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Have a feeling this thread ends hot and dry. Hope I am wrong. Right now it is raining nearly every day. Feels like coastal Maine. For the historical record, many of us are stuck inside anyway due to COVID19 restrictions and voluntary social distancing. Many are working from home. These are trying times. I hope by the end of this thread, this pandemic is over and we are again worried about wx maps, future winter patterns, and ENSO. This thread will be primarily for pattern discussion both in the near and short term. If your family has a need due to the illness, send us a PM or put it on blast in the banter thread.
Seasonal forecasts are beginning to make their way out from respected scientists in the field to media and news outlets. The majority of specialists are predicting a hurricane season with above-normal activity. ENSO looks to be swinging neutral to perhaps even a La Niña by July-September. Western Atlantic subtropical and tropical SSTs are running above average overall with some particularly noticeable 2-3°+C deviations in the GOM and W. Caribbean. Could 2020 be hyperactive? AMO and NAO may present both favorable patterns for not only hurricanes in the MDR, but potential land threats to the W. Caribbean and GOM as well this season. Bermuda-Azores ridging may also dominate the SER/WAR steering pattern during Cape Verde season. This might be a year where we even see a few long-trackers reach Central America.
This winter could be a lot like the 2011-2012 winter, stay tuned for further updates.
Last year's winter discussion thread was started July 28, so it's past time for this winter's thread to start. Here's what Accuweather said from a month ago. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-la-nina-forecast-fall-winter-2016-2017/58306249 Here are the NWS CPC forecast maps. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=5 Currently there is a 55-60% chance of la nina this winter. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf I've heard the PDO might return to a more neutral or cool phase and don't know much about the potential for Atlantic blocking this winter. Any ideas?