It's Always Sunny

It's back up now!

Does anyone know if the Iowa State feed is down? BUFKIT data is from 7/18 when I grab data...

I'm not sure my answer is 100% correct but from my experience it is more about the timing than the distance apart. What I mean by timing is how long it takes for that second line to pass through the same environment the first line did. Generally that second line would weaken as it pushes east due to the fact of the first line eats up all the moisture and instability ahead of it. However, looking at previous models it was ridiculously unstable across that geographic area when those two lines passed through to where it would be hard for that first squall line to work over the atmosphere enough. Those lines were also moving really fast so it's not like that first line had time to work over the atmosphere enough either. Also the LLJ was very strong which definitely fueled those lines. Personally, I would consider this event an anomaly. I'm sure other mets can correct me or add onto this but I hope my explanation helps a bit at least!

I read that in several cases it outperformed the Euro for tropical systems in regards to model forecast error so I'm expecting good things with it. Here is one article I read that highlights a lot of new features: https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn19-40gfs_v15_1.pdf

Don't the new equations enhance the resolution to a certain degree though despite it still having a resolution of 13km in the horiztonal and 64 in vertical?

Pretty sure I saw the crane when I was in that area yesterday. Also a billboard toppled over on a gas station just by Love Field. It was nasty here. Going to check PWS when I get home and see what it recorded but it tends to undervalue due to nearby trees, houses, etc. Some people at work who drove through it thought it could've been a tornado but it's easy to confuse when you have wind blowing rain at your windshield at 70+mph.

CAMS did a bad job on this event. HRRR catching onto it 2 hours out doesn't count as a "hit" in my book.

Yeah I've been following that too. 21Z sounding doesn't show much difference than from 18Z but radar already shows cells popping near SPS.

Just noticed the SPC has a slight over NE TX though. Will be interesting to see how that materializes.

You may not want to go around saying that word this far out lol. Looks more like a potential panhandle snow event as of now.

Thanks for this. Would elevation difference make a difference so in this case it would be 3000ft.

Have been having a hard time finding this online so figured I'd ask here. I am looking for a bulk shear equation to subtract two wind vectors with their wind directions included as well. An example would be: What is the bulk shear between a 15kt wind out of the SW (220 degrees) at 5000 ft and a 40kt wind out of the W (270 degrees) at 8000ft? Thanks in advance.

So it appears that it is directly correlated with the EPO considering that index focuses on the area near AK?

Ok, I see it in the graphic above. Just north of Kamchatka Peninsula. My eyes were drawn to the positive anomalies not the negative. Thanks again! I don't have any direct questions yet; just familiarizing how to identify it at this time. When/if I do think of a question I'll be sure to let you know!

These are great links. Thank you! So identifying the WPO appears to be fairly straightforward: Ridging (positive height anomalies) south and east of Japan = +WPO Troughing (negative height anomalies) south and east of Japan = -WPO