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About It's Always Sunny

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Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
KDFW
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Gender
Male
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Location:
Dallas, TX
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Hm ok try this link https://weatherchest.weebly.com/ I have it posted on my MA blog too if that one doesn’t work: http://www.baystatewx.blogspot.com .
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First shot at it. Enjoy! https://weatherchest.weebly.com/home/preliminary-winter-outlook-2022-2023
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I think it's too early to write anything off but when you take potential ENSO phase, -IOD, +QBO just to name a few teleconnections I'd lean towards an average season with potential for above average. ENSO will still be presumably weak La Nina, maybe neutral, which generally fares well for New England. Remember, you can have a temperature forecast be "above average", but it'll still be cold enough for snow most of the time. *EDIT* I also want to add that the years a +QBO & La Niña overlapped is only a three-year dataset which is very small so I would not put a lot of stock into that. If you just look at +QBO alone the setup is rather favorable.
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NMME generally does pretty good. Looking back to May it's done a rather stellar job for most of the country without getting into specifics.
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It's Always Sunny started following Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture
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Something quick I threw together. Just keep in mind this focuses mainly on the QBO as a stand-alone along with possible ENSO influence. I haven’t yet sifted through the bulk of the teleconnection indices/models I usually refer to for a seasonal outlook. Time allowing I’ll try and put something together. https://baystatewx.blogspot.com/2022/08/qbo-and-its-potential-implications-on.html?spref=tw
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Texas/Oklahoma Discussion & Obs Thread 2022
It's Always Sunny replied to It's Always Sunny's topic in Central/Western States
Wow models blew this one. Displayed are 00Z 3km-NAM & 06Z TTU WRF. Couple HRW models had no convection in S TX either. HRW FV3 & GFS were wayyyy too far north with convection. 18Z guidance yesterday was even better than these two models shown. -
Texas/Oklahoma Discussion & Obs Thread 2022
It's Always Sunny replied to It's Always Sunny's topic in Central/Western States
There is a lot of mid-upper level dry air which has been modeled the entire time but it's saturated high enough to precipitate. From a weather geek standpoint it's not often you see a bone dry mid-upper level sounding with a low level stratiform deck that begins as liquid water and reaches the surface as sleet or freezing rain. It's more frequent to see precipitation begin as snow, melt and refreeze. Thankfully this stratiform type of setup allows everything to be light with low QPF amounts. However, to get sleet we will need some ice crystals which may be hard to attain given the static look to soundings. You would need colder temperatures in the boundary layer and likely slightly better lift than modeled to get the ice crystals necessary for that to materialize, otherwise we're looking at FZRA or FZDZ. -
Texas/Oklahoma Discussion & Obs Thread 2022
It's Always Sunny replied to It's Always Sunny's topic in Central/Western States
Yeah the ECMWF hasn't done well with these shallow, cold air masses which explains why they are leaning colder. NAM could be too cold but I think leaning that way is good at the current lead time. -
Feb 13-14 snowstorm/nor’easter potential
It's Always Sunny replied to George001's topic in New England
2-4" for BOS looking more reasonable based off 00Z suite. -
December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas
It's Always Sunny replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Highs in the 40s isn't cold enough for you? . DFW may get close to 80F I'm loving every bit of it -
Southern Plains Winter 2021-2022
It's Always Sunny replied to Iceresistance's topic in Central/Western States
I think we're close to a lock to break the latest freeze record which is Jan 4th (1972). -
Meh on this potential IVT. Sniffing snizzle.