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Found 7 results

  1. Early, I know, so if it's out of line Mods feel free to nuke the thread. A new wave has rolled off the African coast, and all the major operational guidance has development in the next few days. More impressive, the GEFS and EPS are bullish on the wave and its long term development chances. Way too early to say what happens with the track, but the NHC has already labeled it an invest despite the low odds given for development in the next 2-5 days. First critical thing I'll be looking at--SAL. It has been harassing anything in the MDR all season. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Eight, located a few hundred miles north-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas. 1. A tropical wave that has emerged off the west coast of Africa is forecast to move westward over the next couple of days and merge with a broad area of low pressure located southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of the system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the open tropical eastern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. Forecaster Roberts
  2. Meteorological summer is upon us and already looking at a hot weekend coming up as well as the third tropical storm of the year!
  3. Euro weeklies continue to advertise the pattern we have seen all summer, wetter and cooler than normal. Long-Range Forecast Model Update Not Big on Any Major Warmup July 30, 2013; 12:12 AM The most recent update of the long-range ECMWF model, which was released Monday night still shows more cooler and wetter anomalies, especially for central and eastern regions through most of August. The model just does not want to break down the northern latitude blocking, which in turn forces the jet stream farther south compared to normal, leading to a cooler/wetter pattern for many. The exception is northwestern Canada, where a strong ridge of high pressure is expected to persist and Newfoundland, which is more due to the well-above normal sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic which will likely remain through at least fall and probably the winter. I personally think that the blocking will break down by mid-August leading to a warmer pattern than what the ECMWF is showing for central and eastern Canada. ECMWF showing lower-than-normal tropical cyclone activity for August from the Gulf through the Caribbean basin..... One more thing, the model is fairly consistent in forecasting a drier pattern in the Gulf and Caribbean through a good chunk of August and this is likely due to the presence of increased wind shear due to the suppressed westerlies and higher than normal sea surface pressures. To no surprise, the model is predicting only 40 to 60 percent of normal tropical storm activity in this region for most of August. By the way, water temperatures in the basin are fairly close to normal, but we have been seeing above-normal wind shear and dry air/dust over the past couple of weeks, which are certainly inhibiting any serious development. Keep in mind though, it is still July and the tropics usually wait until the second week of August before things really start to get active. Hopefully, the ECMWF is right and it stays quiet through August. Brett Anderson's blog on accuweather. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/long-range-forecast-model-update-not-big-on-warming/15927728
  4. Hey everyone! My name is James Sinko the Vice President of Lyndon State College's Chapter of the American Meteorological Society and National Weather Association. I am happy to announce that we are in the early planning stages of the 38th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference (NESC) which will be held March 8-10, 2013 in Rutland Vermont. This post will be constantly updated with new information on the conference as we release it. To follow our updates check here or the following Our Website http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/ams Twitter www.twitter.com/LSCAMSNWA If you have any questions please feel free to contact me via email [email protected] ~James Sinko Vice President Lyndon State AMS/NWA
  5. Give me your forecast for expected Atlantic storms/canes/majors for both the month of July alone, and for the whole season (including those we've already had). July: S/C/M Season: S/C/M
  6. I know many are already posting in the main thread, but I figured it might be good for the few folks that are chasing to have a specific thread to drop info into. This is for the tropical side, I believe there is a snow chase thread already. Partly doing this for myself so I can quick post stuff while mobile without having to wait for the main thread to load (it takes a long time on the iPad while mobile). Plans for me: At the moment I'm prepping at home. I likely will head out tomorrow around Mid-day and head for the Wilmington area. From there I can decide on the north side or south side of Delaware Bay. I probably won't venture much further north and Cape May New Jersey regardless of the storms position if further north. And southern paths will be for direct eyewall intercept (if it exists). I suspect that access to the barrier islands will be 10x more difficult than in the south. Departments here are way more heavily staffed and the jog across state lines in itself can make it difficult. I'll try to update this thread, but also catch my posts: http://www.twitter.com/stormitecture http://www.facebook.com/stormitecture http://www.stormitecture.com
  7. I was curious as to how NWS names Invests. I nearly always see either an Invest 94 or Invest 95 in both the atl epac regions and if its another number, it's something that appears arbitrary. If that's the case then this topic'll be quite short. If not, then whats their criteria in naming an particular invest with a particular 90-99 number? Thanks a bunch!