/25. But that’s ridiculous, because it has hardly snowed in January and has been extremely mild. The worst January ever, but it won’t look that bad in the historical records. When situations like that can be allowed to happen, it should cause the experts to revisit the measuring methodology.
  9. Some serious cold in Canada on the 18z GFS around Day 8. It's impressive enough to see -40 temps, but there's a decent area of -45 to -50 showing up...with even one pixel in NE Alberta at -55. Of course this is far out and 2m temps aren't exactly modeled well in general...but you don't see a map like this very often. The extremely rare 468 thickness contour shows up, and it covers a fairly respectable area. Even 474 is extremely impressive. Hopefully we'll get to track a real-deal arctic outbreak soon...but of course the question is whether this arctic air will drop south. At a minimum, seems like a nice temp gradient will set up. If a big storm results, it should be able to pull the cold air down.
  10. I was in West Yellowstone in early June, 5 years ago. It’s so beautiful there. Even with the long days during that time of year, it was around 30 in the morning and 60s in the afternoon. They have great radiational cooling conditions. All-time record low is -66.
  11. It's difficult to have any hope given how ***************** this winter has been...but I think there's a small glimmer on the map above. Yes, the mean SLP is too far SE for here...but it's a 1008 mb mean. Many of the stronger solutions have SLPs in the mid 990s...which in theory would pull it further NW if it ends up being a stronger storm.
  12. Glad to have someone else on board the train.
  13. Correct. Thank you for confirming via yet another data point how horrible our climo is - mission accomplished.
  14. Bring it on - then of course I would drive everyone crazy and they’ll ban me.
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