It's Always Sunny

Cells starting to fire up...

I think July is optimistic (I was thinking as early as late August/early September) but if that EWB continues that robust end of July onset could be possible. Latter half of hurricane season should be interesting that’s for sure.

I think seeing mid-level lapse rates pushing 8.0C/km is more fascinating than the t-storms you'll be getting tomorrow as exciting as that is too.

Appears it will cover the same area as yesterday. Cross-over winds aren't eye-popping but still enough to generate some tors.

Wow

Haha I wish! Next couple weeks may be relatively quiet here but climo can do amazing things sometimes.

Good thing Sox aren't playing they'd be making snow angels on the field.

Hey on the bright side of things this could lead to a couple marginal to slight risk days for some . I know Wiz will adhere to that haha.

Pattern is late to the party you guys could've used that this winter. This is just a sputtering end to a dreadful winter for most.

Yeah I started noticing that possibly happening last week and today I was looking at the subtropical jet and it loses it's steam next week which further dampens any severe risk, at least here in the Plains however with some troughing remaining over the Southeast there still remains a possibility they get a day or two of severe potential, even with a "weakened" subtropical jet. This "lull" has the potential to spill into the first week of May based on what I was looking at but too far out for me to put much stock in it at this time.

I was surprised myself. HRRR is showing the strongest gust potential with a LLJ around 50kts that would presumably mix down to meet severe criteria, but yet it also has the steepest low level lapse rates which the other models aren't as steep. You can make a case for it. Although the other models aren't showing as strong of a gust potential, if they get some good low level WAA that could steepen lapse rates enough to mix down some of those stronger winds. We'll see, but not overly optimistic.

Upgraded to slight risk Wiz

That's what you call a happy ending

I think small hail is in the cards like you said above because nearly every ingredient for hailstone development is there except good CAPE. I don't see any chance of large hail although nothing wrong with wishful thinking I've been there before lol.