beavis1729

Good point; I think the answer is probabilistic forecasts. And if John Q Public doesn’t have the skill set to understand probabilities and why that approach is needed in certain situations, then it’s on them.

Normally, I hear you. But when DJF disappoints (which it often does), there's a need to make up for it in Nov/March. There's always a reason to lower the bar - "the lake is too warm before Dec 15th", "average temps and/or sun angle are increasing quickly after Feb 15th", bad pattern, Index ABCDEFG isn't timed perfectly, on and on and on and on. How refreshing it would be if we actually had a sacred part of winter with no worries about the pattern - it's just winter because of the calendar. We don't have this for literally any day. I'd like it for all of DJF, much less one fooking sacred day. So, I'm batting 0 for 90 - not good odds. Heck, it was 60 degrees in early Jan 2008 - at the coldest time of the year. That's not supposed to happen. It seems like every DJF has several days over 40F, even in good/decent months...which just isn't right. Feb 2015 was great. Not saying every Feb needs to be like that - but Feb 2015 should be closer to "expected" than Feb 2023, that's for sure. We need to turn around the PNA and AMO to have any hope for better times ahead. Back to your regularly scheduled programming...

Ha ha - all good, not personal or anything...I just detest our climo and our low standards for winter. When we have a 980 low in the location where it's at, we should be hoping for/expecting something similar to GHD 1, or Jan 1999...or at minimum a widespread 6-12" storm with no worries about a tiny jackpot area, or temps being marginal, etc. This is what I mean about everyone's expectations being so low. It drives me crazy. We should all be furious about this storm/setup.

Couldn't have said it better myself...yet another ****** F winter imby too. As you suggested, maybe a D-- at best, due to the White Christmas...but then we're just playing into the forum's new mindset these days and mindlessly accepting the ridiculously low bar. And it was only 1-2" of depth anyway.

I guess...but it has sucked the entire winter.

Correct...as much as I hate to admit this reality. And, even if a certain location hits the jackpot, the snow will melt and/or lose its character within a couple days anyway. There's just no cold air anywhere. This has been the most pathetic winter for so many areas of the country south of 45N...it's just laughable. And I don't want to hear about how snowfall amounts technically aren't that much below normal for some areas; I'm talking the overall feel, temps, SDDs, tenor, etc. And ice storms don't matter, unless it's on top of snow on the ground (which wasn't the case). And I would still be relatively disappointed north of 45N; just too many thaws. If I lived in MSP, I'd go with B+...maybe A- at best due to the warmth.

I’ll take the bait. BowMe = UMB Wx. If so, I have no ill will…welcome back.

Ha ha…not often you see a 108 degree gradient.

Dallas was near 90 today, and it’s currently -18 in Bottineau ND. Not bad.

I wasn’t tuned in to the drama back then…could have been worse than I imagined. Others probably know better. Not trying to dig up gremlins from the past - just remembering the good times.

We need to bring BowMe, Geos, and daddylonglegs back to help the mojo in here. The good old days of 2013-14. And… ’copter

Do people really think that DJF temps right on the immediate lakeshore aren’t warmer than ORD, especially in the 1800s when there was no UHI at the present-day location of ORD? Or, that 4 of the 6 warmest winters in history all occurred in a 7-year span?? That points to the observation site being a factor. You know, how Alek celebrates going past Thanksgiving without a freeze, seemingly year after year? Of course it’s different in MAM, due to the lake breeze.

I’m not saying we throw them out…or that those 1800s winters weren’t mild.. but it’s well known that average temps in downtown Chicago are materially warmer than ORD, especially earlier in the winter due to marine influence (even with the increase in UHI at ORD over time). If the DJF temps in the 1800s were measured at present-day ORD, they would have been colder (especially at night)…especially since there was no UHI at this location back then. Regardless of these details, I’m most upset about the fact that there were mild winters in the 1800s. I keep hoping these recent obnoxiously mild winters are a fluke…but unfortunately they don’t seem to be.

I would throw out (or at least asterisk) the warm DJFs from the 1800s, as the official measurements were influenced heavily by the downtown and/or lakeside location. Similar to Logan Airport for Boston. That’s why 5 of the top 6 warmest DJFs occurred in the late 1800s. It’s not as if all of those winters were warmer than some of our recent clunkers, apples to apples. Regardless, this list highlights how bad the winter climo is for downtown Chicago. It’s already bad enough inland…

This event looks to mimic the infamous January 1999 storm, but 150 miles further north.

Thank you sir. What timeframe are you focusing on…weeks 1-2, 3-5, or both? Unfortunately recent op runs (FWIW) seem to hinting at a strong warm up next week. Would be great if the weeklies were going against this idea.

FYP

I look at it differently. Ideally, I would like 4 months of winter (11/15 to 3/15), as we don’t have nearly enough of it. To me, the idea of “winter” means a generally consistent and dependable period with snow on the ground, with frozen lakes and ponds. Currier and Ives stuff. Doesn’t mean every single day has to have high temp below freezing…but winter is such a short and up-and-down season in my neck of the woods. For instance, we may get 2-3” of snow tomorrow, but then it will melt in a couple days. And we’ve had bare ground for much of the season so far. That drives me crazy. If it were November or March, no problem…but I prefer a reliable wintry “feel” in DJF. Then let the warm mongers enjoy the other 9 months. We can get good wintry events and periods imby, but it’s not consistent enough. Unfortunately, you need to live at 45N or further north in the Midwest for that. So, I’m not really ready for spring until 3/15. By that point, the daylight gets so long that you can’t really fight the season anymore. Our climo (even in northern IL) isn’t great for winter…so we might as well root for as much of it as possible.

I relate to your frustration. For me personally, it's not that exciting since it's still winter the last I checked...and any snow that falls will melt in two days. It's fine for this to happen on 11/15 or 3/15, but not mid-Feb. And, the heaviest (while not 100% certain) will likely be north of mby. The pattern next week could get interesting, but unfortunately we're getting to the point in the season where you really need a great pattern to continue in order to keep the snow around. I know my reply is drenched in cynicism and pessimism, and I applaud your optimism. But that's what years and years of horrible winters do to you.

Yeah, unfortunately the key words are something and trying. 12z Canadian op has a crazy temp gradient at hour 180…80s in TX, 20s here, subzero in MN.

Yeah, sounds about right.

I do - because South Bend has only had 6 days with 6"+ of snow cover...and they were all in November. That's almost hard to believe when you've had 47" of snow for the season...but it's the same culprit again - way too many thaws. Like the rest of us south of 45N, they've essentially had no winter during DJF. This is example #50,000 which shows that our climo problem is temps, not snowfall...and that snow totals don't always correlate to the tenor of a winter.

Ha, ran it from my basement but the GPS fix was off a bit. One pixel in SE MN showed 90”.

I can relate to that - and I'm 48, not getting any younger. Thankfully I have a stable job and am in fairly good health, so I have the luxury of caring about first-world problems. I guess when you love something a lot, you get emotionally invested. Probably not the smartest or most logical thing to do - but a lot of my job is logical and analytical, so I need an outlet for the emotional side. At ORD - for the period 12/1/22 to 2/15/23 (based on this week’s forecast), only 38% of these days will have a high temp colder than 35F. That is ridiculous. How can it be winter unless at least 80% of these days…and ideally more…are colder than 35F. It's hard to be ok with this. Even if it were as low as 70%, that would be understandable (yet still disappointing)…but 38% is unacceptable. It illustrates my main point throughout all of this - south of 45N, we’re shockingly far away from winter should be – it’s laughable and frustrating to no end. Not even close. It would be great if it wasn't ever above freezing in January, and if it never rains during DJF. If these things occur rarely, that’s fine…despite my wishes. In that case, it's ok to reduce standards a bit, and be somewhat realistic. But at some point, it becomes blatant grade inflation and unacceptable. Let’s just reduce our standards so far that winter only needs to be colder than fall. Hooray – we win!! It sucks - and I hate pretending it's ok, because then it feels like an admission that I've given up on Mother Nature and the hope & beauty of winter. Am I a weenie for thinking it shouldn’t rain more than a day or two during the winter? If so, guilty as charged…but to me, that’s a perfectly reasonable wish. I’m not suggesting we need to see 200” of snow every season with blizzards and brutal cold day after day. But it sucks to see puddles during winter – it’s not natural. Even though the 2022-23 winter has definitely been Exhibit A of crap, this general theme has essentially been true for the past 8 winters. It eats at you when it's long-lasting. Sure, we’ve seen some “wintry periods” during these years…but that’s not what the winter season is supposed to represent. Yes, the good periods are great, and they are welcome and appreciated…but the rest of the time winter seems to go MIA. It can’t be all or nothing from week to week. On August 8th, no one is worried about the EPO, PDO, AMO, ENSO state, etc. 99 out of 100 times, you know it will be warm on August 8th. Yes, there could be the fluke Pinatubo summer, or an occasional rain-cooled day (which will still be humid)…but no one thinks about the million things that need to go right. This is how winter should be too – it’s only 3 months out of the year. Let it be sacred. It’s understandable for November and March/April to be up and down – but not DJF. But that adds another problem - because DJF have been so bad recently, there’s a huge need to make up for it in November, March, and April. It shouldn’t need to be this way – but what else are you going to do? Assuming we love winter (which is mainly why we’re here in the first place?), I think we have every right to complain and be sad about what is going on. Then, add that the NWS or the public doesn’t care about our crappy winters – it’s just insult to injury. I hate seeing AFDs which say “thankfully, the cold temps will be short-lived”. Boo fooking hoo – it’s cold during the winter. Not that the NWS (or the public) should be expected to care…but since they don’t, we need to take up the cause here. There’s nowhere else to vent. The irony is that, in northern WI, it’s the reverse. The public actually gets very upset when winter isn’t occurring, just like me. Amazing – they enjoy winter and being outside to experience it! That’s another topic entirely...