beavis1729

Yep - ORD's low was 74 this morning...same as yesterday. And today's low should hold through 1 AM tonight - although dews may come down a bit later, so it could be close. Old record high mins: May 11th: 70, set in 1881 May 12th: 66, set in 1956 Not often you break a daily record by 8F, especially with a POR of 150 years. And Rockford's high of 94 yesterday is the hottest day so early in the season in the past 88 years (it hit 96 on 5/9/1934). Even more amazing - if Rockford's low temp this morning (74) holds, it will set a new May monthly record for the warmest min. Current record is 73 on 5/22/1905. In fact, there have only been 5 May days in Rockford's history with a daily min of 70+. With all that said, I think there's a decent chance (1 in 4?) of dropping below 74 prior to 1 AM.

Yep, good point. It’s 90/73/100 here, just before noon…unbelievable.

Assuming it holds through midnight (which should be no problem), ORD and RFD both shattered their warmest min on record for so early in the season. Low temps this morning, May 11th: - ORD 74; previous earliest low temp this warm was 74 on 5/19/1911. - RFD 72; previous earliest low temp this warm was 72 on 5/18/1996. Meanwhile, it has been very cold out west. West Yellowstone MT dropped to 7 yesterday morning, and Eureka CA (right on the coast) dropped to 37.

Yuck - incredible to see a dew of 74 on May 10th. 88/70/95 here.

Rockford could set record warm mins for 4 consecutive days. Here are the records, going back to 1906: 5/10: 65 in 1979 (today's low 68 so far) 5/11: 63 in 2011 5/12: 64 in 2004 5/13: 63 in 1991

Amarillo TX is currently 84/20, RH 9%...and there's a frost advisory for tonight (around 35F)...then back up to 75 tomorrow.

Embarrass (one of the coldest towns in MN) dropped to 10 this morning, helped by some modest snow cover. This is their 2nd coldest temp on record so late in the season...although records only go back to 1994. It was 4F on 4/27/2004...wow. Their normal low in January is -9.

Dropped to 29 this morning...not bad for April 27th.

Update: INL has broken the record, as April 20th is the 160th consecutive day with 3"+ snow cover. Amazingly, the depth has actually increased throughout April...now at 17". It was 15" on 4/1. Looks like the streak will end on 4/24, as temps in the 50s with high dews will probably obliterate the snow pack. Also, a new daily record low of 8F on 4/19; old record was 15F set in 1947. This is also the 3rd coldest temp on record so late in the season for INL. The only colder mins were 4F on 4/20/2013 and 6F on 4/23/1909.

Yeah, it has been an unbelievable week up there. Bismarck didn't see as much snow (only around 20"), but the cold temps there have shattered daily records. It's even more impressive because the period of record goes back 148 years, to 1874. - April 15th: Max temp 25. Old record was 32, set in 2011. - April 16th: Min temp 0. Old record was 10, set in 1953. Coldest temp so late in the season, by far…as the previous latest 0F or colder was -1 on 4/5/1996. - April 18th: Min temp 6. Old record was 12, set in 1988. 2nd coldest temp so late in the season (min of 4 on 4/19/1928).

And Bismarck dropped to 0 this morning. Old record was 10, set in 1953. It’s also their coldest temp so late in the season, by far…as the previous latest 0F or colder was -1 on 4/5/1996. Records go back nearly 150 years, to 1874.

Based on the forecast over the upcoming week, INL will set a new record for consecutive days with 3”+ of snow cover. The streak will definitely hit 158 days, maybe even 160 if everything breaks right. Previous record was 157 days in 1995-96 (11/10/95 to 4/14/96).

Not sure if any stats are available on this...but INL has to be close to their all-time record for consecutive days with 3" of snow cover. Snow depth was 3" on 11/12/21, peaked at 26" on 2/22/22, and was still 11" on 4/13/22. That's 152 consecutive days, and counting. With chilly temps in the near-term forecast, the streak could continue until April 20th...or even a bit later.

Looks like much of ND ended up with 18-30" of snow. Highest report so far is Glenburn at 30.5", with 3 NNW Minot at 30"...and it's still snowing. Record low max temps could be shattered tomorrow, and record lows could be shattered on Saturday morning. Here is Bismarck, as an example: - 4/15 record low max 32, set in 2011; forecast high 25 - 4/16 record low 10, set in 1953; forecast low 7

Yeah…Minot ND is expecting 24-30” of snow. An incredible storm.

Point forecast for Minot ND…wow This Afternoon Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. Steady temperature around 26. Windy, with a northeast wind around 26 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible. Tonight Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. Low around 22. Windy, with a north wind 25 to 29 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible. Wednesday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. High near 29. Windy, with a north wind 28 to 38 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Wednesday Night Snow. Widespread blowing snow, mainly between 9pm and 1am. Low around 19. Windy, with a northwest wind 28 to 34 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Historic storm coming for parts of ND : URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Bismarck ND 228 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022 NDZ001>005-009>013-120400- /O.CON.KBIS.BZ.W.0005.220413T0000Z-220415T0000Z/ Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward- McHenry-Pierce- Including the cities of Parshall, Glenburn, Dunseith, Sherwood, Minot, New Town, Columbus, Shell Valley, St. John, Portal, Lignite, Rugby, Rolette, Drake, Towner, Velva, Mohall, Bowbells, Rolla, Crosby, Powers Lake, Stanley, Williston, and Bottineau 228 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow and blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations between 12 and 24 inches, with locally higher amounts up to 30 inches possible. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. * WHERE...Northwest and north central North Dakota. * WHEN...From 7 PM Tuesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Travel will become very difficult to impossible. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. Notify a friend or family member of your travel plans. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle. The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

April Fools (?)

No…the “default” is 33% chance below normal, 33% chance near normal, and 33% chance above normal. So, an outlook of “40% probability of being below normal” is actually saying that there’s a slightly greater chance of being below normal vs. the default…since the default is only a 33% chance of being below normal. The other interesting thing about these probabilistic outlooks is that they don’t tell you anything about *how much* above or below normal it’s projected to be. For example, if you see an outlook showing an 80% chance of being below normal on temps, it’s a strong signal that it will be colder than normal…but you don’t know if this means 5F below normal, or 25F below normal.

With 25" of snow on the ground, INL dropped to -8 this morning. A bit wintry for March 28th. Ely hit -11. Amazingly enough, INL has been even colder later in the season. Some examples below, with records going back to 1897. As expected, the April 1982 arctic outbreak shows up. -21 on 3/31/1975 (!) -14 on 4/3/1954 -12 on 4/2/1954 -11 on 4/6/1982 -9 on 4/7/1982 INL's latest sub-zero temp on record was 4/8/2018 (-3)...a good illustration of how anomalous 1982 was.

Thanks for posting this, Bo. That is beautifully written; humble poetry that captures a deep connection with nature.

On some level, cold and snow are linked...as you need a good amount of fresh snow cover imby and upstream to maximize the cold potential (whether advective or radiational). While Jan and Feb were a bit below normal here (though still not truly cold), there was too little snow here to maximize the cold potential. We never had more than 3" on the ground at any point. And Dec was horrible; that month ruined winter here.

Yeah - that's a good summary, imo. It's getting at the idea that you can’t really have a meaningful winter season (landscape, frozen ponds, reliable snow cover, etc.) without cold. Actual liquid precip averages during the cold season really don’t matter that much in the end. Of course, more precip is better, all else being equal...but cold is the key. The concept is “sacred” winter days. In other words, if you were dropped into a town on a specific calendar date (say Feb 5th), would you be able to count on the fact that it would look and feel like winter? There could be many definitions of this...but in my mind, it means a 90% chance of a high temp of 35F or lower AND 2”+ snow cover on a specific date. No anxiety about the weather pattern being a certain way, etc.; you just know it will be wintry outside, in line with what it’s supposed to be because the calendar says it’s winter. Sure, you could have an anomalous pattern every so often (like March 2012)…which is why I am only using a 90% threshold instead of 100%. Using this definition, nearly all non-mountainous locations in the lower 48 south of 44N have zero sacred winter calendar dates. There is a huge gradient of this metric across the upper Midwest…because far northern MN probably has close to 100 sacred winter calendar dates…whereas southern WI has zero. This is a great illustration of why I get so frustrated in winter here - because the gradient is so extreme, as the crow flies. So close, yet so far. But in some ways, the gradient is also good news - because hopefully those of us who want more sacred winter dates can move only a bit further north to get it. That's my plan when I hopefully retire from day-to-day work in the next 5 years. Looking at sacred winter days in Chicago as an example - the coldest calendar dates in the year (mid-Jan) only have a 65% chance of a high temp 35F or colder. Adding the 2” snow cover condition reduces the % even more. So, it falls well short of the 90% threshold. And in early Feb, temps start warming up, even as there’s a somewhat higher chance of 2” snow cover…but then we just run out of time as the winter season fades away later in February. This all reminds me of Jonger's post from several years ago, showing a loop of snow cover during several winters in a row...where it sort of "pulses" down to 40N, then back up to 45N, then back down to 40N, maybe 38N occasionally. But MBY (42.2N) is always on the edge, when you view a quick time-lapse of seasonal snowcover. The big exception is 1978-79...a 1-in-100+ year event where MBY had snow cover on 110 consecutive days, and Chicago had snowcover for 100 consecutive days. Like you said, it's seasons in seasons - we can always count on essentially every calendar date in July and August (at a minimum) to be summerlike, but we can’t count on any specific calendar dates in winter to be winter-like. I actually like all seasons - I just want them to be equal in length. 90 days of sacred summer, and 90 days of sacred winter. And having highs in the 20s - 40s most days, with occasional snow cover, isn’t winter. Of course, everything is personal preference in the end. You basically need average high temps in Jan to be 20-25F (and Dec & Feb with averages no warmer than 25-30F) in order to have a true wintry climate with consistent snow cover, in order to have a decent # of sacred winter calendar dates. That way, when you do get the occasional mild pattern, you don't torch (meaning no days over 40F). Unfortunately, Chicago's winter average temps are about 10 degrees too warm for that. Not saying there needs to be 4 feet of snow on the ground...but a reliable 5-10+" would be nice during most of DJF. A White Christmas is key - but at ORD, I think it's only about a 40% probability.

^ Those are incredible stats. Wisconsin also set its all time record low back then…I believe it was -55 in Couderay.

Yeah...and INL dropped to -40 again...breaking yesterday's record for the coldest temp so late in the season. Reminds me of the early Feb 1996 arctic outbreak, where the nights in northern MN were brutally cold but it warmed up quite a bit during the day. An even deeper snowpack back then (generally 30-40"), plus not as late in the season, plus the airmasses themselves were a bit colder. Some areas saw several nights of lows in the -40s to -50s.