It's Always Sunny

How long is a Modoki cycle typically? CFS forecast through end of November weakens the Modoki like you mentioned above.

I can see a weak El Nino (or Modoki?) redeveloping in the coming months based on westerly winds pickup up a bit and ushering warmer water east. It appears there is a downwelling Kelvin wave approaching eastern Pacific.

We're still trying to get below 70F here lol. Monday morning looks promising.

Anybody know how to save this image? Twitter won't let me save it...

I always felt that this was on the table. Even when the models shifted everything east I had a hard time buying into it despite the synoptic reasoning behind it. This storm is a beast with a lot of inertial momentum despite its slow progression west I find it hard that the trough traversing the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and weakening HP to the north will carry it north without grazing the FL coast at the very least. Plus the retrograding Bermuda High beginning on Tuesday could nudge it even further west. I really feel the UKMO Ens illustrates a realistic solution. Even this ICON model which I have never analyzed before I think has a realistic track. I haven't looked at what else it is selling but those Germans are smart people lol.

UKMO still has ensemble members to the west which I think will be the trend with newer model guidance. It's been doing fairly well with this storm. Also keeping an eye on the Bermuda High retrograding to the west beginning Tuesday evening competing with a building ridge over the Central Plains which could determine east/west variations with the track.

Yeah it is. I can easily see this storm slowly nudging west again and riding up along the Florida coast as it was modeled yesterday. Lots of different things at play right now between the strengthening of this storm, its speed, the timing of the ridge to the north breaking down/moving east and the impact of the upper trough that will be pushing east when the storm is set to begin its northward track. I'm also keeping an eye on the progression of the ridge pattern over the GOM as subtle as it seems that could be a small factor in how far west that storm moves. It only takes one subtle change and that storm will be back to where it was yesterday.

UKMET ensemble member picked up on this storm shift to the north which you don't see often. Pretty much defines the elusiveness of this storm in the past 24 hours. GFS brings 9"+ to SC coast. Euro floods Apalachee Bay. Enjoying this one...

Think these are birds on the HGX radar this morning...

It's back up now!

Does anyone know if the Iowa State feed is down? BUFKIT data is from 7/18 when I grab data...

I'm not sure my answer is 100% correct but from my experience it is more about the timing than the distance apart. What I mean by timing is how long it takes for that second line to pass through the same environment the first line did. Generally that second line would weaken as it pushes east due to the fact of the first line eats up all the moisture and instability ahead of it. However, looking at previous models it was ridiculously unstable across that geographic area when those two lines passed through to where it would be hard for that first squall line to work over the atmosphere enough. Those lines were also moving really fast so it's not like that first line had time to work over the atmosphere enough either. Also the LLJ was very strong which definitely fueled those lines. Personally, I would consider this event an anomaly. I'm sure other mets can correct me or add onto this but I hope my explanation helps a bit at least!

I read that in several cases it outperformed the Euro for tropical systems in regards to model forecast error so I'm expecting good things with it. Here is one article I read that highlights a lot of new features: https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn19-40gfs_v15_1.pdf

Don't the new equations enhance the resolution to a certain degree though despite it still having a resolution of 13km in the horiztonal and 64 in vertical?

Pretty sure I saw the crane when I was in that area yesterday. Also a billboard toppled over on a gas station just by Love Field. It was nasty here. Going to check PWS when I get home and see what it recorded but it tends to undervalue due to nearby trees, houses, etc. Some people at work who drove through it thought it could've been a tornado but it's easy to confuse when you have wind blowing rain at your windshield at 70+mph.