beavis1729

I know many of you are focused on Dallas and Houston, but south of there in TX it has been a brutally hot and humid summer. Corpus Christi has had excessive heat warnings nearly every day for the past month. Besides hot temperatures, the humidity has been crazy due to above normal GOM temps. Constant dew points between 76-82 for weeks on end…not sure how people can deal with this.

Same here, definitely noticeable and very bad.

Drought Information Statement National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 1114 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023 /1214 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023/ ...Moderate to Severe Drought Conditions Now Exist Across Portions of Northeast Illinois and Northwest Indiana... SYNOPSIS... Many areas of northern Illinois northwest and Indiana have received significantly below average rainfall since the beginning of spring. For example, Midway Airport in Chicago, Illinois, has recorded just 2.72 inches of precipitation since April 1, which is 7.1 inches below the 30-year average and the second lowest since the early 1900s. Similar rainfall deficits are present across much of northeast Illinois and far northwest Indiana. Drought conditions have thus further deteriorated across much of the area. Severe drought conditions are now present across portions of far northeastern Illinois and far northwestern Indiana, including the Chicago metropolitan area. Severe drought conditions are now present in multiple areas in northern Illinois and northwest Indiana, including the Chicago metropolitan area. Moderate drought conditions cover corridor from west central Illinois through northern Indiana outside of the severe drought area. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... Volunteer observers across the area indicate lower than typical water levels in ponds and streams. Reports also indicate that some lawns have gone dormant. There has also been stress to trees and shrubs. Limited impacts to agriculture have been reported, including reduced growth rates. Data available from the Illinois State Water Survey, USGS, and NCEP indicate that soil moisture, groundwater, and surface water levels remain below normal. CLIMATE SUMMARY... Over the last 30 days, rainfall in northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana has ranged from 5% to 75% of average. The most significant rainfall deficits over the last 30 days were located near the Chicago metro area, including Cook, DuPage, Will, and Lake (IL) counties. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... There are only very limited chances for rainfall over the next 7 days, with amounts across the greater Midwest region generally forecast to be less than 0.5 inches. Dry and warm conditions are forecast next week, with highs in the 80s. The Climate Prediction Center`s (CPC) 30-Day Outlook indicates no strong signal for above or below average preciptiation over the next 6-10 days or the next 7-14 days. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... For most rivers in northern Illinois streamflow values are below average for this time of year. Multiple small streams are near the lowest observed streamflow levels for mid-June. Without additional rainfall, river and stream levels will remain below average or slowly fall. At many locations, groundwater and soil moisture remain below average. Without additional rainfall, soil moisture and groundwater levels will remain at low levels.

Kingsville TX was 101/81/125 earlier today…wow.

Even worse today, 100/81/123 in Kingsville and 108/74/122 in Cotulla...and sunny skies in both places.

Horrible heat and humidity in TX…Kingsville is currently 101/79/121.

A general comment, not just directed at you: most people on this forum know their climo. But if you’re a warm weenie (or snow, severe, etc.), climo isn’t good enough. It’s just how life goes. If you’re a sports fan, an average season isn’t good enough. You don’t play the game for an average season, you play to win it all. And if you enjoy something in life, you want more of it. I like chocolate, so eating an average amount of chocolate isn’t good enough. I know these are strange analogies, but it’s reality.

In addition to setting a new seasonal snowfall record, Duluth finished in 2nd place for 1"+ snow cover days. Unless there's an unusual snow event over the next couple of weeks, this season will end with 157 days. The record is 167 days in 1995-96. And, Duluth finished with 151 consecutive days of 1"+ snow cover (Nov 15th through April 14th). As impressive as this is, it falls quite a bit short of the record 164 days in 1995-96 (Nov 10th through April 21st). Both of those 1995-96 records will be very difficult to break.

Yeah…as much as we both seem to enjoy the wonder of snow and cold, even I’m ready for some warmth by April. By then, the days are long no matter where you are in the northern hemisphere…so it doesn’t seem like winter needs to hang around. Give me deep winter from November to March, then 60s and 70s the rest of the year.

Nice gradient across Nebraska. Currently 89F in Falls City and 23F in Chadron. Edit: 91F in Falls City and 21F in Gordon at 5pm.

Yep…unfortunately they’re reporting M the last few days in the climo record after the 62” depth on 3/25.

Interesting...a few thoughts: - I think UHI still exists for max temps, even as I agree it's a bit less of an impact vs. min temps. A huge example is MSP - you'll often see temps (even during the day and especially during winter) that are several degrees warmer than surrounding areas. But it probably can't explain the entire +6.6F increase. Regardless of the debate on whether UHI introduces bias into climate change data, I strongly believe that UHI itself is a horrible thing. It's sad that humans can impact temperatures in a city that much. - The Chicago data is probably not very useful, as the official ob site was downtown and right on the lake during the 1800s. So, max temps were lower due to lake breezes, especially during the spring/March. I believe the ob site moved to Midway Airport later in the 1900s, before going to ORD in 1980. Midway and ORD experience some lake cooling in the spring, but not nearly as much as the immediate lakeshore. - Is it possible to look at some other non-urban locations with long PORs - such as INL or other small cities in WI, MI, IN, IA? Even Rockford IL and any metro suburban areas expereince significant UHI. Of course, if UHI is a significant driver of warmth where people actually live, it's bad. I'm just trying to parse out what is UHI driven warming vs. overall "background" Earth warming.

Yeah...in most NDJFM periods, it's above freezing for a decent amount of time. Normal high is in the low 40s on 11/1 and 3/31, and it's not horrendously cold (25F) even in mid-January. But this season, above-freezing temps have been very rare...primarily because November, February, and March have been so cold relative to normal. And when it does get above 32F, it's only for an hour or two each day. Here are some quick stats: Between 11/2/22 and 3/28/23, only 13 days have been above 36F. Warmest was 42F on Mar 20. It hit -49F and -44F on Dec 22-23 respectively. Nov 2022 actual average max/min = 29.4/-2.6, departure -10.0 Dec 2022 actual average max/min = 23.4/1.6, departure -1.7 Jan 2023 actual average max/min = 25.5/-0.3, departure -0.9 Feb 2023 actual average max/min = 28.1/-6.7, departure -5.7 Mar 2023 actual average max/min = 31.7/-2.0, departure -8.8 so far (although there are a few days with M in mid-March)

Still deep winter in the Upper Midwest. Low temps this morning: Grand Forks ND -9F (12" snow depth) Bemidji MN -6F Fargo ND -6F (20" snow depth) INL -5F (23" snow depth)

Yeah, would be great to experience winter there. And you’d definitely avoid the peak season crowds. I was there in early June 2018…with bluebird sunny days punctuated by an occasional afternoon shower, then plummeting temps after sunset. You could almost feel the temperature drop in real time.

West Yellowstone MT has 62” on the ground, and has essentially stayed below freezing constantly since November. As you said, an amazing winter out there. I mention West Yellowstone because I love that town…right outside of the park. Such a beautiful part of the country. High valley location that often drops into the 30s even in July.

The 1981-82 winter (3rd on the above list) was a beast for MSP, highlighted by extreme cold and two large snowstorms in January. Duluth is now at 133 consecutive days with 1"+ snow cover, with 32" still on the ground. They could hit 150 days when all is said and done, assuming a major thaw doesn't occur over the next two weeks. Record is 164 consecutive days, from 11/10/1995 to 4/21/1996. Duluth's seasonal snowfall is 125.4" so far; the record is within sight (135.4" in 1995-96).

No, ORD’s max temp this March is only 56. Only 8 other Marches over the past 150 years have had a lower monthly max…but a lot of historical March monthly max temps are in the 57-59 range. So, it’s a bit unusual…but not unprecedented.

Let’s see if the RAP has any clue

Similar seasonal snowfall gradient in the Midwest this year. Downtown Chicago is around 10" for the season, while MSP will likely finish in the Top 5. The gradient of SDDs this season is even crazier: Chicago (ORD): 42 Madison WI: 205 MSP: 947

^ 6z GFS shows temps of -15 to -20 in ND at Day 7. I imagine that's not very common for March 28th.

Today is the 111th consecutive day with 1”+ of snow cover at MSP, and the 120th day overall for the season. Looks like 1 or 2 more days may be added before the streak ends. *Edit to add 2022-23 1"+ snow cover stats for Duluth and International Falls, through March 20th: DLH: 126 consecutive days, 126 total days for the season INL: 130 consecutive days, 130 total days for the season

^ Snow magnet probably due to your relatively high elevation. Adds a bit of orographic lift to snow events in your area, no matter which direction the wind is coming from. Plus, on marginal temp events you may stay snow while nearby areas are mix or rain.