Jump to content


  • Posts

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by beavis1729

  1. ^ Yeah...as much as I truly respect LOT and our NWS forecasters, this winter's discussions from them seem to be hyper-focused on the tiniest of wintry weather threats...as if Chicagoland residents live in Atlanta and don't know how to handle winter. "Oh noze, we *may* get up to 1-2" of snow over the next 7 days, and temps may be below freezing for part of this time...we must sound the alarms!!!". More optimistically...it could just be that LOT is so bored with the wx here (and who can argue with that) - so, might as well elaborate on the most minor threats in AFDs because there's nothing else to talk about. I just got back from snowmobiling in northern WI this weekend - people there are legitimately pissed that the weather is so mild and tame...even though it was 20F with 8" of snow on the ground. It's like two different planets.
  2. Might as well take the bait. The short version: There are three issues for winter lovers - (1) Our average snowfall is pathetic to begin with (2) Snowfall is not a good metric for winter lovers anyway; should use Snow Depth Days (SDDs) (3) In Detroit's case...along with any other areas near here who actually saw some snow between Nov 15-Dec 15...it was all gone by Christmas anyway. So, any snowfall before Christmas this year was just stat-padding, and not very meaningful. Once a snowpack begins after 12/1, it should stay. It can fluctuate up and down a bit when bigger storms or modest thaws occur...but it shouldn't go away completely. That's why it's so important to get decent snowfall amounts early in the season...say 11/20 through 12/10. Otherwise, you have to hope every single day remains in the 20s or colder in order to preserve what little is on the ground (even for me, that's a lot to ask for). There is a huge irony in all of this - our winter climo would be improved dramatically by a small increase in average snowfall (say up to 50"), with DJF average temps about 5F colder. Not asking for International Falls or the UP or Fairbanks, contrary to how many on this forum characterize things. Very simple - seasons in seasons. 90 days of consistent summer (Jun 10 - Sep 10 in NE IL due to lake influence), matched by 90 days of consistent winter. We have consistent summer every year, except maybe 1992 with Pinatubo; I don't wake up on August 10th or June 24th or July 8th and wonder if it will feel like summer that day. It's something you can count on. But we have only had consistent winter once (1978-79). Consistent winter means nearly all days (not necessarily 100%) during the 90-day period have high temps < 35F and at least 2" of snow cover. Again, nothing crazy. Many of you don't agree on this next point...but 2010-11 was infuriating to me because, as great as the GHD I storm was, the snow was all gone 2 weeks later. If GHD I occurred on March 1st instead of Feb 1st, that would be fine...but 22" of snow that falls on Feb 1st should remain on the ground for the rest of Feb, at a minimum. Even 12" should. Not saying the depth has to remain at 22"...but you just can't have 22" of snow melt in 2 weeks during met winter. For anyone who cares - I don't really enjoy participating on or viewing this sub-forum anymore...because everyone goes out of their way to make you feel guilty and defensive about loving winter. It really sucks. You don't want to hear the long version.
  3. 12z GEM shows all-time record-breaking cold next weekend in the west. Verbatim at Day 7 (12z 1/2/22): Las Vegas 12F Phoenix 15F San Francisco 24F San Diego 32F
  4. I am talking about DJF (and mainly J), not just December. Sorry for not clarifying. Either way, even 2F masks the true situation on that map…and 2F is still a huge change over 30 years. Yes, some is UHI…but it has happened either way. And it doesn’t matter that 1961-90 was the coldest 30-year period. That is what I grew up with, so it’s my minimum expectation. My ire isn’t directed at you - it’s just out of frustration. At ORD, January normal temp used to be around 21F, now it’s near 25F, give or take. When you’re on the wrong side of the Midwest winter gradient like we are, every degree matters to retain snowpack.
  5. ^ As bad as that map is, it's actually understating the warmth...because DJF normal temps are so much higher now vs. 30 years ago. If you used 1961-1990 normals (which were 4F colder than 1991-2020 in Chicago, as an example), the map would look even more hideous. Back to my "time out" - I got so anxious and frustrated about this pattern, I had to step away for awhile. Not good for mental health.
  6. I don’t intend to speak for everyone…but I think part of it is the simple desire for “seasons in seasons”, and the fact that the shortest days plus the holidays are in December. You know - Currier and Ives snowfalls, It’s a Wonderful Life winter scenes, etc. In JJA, you can always count on consistent summer-like weather. It would be nice to be able to count on consistent winter-like weather in DJF. Unfortunately, reality isn’t so kind. Of course everything is relative…but I live in far NE IL, and I get furious and anxious every year when we don’t start building a snowpack early in December, to take advantage of the low sun angle. I actually have to step away from my love of winter for awhile each year, because I get so worked up about it. We get good stretches of cold and snow each winter, but not consistent enough like 45N or north in the Midwest and Plains. As I like to say, we are on the wrong side of the extreme Midwest winter gradient. To me, winter is about consistency - the beauty, like a mindset and a calm and peaceful way of life…not just single events/storms. I plan to move to the upper Midwest when I retire…hopefully soon. Hope you don’t mind my comments here…I definitely enjoy the good people and discussion in this sub-forum.
  7. I believe “measurable” means 0.1” or more…so they may have recorded a trace already. What’s even worse is that Chicago hasn’t had any measurable snow this season so far. I enjoy following everyone’s comments in this sub-forum…keep it up
  8. Thread was started on September 13th; titled 2021-22 Winter Discussion. Hasn't been much of a reason to post in it lately. On a separate note, the 12z Euro has H85 temps around 18C at ORD on Wed night 12/15. What in the fook is happening...those are warm 850mb temps even if it were mid-September.
  9. Many of us winter enthusiasts don't care whether December was forecasted a certain way. We just want December to be, you know, wintry...like it should be. The outcome is all that matters. The lack of snowfall and snow cover east of the Mississippi up to this point in the season is shocking...and it looks to only get worse over the next couple of weeks. Looking at ensemble progs, it's even possible that there will be close to zero snow cover in the entire Lower 48 east of the Mississippi on the winter solstice...when it's supposed to be deep winter. It's unacceptable and frustrating beyond belief.
  10. It was 69F in Chicago on 12/29/1984...then 3 weeks later it dropped to -27 (all-time record low) on 1/20/1985.
  11. I shouldn't be surprised, I guess...but the entire lower 48 has been devoid of winter so far...and it looks to continue through the next 10-15 days. Usually, you'll see winter showing its hand over the Rockies, Plains, and Upper Midwest...but it's a complete shutout. Seems like everything is delayed by a month. Meanwhile, Alaska is having a very cold November. King Salmon, AK will probably have its coldest November on record by about 4F. http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2021/11/record-cold-november-in-places.html#comment-form
  12. Coldest Christmas on record for the Midwest.
  13. Amazing that Duluth’s warmest *year* (albeit only Jan-Oct) on record is 2.4F warmer than any other year…especially with nearly 150 years of records. It would be more typical for monthly records…but it’s a phenomenal statistical anomaly for a 10-month period. I wonder what the monthly departures were in Jan-Oct 1963; I’m guessing JFM were crazy warm, as that’s where you can build up the + departures.
  14. Wow for MKE…especially relative to Madison. Probably UHI and very warm lake water.
  15. ORD still hasn’t hit the 40s yet this season. Will probably happen Saturday morning, but still…
  16. Yeah…and today’s min was 70 at ORD, the 2nd warmest daily min on record so late in the season.
  17. Right. I don't need it to be very cold this time of year...but some actual fall-like highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s would be nice. ORD hasn't dropped below 50 for the entire season so far, and this should continue through mid-October. That's crazy...it just doesn't feel right. Very little color on trees so far...it's like Mother Nature still thinks it's September 15th.
  18. ORD is up to 99 days with a temp of 80+ so far in 2021. Very backloaded this year, as Aug-Oct has meaningfully more 80+ days (47) than June-July (40). Normally ORD would be done with 80+ days by now, but the warm pattern over the next 10-15 days may lead to a few more. I don't think we'll break the record of 103 in 2005, but it could be close. April - 3 days May - 9 days June - 21 days July - 19 days Aug - 29 days Sep - 16 days Oct - 2 days
  19. Because our 30-year normals keep changing (increasing) so fast, departure #'s aren't very meaningful anymore. I prefer to focus on absolute temps. As you said, 5th warmest September on record (high 79.8, low 60.7). My apologies for being on a soap box...but the normals in Chicago are really getting out of hand. Using the 1961-1990 period, the normal high/low on January 1st was 29/13 (mean 21F). Using 1991-2020, it's 33/21 (mean 27F). So, January 1st is, on average, 6F warmer than 30 years ago. It's really sad and unbelievable...
  20. ORD is up to 97 days with a temp of 80+ so far in 2021. Very backloaded this year, as Aug-Sep had meaningfully more 80+ days (45) than June-July (40). If there is a warm spell in October, ORD could end up with around 100 days of 80+. That may crack the Top 10, as I believe the record for a year is around 105?? April - 3 days May - 9 days June - 21 days July - 19 days Aug - 29 days Sep - 16 days (assumes the high temp will hit 80+ on 9/29 and 9/30, but not on 9/28)
  21. 29 this morning in Hibbing, MN Still hasn't dropped below 50 here during September so far...looks like it could happen tomorrow.
  22. Yeah…I guess my beef is that the criteria are too strict. HI of 100+ should be an advisory, with a warning for 105+. HIs of 100+ feel very uncomfortable and oppressive even during the peak of summer…and especially in late August when it’s a bit rarer. I just use the “reasonability” test. If any day deserved heat headlines here, it’s today. Whether 103 or 106 or 107, it’s still oppressive. It’s a confusing message when part of the CWA is under an advisory and part isn’t…as it’s not a snow/no snow situation like winter, and there’s no lake breeze to make it much cooler in the northern counties. Not a big deal, and of course I am not intending to criticize the NWS. Sometimes I just think simpler is better - heat headlines everywhere. Maybe I’m just getting older and can’t stand the humidity anymore.
  23. Seems like a mistake for LOT to not have a heat advisory (at minimum) over their entire CWA. Currently 95/74/106 here with no heat headlines. Just miserable outside.
  24. Yikes, the evapotranspiration from the corn fields doing its thing. 91/78/106 here.
  • Create New...