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Found 15 results

  1. With La Nina conditions forecast to develop, will be interesting to see the range of observations from the beginning of this thread to the last. An incredibly stormy night has come to an end. The sun is out. Please reference the severe thread regarding the powerful tornado that swept through middle TN overnight. Our thoughts and prayers are with the people in that region. If you are a new poster and not comfortable in posting in the pattern discussion thread, this is a great place to start. Give it a shot!
  2. Hi! Please can somebody explain to me why the falling wind of the Chinook is warmer than the rest of the air near the ground East of the Rockies? I get that it warms back up as it falls from the top of the mountains and does so quicker when dry than moist as it rises on the west side. But how can it warm to higher temperatures than air that is already there? Does it start off that much warmer when it comes from the Pacific? Is there arctic influence East of the Rockies that there isn't West of the Rockies? Please if you know, share your wisdom. I must have read everything on google thank you!
  3. Twitter has safe tornado videos at #kywx and probably other #/@ tags. Atmosphere has tipped its hand on the synoptic fronts. How about boundaries farther south? They are usually second to go; so, this is very much still an ongoing day for Dixie (as of Noon Central Time). Noon Central Time: Differential heating and dewpoint boundary is noted from North Alabama into West Tenn. Another boundary is lifting from central Mississippi. They may merge later farther north. Either way looks like locally enhanced helicity in the usual suspect areas of North Alabama into northeast Mississippi and southern Middle Tenn. Upper air wind fields are strong including proper turning with height. 700 mb is a little warm; but, I expect enough surface convergence to overcome. Synoptic trough is coming out of Arkansas, and will bump into the above boundary(ies). North Bama clouds are decreasing both sides of lifting boundary, an ominous sign. Oh that boundary looks like an extension of the Georgia cool wedge-front, where clearing is also seen both sides. Warm mid-levels and neutral heights from yesterday will have less impact if foretasted surface heating materializes. Plus convergence along boundaries should be enough, esp intersecting ones.
  4. It's looking like a cold spring, technically it already is since meteorological spring starts March 1st. Will we continue the trend of below average severe weather seasons? These threads in warm months don't see the activity that the winter thread does, so I figured this would handle summer as well. I guess because summer is normally benign in our part of the world outside the occasional heatwave, pop up storm or rare tropical remnant.
  5. This one looks deserving of its own thread. FFC seems pretty bullish about large hail and some isolated nados.
  6. There is potential for a significant, multi-region severe weather threat for the very early part of next week on all major models. The 12z GFS, NAM, and EURO all show a shortwave ejecting out into the central and eastern U.S, and seem to be converging on a severe weather outbreak for multiple subforums. A sub 995mb low is forecast to traverse from KS into Southern MO/AR, and very strong moisture return is forecast to push up into parts of the Plains, Mississippi Valley, Dixie, and Tennessee/Ohio Valleys ahead of this surface low, and both low level and deep layer shear is more than adequate for a potential multi region severe weather outbreak early next week..
  7. Clown range NAM looks primed for an ice event at least for CNE...perhaps interior SNE. Rest of 12z suite will need to come back SE some to get the more wintry solutions back on the table south of dendrite.
  8. My next post is about the potential snows from Saturday evening through Thursday morning. Models are in general agreement that the potentials for Ocean Effect Snow from Sunday through Tuesday and then storm produced snows from Wednesday through Thursday due to a coastal storm is on the table. However, this post will solely focus on the Ocean Effect Snow potentials. First is the event Sunday through Monday. Mesoscale WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW both support a single band of ocean effect snowfall impacting the region of Cape Cod from Hyannis to Chatham and Provincetown on Northerly winds from 900mb to the surface, which means a single convergence band is more likely than multiple bands of snow which are less intense. These two models keep the band over this region from about 12z Sunday to 00z Monday or later, that is at least 12 hours or more of heavy snowfall over this area of the outer cape, this could produce more than 6" of snow, we will have to see the next few runs until the event starts and then diagnose the real short range models and what they produce. For now the potential exists of a few inches to as much as 6" or more over the Outer Cape Cod area. Stay tuned!
  9. Latest NAM run 00z shows a strong potential for ocean effect snow event from the Cape Cod Canal eastward to Provincetown on northerly winds, also unidirectional wind flow from 900mb to the surface indicates a single band event is probable along with a strong instability burst from 850mb to surface ocean temperature differential (Delta Ts) of 18-20C which is sufficient enough to produce heavy snows over the Cape and Islands. Also the flow is stronger than 10mph which should be sufficient enough for consistent band developing as we transition into a clipper low for the next few days. Big storm potential if the clipper low slows down its movement like the latest 12z guidance suggests at H5 with the low developing and closing off the H5 flow over the Northeast US. This will prolong the snow chances from Sunday morning to Wednesday afternoon for overall snow chances. Stay tuned!
  10. Hurricane force winds, blizzard conditions, epic weather that only lasted 2-3 hours across the Cape and Islands poured fear into the residents minds that the end of the world was indeed today. The horror stories of my sister being caught in a movie theater with no power, my brother being caught in a microburst where the winds were unmeasurable, my dad caught in a wind storm that brought every tree you could think of into the road he was driving along, then of course my epic two plus hour bus ride from Bishop Stang in No. Dartmouth, MA where the weather was pedestrian during the early afternoon, soon began to turn to the more wilder side as the rain turned to sleet just as I was embarking on the worst afternoon of my life. Moments upon leaving Stang, the sleet turned to a wind driven snowfall where it started accumulating rapidly the further east I went. Traffic along route 25 in Wareham and then route 3 along the Canal went towards a standstill traffic wise as the first sign of snow snarled up traffic badly. My dad and siblings whoever was with him trying to pick me up at the bus stop was amazed at all the trees that fell down into the roads. Luckily I didn't face the microburst as I was behind the surface low and tropopause fold, and now I am waiting to witness those winds again, maybe in a hurricane, but an extratropical low will be just fine as well.
  11. While it is the 4km NAM, that model along with the less, but still notable 12km NAM are both showing a decent chance of severe weather and potentially a tornado threat in Alabama and surrounding areas on Thursday, March 24th. It seems right now, if this setup wants to be more significant, the surface low should want to slow down a bit so surface winds would be more backed in the area. Also, CAPE values generally range from around 1000 J/kg on the 12km NAM/GFS to 1500-2000 on the 4km NAM. Regardless of this, the 4km NAM shows discrete supercells in central Alabama Thursday afternoon.
  12. As 2016 rings in, thought I'd make a severe weather discussion forum for the New Year. Severe weather doesn't seem likely through Mid January for now.
  13. I'm being asked to forecast high temperatures, low temperatures, and sustained winds (at the surface) and I'm having difficulty finding accurate forecast models to predict each condition. So I'm asking what everyone uses to forecast these individual variables. Thus far, I've been using GFS MOS data and SREF plumes only. Any help will be greatly appreciated!!!
  14. Ok guys, this one is going to linger for a bit on the NC/SC coast so I think we need a separate thread to document/discuss observations. 4km NAM really gets this thing going later this afternoon with gust of 65+mph. It wouldn't take much for this to reach hurricane threshold, but I still have my doubts. One thing is for sure though, it is in a good spot to strengthen over the next day or so. Most models bring good rain to the Triangle and the whole Eastern part of NC so I think we could see a bit of flash flooding inland by the end of the weekend. Murrells Inlet, SC through Southport, NC looks to be ground zero for landfall but places like Wilmington and Jacksonville will take the brunt of the rain. It will be interesting to see how the Cape Fear River reacts with the storm moving more perpendicular to the coast compared to a parallel approach. Below are some great webcams to watch the storm come ashore. Not as many chasers are going to chase imo because of the threat out in the plains, so these webcams will most likely be the best source for video. If this weekend wasn't Mothers Day, I would have probably made the trip to ILM but I think I will save my hurricane chase for something later in the year. All and all this storm will be a prolonged event with strong rip currents, storm surge, and torrential rain that could pack a somewhat unexpected punch to those along the SC/NC coast today into tomorrow! Myrtle Beach, SC: http://www.earthcam.com/usa/southcarolina/myrtlebeach/?cam=myrtlebeach_hd http://www.crownreef.com/webcam/ http://www.tripsmarter.com/myrtle-beach/video/live-cams/compass-cove-schooner-live-cam http://www.beachcove.com/webcam/ http://www.breakers.com/myrtle-beach-web-cam/ http://www.oceancreek.com/webcam/ http://www.northmyrtlebeachchamber.com/index.php?src=gendocs&ref=Webcam&category=Main Folly Beach, SC: http://surfchex.com/follybeach-web-cam.php Murrells Inlet, SC: http://www.tripsmarter.com/myrtle-beach/video/live-cams/dead-dog-saloon-live-cam-marshwalk Isle of Palms, SC: http://www.carolinacoastsurfclub.org/surfcamnew.shtml Holden Beach, NC: http://www.earthcam.com/usa/northcarolina/supply/holden/?cam=holdennc http://www.brunswicklandrealty.com/beachcam Southport, NC: http://www.fishyfishycafe.com http://www.beachcamsusa.com/me/southport/southport-maine-webcam Bald Head Island, NC: http://rentals.coastalurge.com/bhi-marina-cam/ Wrightsville Beach, NC: http://www.surfchex.com/index.php http://www.surfchex.com/wrightsville-beach-waterway-live-sup-cam.php Kure Beach, NC: http://www.surfchex.com/kure-beach-web-cam.php Carolina Beach, NC: http://www.surfchex.com/carolina-beach-web-cam.php
  15. Could be severe weather dinner theater from Memphis north to Paducah this evening. Couple isolated cells may develop ahead of the main line. While Illinois may enjoy more turning winds with height, and a lovely retreating boundary, heating is better in the Mid South. Looks like some sort of differential heating boundary or moisture surge from eastern Arkansas into far western Tennessee. While it could be a focus for cells ahead of the line, most hi-res guidance just shows a big cluster of storms developing. Very latest 15Z HRRR shows a cluster in the Delta actually cutting off flow into the main line and even the above boundary. Previous HRRR and 12Z hi-res NAM had better inflow for the main line of storms. Looks like mainly wind and hail to me. I agree with the low tor probs from SPC for the Mid South. Maybe we will see nice photos of a shelf cloud over downtown Memphis this evening.