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Found 17 results

  1. It's looking like a cold spring, technically it already is since meteorological spring starts March 1st. Will we continue the trend of below average severe weather seasons? These threads in warm months don't see the activity that the winter thread does, so I figured this would handle summer as well. I guess because summer is normally benign in our part of the world outside the occasional heatwave, pop up storm or rare tropical remnant.
  2. This one looks deserving of its own thread. FFC seems pretty bullish about large hail and some isolated nados.
  3. There is potential for a significant, multi-region severe weather threat for the very early part of next week on all major models. The 12z GFS, NAM, and EURO all show a shortwave ejecting out into the central and eastern U.S, and seem to be converging on a severe weather outbreak for multiple subforums. A sub 995mb low is forecast to traverse from KS into Southern MO/AR, and very strong moisture return is forecast to push up into parts of the Plains, Mississippi Valley, Dixie, and Tennessee/Ohio Valleys ahead of this surface low, and both low level and deep layer shear is more than adequate for a potential multi region severe weather outbreak early next week..
  4. Clown range NAM looks primed for an ice event at least for CNE...perhaps interior SNE. Rest of 12z suite will need to come back SE some to get the more wintry solutions back on the table south of dendrite.
  5. My next post is about the potential snows from Saturday evening through Thursday morning. Models are in general agreement that the potentials for Ocean Effect Snow from Sunday through Tuesday and then storm produced snows from Wednesday through Thursday due to a coastal storm is on the table. However, this post will solely focus on the Ocean Effect Snow potentials. First is the event Sunday through Monday. Mesoscale WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW both support a single band of ocean effect snowfall impacting the region of Cape Cod from Hyannis to Chatham and Provincetown on Northerly winds from 900mb to the surface, which means a single convergence band is more likely than multiple bands of snow which are less intense. These two models keep the band over this region from about 12z Sunday to 00z Monday or later, that is at least 12 hours or more of heavy snowfall over this area of the outer cape, this could produce more than 6" of snow, we will have to see the next few runs until the event starts and then diagnose the real short range models and what they produce. For now the potential exists of a few inches to as much as 6" or more over the Outer Cape Cod area. Stay tuned!
  6. Latest NAM run 00z shows a strong potential for ocean effect snow event from the Cape Cod Canal eastward to Provincetown on northerly winds, also unidirectional wind flow from 900mb to the surface indicates a single band event is probable along with a strong instability burst from 850mb to surface ocean temperature differential (Delta Ts) of 18-20C which is sufficient enough to produce heavy snows over the Cape and Islands. Also the flow is stronger than 10mph which should be sufficient enough for consistent band developing as we transition into a clipper low for the next few days. Big storm potential if the clipper low slows down its movement like the latest 12z guidance suggests at H5 with the low developing and closing off the H5 flow over the Northeast US. This will prolong the snow chances from Sunday morning to Wednesday afternoon for overall snow chances. Stay tuned!
  7. Hurricane force winds, blizzard conditions, epic weather that only lasted 2-3 hours across the Cape and Islands poured fear into the residents minds that the end of the world was indeed today. The horror stories of my sister being caught in a movie theater with no power, my brother being caught in a microburst where the winds were unmeasurable, my dad caught in a wind storm that brought every tree you could think of into the road he was driving along, then of course my epic two plus hour bus ride from Bishop Stang in No. Dartmouth, MA where the weather was pedestrian during the early afternoon, soon began to turn to the more wilder side as the rain turned to sleet just as I was embarking on the worst afternoon of my life. Moments upon leaving Stang, the sleet turned to a wind driven snowfall where it started accumulating rapidly the further east I went. Traffic along route 25 in Wareham and then route 3 along the Canal went towards a standstill traffic wise as the first sign of snow snarled up traffic badly. My dad and siblings whoever was with him trying to pick me up at the bus stop was amazed at all the trees that fell down into the roads. Luckily I didn't face the microburst as I was behind the surface low and tropopause fold, and now I am waiting to witness those winds again, maybe in a hurricane, but an extratropical low will be just fine as well.
  8. While it is the 4km NAM, that model along with the less, but still notable 12km NAM are both showing a decent chance of severe weather and potentially a tornado threat in Alabama and surrounding areas on Thursday, March 24th. It seems right now, if this setup wants to be more significant, the surface low should want to slow down a bit so surface winds would be more backed in the area. Also, CAPE values generally range from around 1000 J/kg on the 12km NAM/GFS to 1500-2000 on the 4km NAM. Regardless of this, the 4km NAM shows discrete supercells in central Alabama Thursday afternoon.
  9. As 2016 rings in, thought I'd make a severe weather discussion forum for the New Year. Severe weather doesn't seem likely through Mid January for now.
  10. I'm being asked to forecast high temperatures, low temperatures, and sustained winds (at the surface) and I'm having difficulty finding accurate forecast models to predict each condition. So I'm asking what everyone uses to forecast these individual variables. Thus far, I've been using GFS MOS data and SREF plumes only. Any help will be greatly appreciated!!!
  11. Hvward

    Tropical Storm Ana

    Ok guys, this one is going to linger for a bit on the NC/SC coast so I think we need a separate thread to document/discuss observations. 4km NAM really gets this thing going later this afternoon with gust of 65+mph. It wouldn't take much for this to reach hurricane threshold, but I still have my doubts. One thing is for sure though, it is in a good spot to strengthen over the next day or so. Most models bring good rain to the Triangle and the whole Eastern part of NC so I think we could see a bit of flash flooding inland by the end of the weekend. Murrells Inlet, SC through Southport, NC looks to be ground zero for landfall but places like Wilmington and Jacksonville will take the brunt of the rain. It will be interesting to see how the Cape Fear River reacts with the storm moving more perpendicular to the coast compared to a parallel approach. Below are some great webcams to watch the storm come ashore. Not as many chasers are going to chase imo because of the threat out in the plains, so these webcams will most likely be the best source for video. If this weekend wasn't Mothers Day, I would have probably made the trip to ILM but I think I will save my hurricane chase for something later in the year. All and all this storm will be a prolonged event with strong rip currents, storm surge, and torrential rain that could pack a somewhat unexpected punch to those along the SC/NC coast today into tomorrow! Myrtle Beach, SC: http://www.earthcam.com/usa/southcarolina/myrtlebeach/?cam=myrtlebeach_hd http://www.crownreef.com/webcam/ http://www.tripsmarter.com/myrtle-beach/video/live-cams/compass-cove-schooner-live-cam http://www.beachcove.com/webcam/ http://www.breakers.com/myrtle-beach-web-cam/ http://www.oceancreek.com/webcam/ http://www.northmyrtlebeachchamber.com/index.php?src=gendocs&ref=Webcam&category=Main Folly Beach, SC: http://surfchex.com/follybeach-web-cam.php Murrells Inlet, SC: http://www.tripsmarter.com/myrtle-beach/video/live-cams/dead-dog-saloon-live-cam-marshwalk Isle of Palms, SC: http://www.carolinacoastsurfclub.org/surfcamnew.shtml Holden Beach, NC: http://www.earthcam.com/usa/northcarolina/supply/holden/?cam=holdennc http://www.brunswicklandrealty.com/beachcam Southport, NC: http://www.fishyfishycafe.com http://www.beachcamsusa.com/me/southport/southport-maine-webcam Bald Head Island, NC: http://rentals.coastalurge.com/bhi-marina-cam/ Wrightsville Beach, NC: http://www.surfchex.com/index.php http://www.surfchex.com/wrightsville-beach-waterway-live-sup-cam.php Kure Beach, NC: http://www.surfchex.com/kure-beach-web-cam.php Carolina Beach, NC: http://www.surfchex.com/carolina-beach-web-cam.php
  12. nrgjeff

    Severe Storms April 9

    Could be severe weather dinner theater from Memphis north to Paducah this evening. Couple isolated cells may develop ahead of the main line. While Illinois may enjoy more turning winds with height, and a lovely retreating boundary, heating is better in the Mid South. Looks like some sort of differential heating boundary or moisture surge from eastern Arkansas into far western Tennessee. While it could be a focus for cells ahead of the line, most hi-res guidance just shows a big cluster of storms developing. Very latest 15Z HRRR shows a cluster in the Delta actually cutting off flow into the main line and even the above boundary. Previous HRRR and 12Z hi-res NAM had better inflow for the main line of storms. Looks like mainly wind and hail to me. I agree with the low tor probs from SPC for the Mid South. Maybe we will see nice photos of a shelf cloud over downtown Memphis this evening.
  13. It's back, the epic medium/long range winter discussion thread. This winter has nearly unanimously been touted as one to remember. Everyone in the know, our favorite and not so favorite forecasters all seem to see signs that point to a blockbuster winter. Let's hope it delivers as advertised. Else some folks have some 'splainin to do. Here is to an epic winter that we will all remember for decades to come!!! Courtesy of Brett Anderson here is his interpretation of the Euro weeklies for the first week of December : (Looks like an El Nino signature to me) From the usually conservative and usually playing catchup CPC :
  14. Pretty early to be in a Day 5 outlooked area for severe. Discuss upcoming threats, potential season impacting factors and more in this thread.
  15. The 6-10 day forecast is hinting at another severe weather sequence from the southern Plains into the Southeast US. Just like last time the models seem to be trending from a Plains highlight to a Dixie Alley highlight. South severe is still 8-10 days away so uncertainty is high. Though one cannot pinpoint details or target areas, in May one can assume severe weather will verify at least 2-3 days out of the 6-10 day period.
  16. Why not, I'll try my luck. Day 2 outlook DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0110 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST... CORRECTED TO INCLUDE NO THUNDER AREA WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. ...SUMMARY... STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. MORE SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD. MOST SUBSTANTIAL AMPLIFICATION OVER THESE AREAS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR THROUGH EARLY SUN...A BIT LATER/SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH...A LEADING WEAK TROUGH/FRONTAL ZONE WILL EXTEND FROM LOWER MI SOUTHWEST TO KS/NEB BORDER AREA AND THEN CURVE WEST-NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY SAT. A VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...COINCIDENT WITH A BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAKER FLOW ALOFT. LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES ORBITING THE UPPER RIDGE AND EMANATING FROM DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST...IN CONCERT WITH THE GREAT PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF ONGOING/ELEVATED STORMS ALONG/NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST ND AND NORTHERN MN DURING SAT EVENING. WHILE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THIS FRONT...GREATER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ALONG THE LEADING BOUNDARY FROM EASTERN NEB TO LOWER MI AND NORTHERN IND. ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST... A CORRIDOR OF STRONG TO LOCALLY EXTREME INSTABILITY /SBCAPE 2000-4000 J PER KG/ IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH HEATING OF THE DAY. CONTINUATION OF AFOREMENTIONED NOCTURNALLY SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES AMIDST INCREASING...BUT GENERALLY CAPPED INSTABILITY...FROM NEB ACROSS IA INTO SOUTHERN WI. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST STRENGTHENING OF THE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN BOTH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL DEVELOPING EAST FROM THE MO RIVER VALLEY TO THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST EAST INTO LOWER MI AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST OH LATE INTO SAT NIGHT GIVEN THE INCREASE IN FORCING AND ASCENT AS THE UPPER TROUGH UNDERGOES STRONGER AMPLIFICATION. HOWEVER...DIMINISHING INSTABILITY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT...AND TIME OF DAY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH TIME.
  17. About time we branch this off and give it a separate thread. Local news channels are starting to report on it and traffic will really pick up here in a couple days when we have a Cane off the SE Coast flirting with a potential phase and left hook into the MA/NE. Start with the Big 3 ens means from 12z today H5 anomalies rolled forward 96hrs...
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