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It's Always Sunny

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About It's Always Sunny

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    Dallas, TX

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  1. Hm ok try this link https://weatherchest.weebly.com/ I have it posted on my MA blog too if that one doesn’t work: http://www.baystatewx.blogspot.com .
  2. First shot at it. Enjoy! https://weatherchest.weebly.com/home/preliminary-winter-outlook-2022-2023
  3. I think it's too early to write anything off but when you take potential ENSO phase, -IOD, +QBO just to name a few teleconnections I'd lean towards an average season with potential for above average. ENSO will still be presumably weak La Nina, maybe neutral, which generally fares well for New England. Remember, you can have a temperature forecast be "above average", but it'll still be cold enough for snow most of the time. *EDIT* I also want to add that the years a +QBO & La Niña overlapped is only a three-year dataset which is very small so I would not put a lot of stock into that. If you just look at +QBO alone the setup is rather favorable.
  4. NMME generally does pretty good. Looking back to May it's done a rather stellar job for most of the country without getting into specifics.
  5. Something quick I threw together. Just keep in mind this focuses mainly on the QBO as a stand-alone along with possible ENSO influence. I haven’t yet sifted through the bulk of the teleconnection indices/models I usually refer to for a seasonal outlook. Time allowing I’ll try and put something together. https://baystatewx.blogspot.com/2022/08/qbo-and-its-potential-implications-on.html?spref=tw
  6. Wow models blew this one. Displayed are 00Z 3km-NAM & 06Z TTU WRF. Couple HRW models had no convection in S TX either. HRW FV3 & GFS were wayyyy too far north with convection. 18Z guidance yesterday was even better than these two models shown.
  7. There is a lot of mid-upper level dry air which has been modeled the entire time but it's saturated high enough to precipitate. From a weather geek standpoint it's not often you see a bone dry mid-upper level sounding with a low level stratiform deck that begins as liquid water and reaches the surface as sleet or freezing rain. It's more frequent to see precipitation begin as snow, melt and refreeze. Thankfully this stratiform type of setup allows everything to be light with low QPF amounts. However, to get sleet we will need some ice crystals which may be hard to attain given the static look to soundings. You would need colder temperatures in the boundary layer and likely slightly better lift than modeled to get the ice crystals necessary for that to materialize, otherwise we're looking at FZRA or FZDZ.
  8. Yeah the ECMWF hasn't done well with these shallow, cold air masses which explains why they are leaning colder. NAM could be too cold but I think leaning that way is good at the current lead time.
  9. 2-4" for BOS looking more reasonable based off 00Z suite.
  10. Next week's severe weather potential looking good per dry line setup in TX/OK. Low level moisture, CAPE (not shown), kinematics all in place. Not a bad look at all albeit a week out.
  11. Still lots of asymmetric spread but for snow weenies good to see it on the W/NW side. Obviously too far west isn't good but any sign that keeps this thing closer to the coast rather than OTS is a win for the time being.
  12. Had some spare time to put this together. Current modeled output resembles January 26-27, 2015 blizzard. Surprisingly most of these events occurred when the NAO was neutral-positive.
  13. Highs in the 40s isn't cold enough for you? . DFW may get close to 80F I'm loving every bit of it
  14. I think we're close to a lock to break the latest freeze record which is Jan 4th (1972).
  15. Meh on this potential IVT. Sniffing snizzle.
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