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As a lover of the weather, many of you are probably interested and potentially talented enough to learn how to use your skill to trade commodity futures and conservative options such as natural gas (UNG), coffee (JO) and the grain market. While everyone gets excited about snowstorms, there is just as much potential excitement watching stocks and commodities affected by weather. Yes, watching stocks such as Apple and Amazon soar over the years may. not be your cup of tea, so why not learn how to use weather forecasts to make investments in things affected by weather. While I am firm believer in climate change and a warming planet, this winter has the potential to be much colder. I began telling clients last week that I thought we would go into a negative Arctic Oscillation Phase as shown on the upper right. Other than La Nina, it is quite possible that "aerosols" from the historic western fires are getting caught up in the atmosphere and warming the Arctic. This will help the AO index to go negative with cold late fall weather in at least the Midwest and possibly the eastern U.S. OCTOBER GLOBAL RAINFALL ANAMOLIES WHEN THE AO INDEX IS NEGATIVE My teleconnection program at www.climatepredict.com is free for you to use and you can click on different teleconnections such as the AO index and see historical rainfall, snowfall and temperature trends months in advance. Notice, for example, how in October other commodities such as coffee, wheat and soybeans are influenced by the negative AO index. I will be starting a much less expensive, monthly global commodity weather newsletter that is much more affordable from my web site www.bestweatherinc.com. and if you are interested in learning about commodities and weather you can always sign up for a FREE trial Regards, Jim
Abstract: Extreme weather events in Asia have been occurring with increasing frequency as the globe warms in response to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases. Many of these events arise from weather regimes that persist over a region for days or even weeks, resulting in disruptive heatwaves, droughts, flooding, snowfalls, and cold spells. We investigate changes in the persistence of large-scale weather systems through a pattern-recognition approach based on daily 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies over the Asian continent. By tracking consecutive days that the atmosphere resides in a particular pattern, we identify long-duration events (LDEs), defined as lasting longer than three days, and measure their frequency of occurrence over time in each pattern. We find that regimes featuring positive height anomalies in high latitudes are occurring more often as the Arctic warms faster than mid-latitudes, both in the recent past and in model projections for the twenty-first century assuming unabated greenhouse gas emissions. The increased dominance of these patterns corresponds to a higher likelihood of LDEs, suggesting that persistent weather conditions will occur more frequently. By mapping observed temperature and precipitation extremes onto each atmospheric regime, we gain insight into the types of disruptive weather events that will become more prevalent as particular patterns become more common. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-71945-4
Came across this story today - no idea whether it is (a) unusual or (b ) significant to see this kind of transequatorial jet stream. Can someone explain and chime in? http://www.rawstory.com/2016/06/unprecedented-scientists-declare-global-climate-emergency-after-jet-stream-crosses-equator/ ‘Unprecedented’: Scientists declare ‘global climate emergency’ after jet stream crosses equator David Edwards Climate scientists this week expressed alarm after “unprecedented” data showed the Northern Hemisphere Jet Stream crossing the Equator. In a column on Tuesday, environmental blogger Robert Scribbler noted that the Northern Hemisphere Jet Stream had merged with the Southern Hemisphere Jet Stream. “It’s the very picture of weather weirding due to climate change. Something that would absolutely not happen in a normal world,” he wrote. “Something, that if it continues, basically threatens seasonal integrity.” “Like many extreme events resulting from human-forced climate change — this co-mingling of upper level airs from one Hemisphere with another is pretty fracking strange,” Scribbler explained. “Historically, the Tropics — which produce the tallest and thickest air mass in the world — have served as a mostly impenetrable barrier to upper level winds moving from one Hemisphere to another. But as the Poles have warmed due to human-forced climate change, the Hemispherical Jet Streams have moved out of the Middle Latitudes more and more. ” “That’s bad news for seasonality,” he continued. “You get this weather-destabilizing and extreme weather generating mixing of seasons that is all part of a very difficult to deal with ‘Death of Winter’ type scenario.” University of Ottawa climate scientist Paul Beckwith called the new behavior “unprecedented.” “Our climate system behaviour continues to behave in new and scary ways that we have never anticipated, or seen before,” Beckwith observed. “Welcome to climate chaos. We must declare a global climate emergency.” In a YouTube video, Beckwith said that the jet stream behavior signaled “massive hits to the food supply” and “massive geopolitical unrest.”
Hi everybody I’m new here. I live in The Netherlands, nearby Amsterdam. I’m a biologist, but I’ve always been interested in the weather and in climate change. I’ve made nice overviews (at least, I hope so) of the temperatures in the US, based on data of the NOAA National Climatic Data Center. Please click here for a PDF of one of the stations. There is a Fahrenheit version and a Celsius version. Therefore, all the data are double available. At the bottom of the PDF page you can see the highest and the lowest minimum and maximum temperature for each month, and the day and the year on witch this temperature was reached. It shows the history of the temperatures in 80 places in the US since 1976. The background colors show the daily mean temperature (Tmax + Tmin)/2; good enough for this purpose. Also the presence of a snow cover and the snow depth are shown. The monthly averages are also taken from the National Climatic Data Center. Based on that, I calculated the average annual temperature, and the 30-year average temperature. The data from the Data Center are given in Celsius. I converted it to Fahrenheit but maybe this can give small differences with official published values. Why this? Well, I started to do this with de Dutch data, then I took the German data and then the European data. And the data from the U.S. are easy to access, so… O.K., you can say I spend too much time doing this, but it’s kind of interesting. From a European point of view, the American data are interesting because we hear a lot of stories of very cold winters in the US, while here in this part of Europe we didn’t have a winter at all; nor did we have last year. With the 30-year average I want to show climate change (in fact not necessarily that; when there is no change, I want to show that as well) but I do realize that there can be all kind of bias in the data. In some stations in the US you can see a significant increase of the 30-year average, while on some other places there is not much of a change. I’ve been looking for official published normals of the main stations in the US. I only found these data of the period 1951-1980 and 1981-2010. More about that later.