It's Always Sunny

CAMS did a bad job on this event. HRRR catching onto it 2 hours out doesn't count as a "hit" in my book.

Yeah I've been following that too. 21Z sounding doesn't show much difference than from 18Z but radar already shows cells popping near SPS.

Just noticed the SPC has a slight over NE TX though. Will be interesting to see how that materializes.

You may not want to go around saying that word this far out lol. Looks more like a potential panhandle snow event as of now.

Thanks for this. Would elevation difference make a difference so in this case it would be 3000ft.

Have been having a hard time finding this online so figured I'd ask here. I am looking for a bulk shear equation to subtract two wind vectors with their wind directions included as well. An example would be: What is the bulk shear between a 15kt wind out of the SW (220 degrees) at 5000 ft and a 40kt wind out of the W (270 degrees) at 8000ft? Thanks in advance.

So it appears that it is directly correlated with the EPO considering that index focuses on the area near AK?

Ok, I see it in the graphic above. Just north of Kamchatka Peninsula. My eyes were drawn to the positive anomalies not the negative. Thanks again! I don't have any direct questions yet; just familiarizing how to identify it at this time. When/if I do think of a question I'll be sure to let you know!

These are great links. Thank you! So identifying the WPO appears to be fairly straightforward: Ridging (positive height anomalies) south and east of Japan = +WPO Troughing (negative height anomalies) south and east of Japan = -WPO

WeatherGeek is pretty good too. Gives you access to different models.

Becoming more familiar with it. Can anyone explain what it is (positive and negative phases) as well as provide any research papers or websites that explain it well? Thanks in advance.

Looks like models have backed off on that idea...residual outflow not as impressive so only isolated-scattered stuff east of I-35 seems possible today. 4K NAM always seems to go bonkers with convection. HRRR seems to have a good grasp on today.

What do you consider cooling off here? 80's? lol

Yeah they still have yet to hit 100F. I think it only happened once last year there at the end of August so still got some time.

Finally hit 100F here a couple days ago. Late to the game but it was just a matter of time despite people saying DFW wasn't going to hit the century mark this year due to all the soil moisture.