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Found 4 results

  1. Uncertainty is considerable and confidence in any severe storm today is below average. Feel best chance 3P-10P and mainly southern CT. Much greater confidence for an event to monitor late tonight-Friday morning, especially midnight-Noon when the front stalls, surface convergence produces heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms in NJ-LI in high PWAT airmass, especially I78 south where 6 hour "isolated 3-4" rains could occur in Ocean, Monmouth or Mercer County. It is s of I78 where a storm may become severe after midnight and a little concerned about a supercell there early Friday. A fair amount of low level shear in a somewhat high CAPE environment is modeled down toward the Jersey shore s of Sandy Hook Friday morning. So not guaranteeing the second paragraph above but a number of models are heading in this direction as of 6AM/30. Meanwhile, some beneficial rainfall is seeming headed for parts of nw NJ, maybe even all of the forum area where storms missed last week.
  2. SPC D1 prompts this topic. Have a little concern that todays strongest storms (2-3" rain producers/damaging wind) will be concentrated down in central or s NJ, but some spots in our NY metro from NYC westward should see isolated SVR late today. Think eastern LI is out of it today. However, with the large CAPE axis just s of us, cannot rule out a cluster of drenching thunderstorms forming-developing eastward later tonight and eventually making it to eastern LI. This latter is with considerable uncertainty.
  3. I guess today will be bigger in Ny metro than yesterday? Figured I'd start this if you want to use and keep the rest of the reports off yesterdays disappointment topic. Will start with the first posted LSR. Will replace these LSR maps as time permits and events dictate. See SPC D1 and local NWS offices/friends etc for any comments.
  4. The Summer of 2015 is turning into one of the all-time wettest for several locations in the Midwest. I'll try to keep up with the numbers and other stuff as we move along in time. Please feel free to add anything you come across. First up...here are the meteorological Summer rainfall total rankings-to-date through July 7th for a few major climate cities: Cleveland OH (1871-2015) 1) 10.64" in 1902 2) 9.75" in 1972 3) 9.73" in 1987 4) 9.29" in 2015 5) 8.49" in 2013 Evansville IN (1897-2015) 1) 11.44" in 1900 2) 11.09" in 1943 3) 10.76" in 1928 4) 10.00" in 1897 5) 9.87" in 2015 Fort Wayne IN (1897-2015) 1) 12.25" in 2015 2) 9.98" in 2003 3) 9.80" in 2000 4) 9.26" in 1958 5) 8.00" in 1981 Indianapolis IN (1871-2015) 1) 14.47" in 1875 2) 12.86" in 2015 3) 11.89" in 1938 4) 11.83" in 1998 5) 11.09" in 1928 Louisville KY (1873-2015) 1) 11.51" in 1960 2) 10.97" in 1896 3) 10.45" in 2015 4) 10.26" in 1942 5) 10.23" in 1998 Moline IL (1872-2015) 1) 14.10" in 2015 2) 13.55" in 1993 3) 12.64" in 1892 4) 12.22" in 2010 5) 11.17" in 2014 Peoria IL (1883-2015) 1) 11.96" in 2015 2) 11.85" in 1974 3) 10.23" in 2014 4) 9.91" in 1902 5) 9.42" in 1980 St. Louis MO (1874-2015) 1) 14.24" in 2015 2) 12.74" in 2003 3) 12.18" in 1875 4) 11.99" in 1969 5) 11.61" in 1915 Toledo OH (1871-2015) 1) 9.57" in 1969 2) 9.27" in 2008 3) 9.00" in 1981 4) 8.27" in 1892 5) 8.21" in 2015 Source of data: http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/#