beavis1729

Interesting...a few thoughts: - I think UHI still exists for max temps, even as I agree it's a bit less of an impact vs. min temps. A huge example is MSP - you'll often see temps (even during the day and especially during winter) that are several degrees warmer than surrounding areas. But it probably can't explain the entire +6.6F increase. Regardless of the debate on whether UHI introduces bias into climate change data, I strongly believe that UHI itself is a horrible thing. It's sad that humans can impact temperatures in a city that much. - The Chicago data is probably not very useful, as the official ob site was downtown and right on the lake during the 1800s. So, max temps were lower due to lake breezes, especially during the spring/March. I believe the ob site moved to Midway Airport later in the 1900s, before going to ORD in 1980. Midway and ORD experience some lake cooling in the spring, but not nearly as much as the immediate lakeshore. - Is it possible to look at some other non-urban locations with long PORs - such as INL or other small cities in WI, MI, IN, IA? Even Rockford IL and any metro suburban areas expereince significant UHI. Of course, if UHI is a significant driver of warmth where people actually live, it's bad. I'm just trying to parse out what is UHI driven warming vs. overall "background" Earth warming.

Yeah...in most NDJFM periods, it's above freezing for a decent amount of time. Normal high is in the low 40s on 11/1 and 3/31, and it's not horrendously cold (25F) even in mid-January. But this season, above-freezing temps have been very rare...primarily because November, February, and March have been so cold relative to normal. And when it does get above 32F, it's only for an hour or two each day. Here are some quick stats: Between 11/2/22 and 3/28/23, only 13 days have been above 36F. Warmest was 42F on Mar 20. It hit -49F and -44F on Dec 22-23 respectively. Nov 2022 actual average max/min = 29.4/-2.6, departure -10.0 Dec 2022 actual average max/min = 23.4/1.6, departure -1.7 Jan 2023 actual average max/min = 25.5/-0.3, departure -0.9 Feb 2023 actual average max/min = 28.1/-6.7, departure -5.7 Mar 2023 actual average max/min = 31.7/-2.0, departure -8.8 so far (although there are a few days with M in mid-March)

Still deep winter in the Upper Midwest. Low temps this morning: Grand Forks ND -9F (12" snow depth) Bemidji MN -6F Fargo ND -6F (20" snow depth) INL -5F (23" snow depth)

Yeah, would be great to experience winter there. And you’d definitely avoid the peak season crowds. I was there in early June 2018…with bluebird sunny days punctuated by an occasional afternoon shower, then plummeting temps after sunset. You could almost feel the temperature drop in real time.

West Yellowstone MT has 62” on the ground, and has essentially stayed below freezing constantly since November. As you said, an amazing winter out there. I mention West Yellowstone because I love that town…right outside of the park. Such a beautiful part of the country. High valley location that often drops into the 30s even in July.

The 1981-82 winter (3rd on the above list) was a beast for MSP, highlighted by extreme cold and two large snowstorms in January. Duluth is now at 133 consecutive days with 1"+ snow cover, with 32" still on the ground. They could hit 150 days when all is said and done, assuming a major thaw doesn't occur over the next two weeks. Record is 164 consecutive days, from 11/10/1995 to 4/21/1996. Duluth's seasonal snowfall is 125.4" so far; the record is within sight (135.4" in 1995-96).

No, ORD’s max temp this March is only 56. Only 8 other Marches over the past 150 years have had a lower monthly max…but a lot of historical March monthly max temps are in the 57-59 range. So, it’s a bit unusual…but not unprecedented.

Let’s see if the RAP has any clue

Similar seasonal snowfall gradient in the Midwest this year. Downtown Chicago is around 10" for the season, while MSP will likely finish in the Top 5. The gradient of SDDs this season is even crazier: Chicago (ORD): 42 Madison WI: 205 MSP: 947

^ 6z GFS shows temps of -15 to -20 in ND at Day 7. I imagine that's not very common for March 28th.

Today is the 111th consecutive day with 1”+ of snow cover at MSP, and the 120th day overall for the season. Looks like 1 or 2 more days may be added before the streak ends. *Edit to add 2022-23 1"+ snow cover stats for Duluth and International Falls, through March 20th: DLH: 126 consecutive days, 126 total days for the season INL: 130 consecutive days, 130 total days for the season

^ Snow magnet probably due to your relatively high elevation. Adds a bit of orographic lift to snow events in your area, no matter which direction the wind is coming from. Plus, on marginal temp events you may stay snow while nearby areas are mix or rain.

Nice…what are your normals for today, around 35/20?

1973-2023

NOWData for Duluth shows a depth of 37" on 3/12 and 3/13, and 35" on 3/14. I wonder if the interim 50" was someone (or automated) adding the new snowfall to the previous depth, without actually measuring the depth itself (?). 116.4" of snow for the season; record is 131.0" in 2013-14. Don't take this as a complaint about Duluth's winter climo ...but I always find it strange how 116.4" of snow can fall in a cold place like Duluth, but the max depth has never exceeded 37". It's like once you hit a certain depth, it's almost impossible for it to get much higher due to compaction and sublimation. Even in January (with hardly any melting due to the low sun angle), 17" of snow fell but the depth only increased by 2". And much of this snow was synoptic, not lake effect.

Chilly morning in central & northern WI, after the fresh snowfall from a couple of days ago. Not quite record lows, as mid-March normal lows are still in the teens. -17 Manitowish Waters -10 Minocqua -9 Rhinelander -2 Eau Claire -1 Stevens Point 1 Wausau

Road trip to Ontonagon and the Porcupine Mountains...beautiful area

MSP is up to 102 consecutive days with 1”+ snow cover, and 111 total days for the season. There were 9 days of snow cover earlier in November, before the streak began on 11/30. Should easily add 5-7 more days, and possibly 10. Unfortunately it only takes a couple of mild or rainy days to wipe out snow cover in mid-late March, even if it’s currently a glacier. One of my favorite places (Minocqua WI) basically has the same numbers as MSP this season. Their consecutive 1”+ snow cover record is probably unbreakable, 150 days from 11/23/1996 to 4/21/1997.

My brother in Mequon reported around 7”.

Come on - this NWS bashing is ridiculous. What are you trying to accomplish? I'm in Lake County IL, and we had about 4"...which has already compacted down to 2" and continues to melt. A warning was not needed, even for the locations which had 5-7". Headline calls are both an art and a science. Of course I wish the NWS were wrong and we ended up with 10-15" that actually stays on the ground for awhile, as I'm a winter weenie and only care about the outcome. But that has nothing to do with the NWS's job, which is great most of the time.

That's insanely warm for Iron Mountain - normal high for March 8th is 35.

Duluth is now up to 113 consecutive days with 2"+ snow depth; the streak began November 15th. Currently 30" on the ground. 45N and north is a different planet. ORD has only had 13 days with 2"+ snow on the ground this season, and zero days with 4"+.

Counting today, MSP is at 96 consecutive days with 1”+ snow cover. If models are correct, this should continue for at least 10 more days, and possibly 15-20 more days. What is the current record? The Midwest winter climo difference between 42N and 45N is unbelievable. It’s really a very short distance relative to the entire NA landmass. You guys are having a warm winter but can still make it work for both snowfall and snow cover…even as I would still be annoyed by the occasional thaws. But here, we can’t tolerate temps normal or above for even a modest 3-5 day period during DJF (much less March), since it kills snow cover. Even in our best winters for both snow and cold combined, we can barely string together 40-50 days of consecutive snow cover.

Thoughts?

Since this is a marginal set-up to begin with, it would help if Lake Michigan temps were actually near normal or slightly below. Typically, lake water temps are at their annual minimum in early March.