It's Always Sunny

I haven't analyzed the PDO in a while and its affects as of late but for the sake of Northeast cold (and perhaps snow), wouldn't we want to see more of a +PDO signature to mitigate the strength of La Nina? Generally New England does better during weak La Nina/ENSO neutral setups. A -PDO would only enhance La Nina, and possibly make it more central Pacific based which is what we don't want.

Read your recent blog. Great information. Added it to my site. Thanks!

All things considered I think the Northeast (and even down here in TX) is in for an eventful winter. I've seen more signs pointing to one than not.

You can't realistically take those active periods where we got dumped on then add them all up and be like, "that's the ceiling". Winters in New England, especially eastern MA don't work like that. Even in the "highly active" winters, there is a lot of ebb and flow. That's like saying a baseball player who one season mashes 40 HRs before the All-Star break then only hits 15 the second half. And then the next season he hits 15 HRs before the All-Star break then hits 30 after. His ceiling wouldn't be 70 HRs. It's not realistic.

Maybe Blue Hill, but that's about it. I think the ceiling can realistically only be slightly above the max ever recorded which I think was 108" or something like that.

Just for my own benefit what are your sources? I'm interested in reading more about it/analyzing it closer via composite plots if you have those.

Generally when you have a SSWE a -NAO/-AO results from it. I definitely think we could see some anomalous cold work its way into N TX again this winter. Chances are it won't be as extreme but I think some record setting days are possible. I actually just wrote up a blog highlighting my thoughts: https://weatherchest.weebly.com/home/archives/09-2021

Next week ftw and it's when I'm back in town. I bring fall to all.

Came across this time-lapse of the current valley fog/stratus fractus in Pemi Valley, NH (near Plymouth). Notice the chaotic motion of the fog/clouds; it's pretty cool.

IOD looks like it will be neutral to negative this winter which constructively interferes with the MJO which is good for amplifying the jet.

Antecedent Gulf hurricanes lol

Those links aren't working for me.

That's a very strange analog lol. I'm not discounting your findings and this may come off as ignorant but I just find it hard to believe tropical systems in the Gulf are correlated with wintertime cold snaps. If anything, it seems more like a coincidence to me. To your last point, it could be something with the MJO/ATL subtropical high orientation though. I honestly haven't looked. My focus usually lies more on the happenings in the upper latitudes & stratosphere when it comes to predicting cold for the south but the atmosphere certainly works in strange ways.

I'm with ya I think this winter has the potential to bring some memorable events despite La Nina. Am I fully confident on that? Not at all but early prospects imply it's a possibility. Recent NMME plot for DJF shows cold anomalies over Alaska. I made a post on twitter but with the right synoptic setup, SSW or strato stretching event we could see some of that cold spill south into the Plains. That's not to mention SEAS5 forecast showing potential precursors to a strato stretching event, which based on a recent study have been increasing over the years. Stretching events are known to help usher that anomalous cold further south (similar to the Big Freeze in February). Personally I don't put a lot of credence in La Nina for here. You can have a warm winter overall but it just takes the right setup to get a cold snap here.

For those that don't understand anomaly maps: