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Seasonal forecasts are beginning to make their way out from respected scientists in the field to media and news outlets. The majority of specialists are predicting a hurricane season with above-normal activity. ENSO looks to be swinging neutral to perhaps even a La Niña by July-September. Western Atlantic subtropical and tropical SSTs are running above average overall with some particularly noticeable 2-3°+C deviations in the GOM and W. Caribbean. Could 2020 be hyperactive? AMO and NAO may present both favorable patterns for not only hurricanes in the MDR, but potential land threats to the W. Caribbean and GOM as well this season. Bermuda-Azores ridging may also dominate the SER/WAR steering pattern during Cape Verde season. This might be a year where we even see a few long-trackers reach Central America.
This winter could be a lot like the 2011-2012 winter, stay tuned for further updates.
Season snowfall totals (July-June) and December-March mean average temperatures for several cities in the eastern half of the U.S., sorted/defined by the CPC DJF (December-January-February) ONI index. Top 15 snowiest/least snowiest and coldest/warmest for each city are highlighted. Mean season snowfall and DJFM temperature values: 1949-50 to 2013-14 Mean average temperatures are calculated by an "average of days", rather than "average of months". If anyone sees any errors in the data presented, please let me know. CPC ONI data: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml City snowfall/temperature data: http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/# Season snowfall totals: Part I