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I just realized that we need an observation thread for Fall. With the remnants of Flo approaching, though it might not be a bad idea to get the Fall obs thread rolling. What is left of Florence looks like it might be a rainmaker(within norms) for the eastern Valley. Wind advisories are hoisted for the mountains. Western NC is under a flood watch. Rivers that flow from NC such as the French Broad and Nolichucky may flood in TN due to rain in North Carolina.
Early, I know, so if it's out of line Mods feel free to nuke the thread. A new wave has rolled off the African coast, and all the major operational guidance has development in the next few days. More impressive, the GEFS and EPS are bullish on the wave and its long term development chances. Way too early to say what happens with the track, but the NHC has already labeled it an invest despite the low odds given for development in the next 2-5 days. First critical thing I'll be looking at--SAL. It has been harassing anything in the MDR all season. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Eight, located a few hundred miles north-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas. 1. A tropical wave that has emerged off the west coast of Africa is forecast to move westward over the next couple of days and merge with a broad area of low pressure located southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of the system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the open tropical eastern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. Forecaster Roberts
Euro weeklies continue to advertise the pattern we have seen all summer, wetter and cooler than normal. Long-Range Forecast Model Update Not Big on Any Major Warmup July 30, 2013; 12:12 AM The most recent update of the long-range ECMWF model, which was released Monday night still shows more cooler and wetter anomalies, especially for central and eastern regions through most of August. The model just does not want to break down the northern latitude blocking, which in turn forces the jet stream farther south compared to normal, leading to a cooler/wetter pattern for many. The exception is northwestern Canada, where a strong ridge of high pressure is expected to persist and Newfoundland, which is more due to the well-above normal sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic which will likely remain through at least fall and probably the winter. I personally think that the blocking will break down by mid-August leading to a warmer pattern than what the ECMWF is showing for central and eastern Canada. ECMWF showing lower-than-normal tropical cyclone activity for August from the Gulf through the Caribbean basin..... One more thing, the model is fairly consistent in forecasting a drier pattern in the Gulf and Caribbean through a good chunk of August and this is likely due to the presence of increased wind shear due to the suppressed westerlies and higher than normal sea surface pressures. To no surprise, the model is predicting only 40 to 60 percent of normal tropical storm activity in this region for most of August. By the way, water temperatures in the basin are fairly close to normal, but we have been seeing above-normal wind shear and dry air/dust over the past couple of weeks, which are certainly inhibiting any serious development. Keep in mind though, it is still July and the tropics usually wait until the second week of August before things really start to get active. Hopefully, the ECMWF is right and it stays quiet through August. Brett Anderson's blog on accuweather. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/long-range-forecast-model-update-not-big-on-warming/15927728