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Showing results for tags 'heat'.
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Long range modeling is well into meteorological spring now. Things also get pretty quiet in here beyond winter, so probably not a huge need for monthly threads for a while. That said, we are coming out of a huge flooding/rain event and the GFS is showing a possible return to those conditions. The 16 day rain total, from 00z shows 10-12 inches falling over the period. So the extremely wet patten looks to continue. There may or may not be a brief cold shot in the early month period and there could be a winter threat in there, though obviously have to be heavily skeptical of it. After that, if we can believe the weeklies, warmth is back for the remainder of March.
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It is 41 in Kingsport with a windchill of 31. Wind chills are forecast tonight to be in the upper teens to lower 20s. Snow advisories are still posted for mountain communities. Still feels like winter, but spring temps are back in the forecast for this weekend.
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2018 Mountains and Foothills Spring/Summer thread
AsheCounty48 posted a topic in Southeastern States
Summer has arrived early this year, so let's get the thread going. -
It's looking like a cold spring, technically it already is since meteorological spring starts March 1st. Will we continue the trend of below average severe weather seasons? These threads in warm months don't see the activity that the winter thread does, so I figured this would handle summer as well. I guess because summer is normally benign in our part of the world outside the occasional heatwave, pop up storm or rare tropical remnant.
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What are the hottest heat indexes by each state? You won't believe that #1 is in Wisconsin. Appleton, Wisconsin July 13, 1995. The temperature was 101F, the RH was 71%, the dewpoint was 90F and the heat index was an astonishing 149F.
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April is just about over and it's time to stark tracking the chance for our first 90 degree day. Here's to a hot May.
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When do you un-install?
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Meteorological summer is upon us and already looking at a hot weekend coming up as well as the third tropical storm of the year!
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56/41, partly cloudy.
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Spring and summer weather for the mountains.
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A new topic for pattern discussion, lack of rain, tropics etc.... Will El Nino cause a third consecutive mild summer? Does El Nino fade and drought like conditions set up and bring another hot finish a la 2007? Will there be anything to watch in the tropics? Feel free to share your thoughts!
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This thread will close out the summer of 2014. This summer has pretty much been defined by cold fronts encroaching deeper than usual and basically a summer free of heat waves. Will it continue into fall?
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OK mountain folks it is time to dive into spring and hope we see some good thunderstorm activity and start the long haul towards summer.
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With the expanding area of drought conditions across this region and no sign of significant widespread rainfall amounts anytime soon, I think posting all the information related to it in one thread. Most of spring was dry and now it is carrying over into summer, which may have agricultural impacts soon or is already. Will see how long it lasts, but for the foreseeable future it will largely be dry where most of the members here reside. Anyone seeing stunted crops yet? What's your rainfall deficit so far? Only 0.30" of rain here this month. Latest Drought update: Forecast is for persistence and even expansion in parts of the Midwest. Link to drought monitor site: http://www.droughtmo...du/current.html
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Euro weeklies continue to advertise the pattern we have seen all summer, wetter and cooler than normal. Long-Range Forecast Model Update Not Big on Any Major Warmup July 30, 2013; 12:12 AM The most recent update of the long-range ECMWF model, which was released Monday night still shows more cooler and wetter anomalies, especially for central and eastern regions through most of August. The model just does not want to break down the northern latitude blocking, which in turn forces the jet stream farther south compared to normal, leading to a cooler/wetter pattern for many. The exception is northwestern Canada, where a strong ridge of high pressure is expected to persist and Newfoundland, which is more due to the well-above normal sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic which will likely remain through at least fall and probably the winter. I personally think that the blocking will break down by mid-August leading to a warmer pattern than what the ECMWF is showing for central and eastern Canada. ECMWF showing lower-than-normal tropical cyclone activity for August from the Gulf through the Caribbean basin..... One more thing, the model is fairly consistent in forecasting a drier pattern in the Gulf and Caribbean through a good chunk of August and this is likely due to the presence of increased wind shear due to the suppressed westerlies and higher than normal sea surface pressures. To no surprise, the model is predicting only 40 to 60 percent of normal tropical storm activity in this region for most of August. By the way, water temperatures in the basin are fairly close to normal, but we have been seeing above-normal wind shear and dry air/dust over the past couple of weeks, which are certainly inhibiting any serious development. Keep in mind though, it is still July and the tropics usually wait until the second week of August before things really start to get active. Hopefully, the ECMWF is right and it stays quiet through August. Brett Anderson's blog on accuweather. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/long-range-forecast-model-update-not-big-on-warming/15927728
